By 2027-06-30, fewer than three Fortune 500 companies outside the technology, semiconductor and cloud sectors will have disclosed, in an 8-K, annual report, or company-issued press release, an owned on-premises AI compute deployment of 50 MW or more.
warningby June 30, 2027Fortune 500
The ledger's disclosure-type questions (a named primary document by a hard date) resolve at 50% (n=29) against a book average of 53% (n=57); the software lens runs at 45% (n=20). Enterprises consume frontier compute through hyperscalers and neoclouds and have weak incentives to disclose owned megawatts. The thesis is falsified by three qualifying disclosures, not by trend pieces or vendor case studies.
By 2027-03-31, at least two of SK hynix, Samsung Electronics, and Micron state in an earnings release, earnings call, or company press release that their 2027 HBM supply is fully allocated, sold out, or substantially committed under long-term agreements.
callby March 31, 2027SK hynixSamsung ElectronicsMicronNVIDIA
Hardware-lens questions in the ledger resolve at 62% (n=12), the book's strongest lens, and the memory-allocation questions in particular have hit or partially hit. Memory makers have used 'sold out' language for the forward year once qualification is complete; two of three doing so for 2027 requires the supply-demand gap to persist through the Vera Rubin ramp. Falsified if fewer than two make the statement by the horizon.
By 2027-09-30, at least one publicly listed GPU-cloud operator (CoreWeave, Nebius, or another listed neocloud) discloses in an SEC filing a covenant waiver or amendment, a going-concern qualification, a missed debt service payment, or the loss of a customer representing 10% or more of remaining performance obligations.
warningby September 30, 2027CoreWeaveNebius
Capital-lens questions resolve at 71% (n=11). High-yield OAS is 2.65% as of 2026-09-03, so credit markets are not signalling stress today; the thesis is a duration-mismatch call, not a spread call: GPU useful lives, contract tenors, and amortising debt are misaligned and the first disclosure of a tenor gap is already in the ledger. Twelve months is enough for one renewal cycle to miss. Falsified if no listed neocloud files any of the four triggers.
Between 2026-09-06 and 2027-06-30, hyperscalers (Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, Oracle) announce, each in a primary company disclosure, at least three distinct new AI campuses or generation blocks of 500 MW or more that are explicitly behind-the-meter, co-located with dedicated generation, or described as power-first.
callby June 30, 2027MicrosoftAmazonAlphabetMeta
Power-lens questions are the book's most reliable: 70% (n=4). Behind-the-meter announcements have repeated because grid interconnection is the binding constraint: 13.9% of 2015-2020 interconnection requests had reached commercial operation by end-2025 (LBNL Queued Up, n=11622). Three announcements in ten months is a modest bar against the recent cadence; the risk is in the 500 MW and primary-disclosure qualifiers, not in the trend.
By 2027-06-30, at least three additional US states (beyond those counted at 2026-09-06) adopt, through enacted legislation or a public utility commission order, a statewide data-center moratorium, a discretionary-permit pause, or a large-load tariff or grid-interconnection rule.
callby June 30, 2027FERCPJMERCOT
State action clusters after visible ratepayer impact, and most 2027 legislative sessions convene in January, inside the horizon. The ledger's two live policy questions are single-leg threshold questions, a type that resolves at 65% (n=19). Three states in ten months is bold but measurable; county pauses do not count.
Of the ledger's live vendor-timing questions lq-p83, lq-p77, lq-p95, lq-p86, and lq-p33, at most two resolve as a hit by 2027-03-31 under their written resolution rules.
contrarianby March 31, 2027DeepSeekArtificial AnalysisSemiAnalysisOpen Compute Project
Timing-type questions in the ledger resolve at 39% (n=8) and multi-leg questions at 43% (n=14) versus 57% for single-leg (n=43). The five questions carry stated probabilities averaging above 0.6, which implies roughly three hits; the thesis says the book is still too generous to vendor dates. Falsified by three or more hits.