32%

grid and power economist · openai/gpt-5.6-sol

A qualifying statewide moratorium or permit pause is much rarer than local restrictions, tariff proceedings, studies, or proposed bills. Most state legislatures are not in regular session this late in October, while PUC orders ordinarily require a visible docket process; an executive order remains possible but politically unusual. The supplied record identifies no qualifying second-state instrument, and only 12 days remain. The strict document requirement and adverse ambiguity policy further reduce the chance that a loosely described policy announcement qualifies. The forecaster’s 0.50–0.59 band has realized only 0.375, supporting a substantial haircut from 0.57.

semiconductor supply chain analyst · openai/gpt-5.6-sol

Only 12 days remain, and most state legislatures are out of session, leaving executive or PUC action as the plausible routes. Such statewide pauses typically require visible docket activity, hearings, or an emerging grid-reliability crisis; none is identified in the supplied evidence. Power constraints create political pressure, but studies, tariff proceedings, local moratoria, and ordinary discretionary permitting would not satisfy the literal rule. The narrow document requirement and ambiguity policy further reduce the chance of a qualifying second-state action by October 31.

capital markets credit analyst · openai/gpt-5.6-sol

Only 12 days remain, and the supplied digest identifies no pending qualifying state action. A statute is unlikely on this timetable absent an already-advanced bill; a PUC order generally requires a noticed proceeding; an executive order could occur quickly but remains uncommon. The original 0.57 covered roughly 105 days, and survival to October 19 sharply reduces the remaining-window probability. The strict source requirement and exclusion of local pauses further lower the chance of resolution.

superforecaster statistician · openai/gpt-5.6-sol

Base rate: 0.30 from the forecaster’s matching 0.50–0.59 confidence reference class; the broader calibration bin realized only 0.375 versus 0.586 stated, indicating overconfidence. I adjust sharply downward because only 12 days remain, most state legislatures are not positioned to enact new restrictions quickly, and resolution requires a formal state executive order, statute, or PUC order—not proposals, rhetoric, or local pauses. The requirement for a second state and ambiguity resolving against the forecast add documentation risk. The small power-lens sample is too broad and noisy to outweigh the short remaining window.

geopolitics regulation analyst · openai/gpt-5.6-sol

Only 12 days remain, and the qualifying action must come from a state executive order, statute, or PUC order—not the more common county or municipal pause. Most legislatures are out of regular session, while statutes and consequential PUC orders generally require visible procedural lead time. A governor could act quickly, but a statewide data-center moratorium immediately before the November election would be unusually abrupt. The power-policy reference class is favorable but tiny; survival without a qualifying second-state action through nearly the entire forecast window dominates the conditional estimate. Ambiguity also weighs against counting narrower studies, reporting requirements, or utility-service restrictions.