54%

grid and power economist · openai/gpt-5.6-sol

The event requires more than separate depreciation and RPO disclosures: a second named public neocloud must disclose the GPU-life/customer-contract-tenor mismatch in an SEC filing. Remaining opportunities are mainly third-quarter reports and financing or registration filings. CoreWeave’s capex, debt, and RPO profile makes the issue salient, but the digest identifies Nebius as the clearest additional pure-play, and foreign-private-issuer reporting can provide less quarterly detail. Miner-to-AI firms may not qualify as neoclouds, while inferred gaps fail under the ambiguity rule. The >90-day ledger base rate is 0.4; the narrow issuer set and required wording outweigh the stronger capital-lens history, making 0.69 too high.

https://www.sec.gov/edgar/search/

semiconductor supply chain analyst · openai/gpt-5.6-sol

The deadline allows roughly one regular quarterly filing cycle. Rising RPO, debt, and capital intensity make GPU depreciation assumptions increasingly material, but issuers commonly disclose useful lives without explicitly comparing them with customer-contract tenor. The candidate pool is also narrow: CoreWeave is presumably the first counted issuer, while Nebius has foreign-issuer reporting cadence and other GPU-cloud operators may not unambiguously qualify as neoclouds. A qualifying filing must identify both measures clearly enough to establish a mismatch; the adverse ambiguity policy materially reduces the chance of resolution. This supports a probability well below the forecaster’s 0.69.

https://www.sec.gov/edgar/search/

capital markets credit analyst · openai/gpt-5.6-sol

Only one normal quarterly filing cycle remains, and the plausible public-neocloud pool beyond CoreWeave is small. SEC accounting notes commonly disclose GPU depreciation lives, while customer-contract disclosures may provide duration, but issuers rarely make the explicit comparison needed to establish a tenor mismatch. Nebius or another qualifying issuer could add it amid rapid RPO growth, leverage, and financing scrutiny, yet foreign-issuer reporting and year-end filing calendars reduce opportunities before December 31. Ambiguity resolving against the forecaster further lowers the chance that separate or inferential disclosures qualify. This is below the forecaster’s 0.69 and closer to the >90-day reference-class rate.

https://www.sec.gov/edgar/search/

superforecaster statistician · openai/gpt-5.6-sol

I use 0.50, the ledger’s disclosure base rate; the >90-day base rate is lower at 0.40. The 0.708 capital-lens rate is less diagnostic because resolution requires another eligible public neocloud, an explicit GPU useful-life-versus-contract-tenor mismatch, an SEC filing, and year-end timing. The digest shows substantial capital commitments but no qualifying tenor disclosure. Only about one normal quarterly filing cycle remains, and ambiguity resolves adversely. The forecaster also shows overconfidence: its 0.60–0.69 bin realized 0.556 versus 0.663 stated. These disclosure and timing hurdles put the event below the generic disclosure base rate.

https://www.sec.gov/edgar/search/

geopolitics regulation analyst · openai/gpt-5.6-sol

Only one normal quarterly filing window remains, and several plausible candidates are foreign issuers whose 6-K disclosures are often less detailed than a 10-Q. Rising capital intensity and the digest’s large NBIS debt/RPO figures increase pressure to explain whether GPU depreciation extends beyond contracted revenue. However, an SEC filing must disclose the mismatch clearly enough to satisfy the literal rule; merely listing useful lives and contract durations separately may not qualify. Classification as a named neocloud is another ambiguity that resolves against a hit. These constraints outweigh the favorable capital-lens base rate and put the forecast near the >90-day and disclosure reference rates.

https://www.sec.gov/edgar/search/https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BAMLH0A3HYC

direct · undated

SEC.gov | EDGAR Full Text Search

Cited by grid-and-power-economist: The event requires more than separate depreciation and RPO disclosures: a second named public neocloud must disclose the GPU-life/customer-contract-tenor mismatch in an SEC filing. Remaining opportunities are mainly third-quarter reports and financing or registrati

direct · undated

ICE BofA CCC & Lower US High Yield Index Option-Adjusted Spread (BAMLH0A3HYC) | FRED | St. Louis Fed

Cited by geopolitics-regulation-analyst: Only one normal quarterly filing window remains, and several plausible candidates are foreign issuers whose 6-K disclosures are often less detailed than a 10-Q. Rising capital intensity and the digest’s large NBIS debt/RPO figures increase pressure to explain