52%

grid and power economist · openai/gpt-5.6-sol

Only one normal quarterly filing window remains. The publicly traded neocloud set is small, and several plausible candidates are foreign private issuers or firms whose classification as a neocloud is contestable. The filing must explicitly disclose a mismatch between GPU useful life and customer-contract tenor; separate depreciation, backlog, or concentration disclosures are insufficient under the adverse ambiguity rule. A November 10-Q or transaction registration statement remains a credible catalyst, especially given high capital intensity and tighter credit, but neither guarantees the required comparison. This is materially below 0.69 because no second qualifying filing has appeared by October 19.

https://www.sec.gov/edgar/search/

semiconductor supply chain analyst · openai/gpt-5.6-sol

The remaining window includes one quarterly filing cycle, but the eligible issuer set is small. Beyond CoreWeave, several plausible neoclouds are private, foreign private issuers with less frequent SEC reporting, or companies whose classification as a neocloud is debatable. Filings commonly disclose GPU depreciation lives, yet contract tenor is often omitted, aggregated, or described outside the filing; the rule requires both and ambiguity resolves against a hit. Tightening credit conditions increase investor scrutiny but do not force this specific accounting disclosure. The forecaster’s 0.69 also exceeds its realized 0.548 outcome rate in the corresponding confidence band.

https://www.sec.gov/edgar/search/

capital markets credit analyst · openai/gpt-5.6-sol

Only one normal quarterly filing cycle remains, and the rule requires a second qualifying public neocloud plus disclosure of both GPU useful life and shorter contract tenor. Q3 10-Q/6-K filings may disclose depreciation assumptions, but customer-contract duration is less routinely quantified, especially by foreign private issuers. Financing-related 8-Ks provide another route, and sharply wider single-B spreads could increase investor scrutiny, but they do not force this exact comparison. Strict naming and ambiguity rules make the forecaster’s 0.69 too high despite rapid sector capex and RPO growth.

https://www.sec.gov/edgar/search/

superforecaster statistician · openai/gpt-5.6-sol

I use the disclosure-question base rate of 0.461. I adjust downward because resolution requires a second qualifying public neocloud, an explicit comparison of GPU useful life with contract tenor, and an SEC filing within only 73 days; ambiguity over issuer classification or wording counts as failure. One quarterly filing cycle remains, and heavy capital spending plus tighter credit conditions make asset-life scrutiny more plausible, but accounting disclosures need not state the comparison directly. The forecaster’s 0.60–0.69 band realized only 0.548, indicating overconfidence and reinforcing a substantial discount from 0.69.

https://www.sec.gov/edgar/search/

geopolitics regulation analyst · openai/gpt-5.6-sol

Only one regular quarterly filing cycle remains, and the eligible publicly traded neocloud universe is small. A hit requires an SEC filing—not an earnings call or investor presentation—that makes both GPU useful life and contract tenor sufficiently explicit to establish a mismatch. Foreign issuers may provide abbreviated 6-K updates rather than full accounting-policy disclosures. Rising credit spreads increase the chance of financing-related filings and risk-factor detail, but the strict document and ambiguity rules keep the probability below the forecaster’s 0.69 and the capital-lens base rate.

https://www.sec.gov/edgar/search/

direct · undated

SEC.gov | EDGAR Full Text Search

Cited by grid-and-power-economist: Only one normal quarterly filing window remains. The publicly traded neocloud set is small, and several plausible candidates are foreign private issuers or firms whose classification as a neocloud is contestable. The filing must explicitly disclose a mismatch betwe