45%

grid and power economist · openai/gpt-5.6-sol

Only 73 days remain, and the rule requires an actual submitted specification documented by OCP; a workstream, roadmap, draft discussion, or partner announcement fails. AI-photonics urgency and the possibility of repurposing existing member work support a year-end submission. However, consensus, intellectual-property review, and OCP governance can readily push a first specification into 2027. The forecaster’s networking base rate is only 0.346, and no qualifying document appears in the supplied evidence. I therefore discount the earlier 0.61 forecast.

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semiconductor supply chain analyst · openai/gpt-5.6-sol

This is below the forecaster’s 0.61. OCP working groups can advance quickly, but first specifications require technical convergence, contributor review, and publication formalities; workstream launches or roadmap statements do not qualify. With only 73 days left and no qualifying OCP publication identified in the supplied evidence, the annual summit window offers limited remaining schedule margin. The networking reference-class rate of 0.346 and strict ambiguity rule further argue against treating a year-end target as likely, although AI-photonics urgency keeps the probability material.

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capital markets credit analyst · openai/gpt-5.6-sol

A first specification is plausible because AI-scale optical interconnects have strong industry momentum, but the rule requires an actual submitted specification documented by OCP—not merely a workstream, draft roadmap, or announcement. With only 73 days remaining, standards coordination, contributor review, and year-end scheduling create meaningful timing risk. The forecaster’s networking outcomes are notably weak, and its 0.60–0.69 forecasts have resolved below stated confidence. I therefore discount the earlier 0.61 estimate.

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superforecaster statistician · openai/gpt-5.6-sol

I use the networking-lens base rate of 0.346, the most specific reference class. This is a single-leg question, but it requires a concrete first specification and observable OCP publication by a hard deadline; a workstream announcement explicitly does not qualify. With only 73 days remaining and no cited draft, submission notice, or publication timetable, standards-process slippage warrants a downward adjustment. The forecaster’s 0.60–0.69 calls realized near 0.55 overall, while their networking calls realized only 0.346, indicating 0.61 is overconfident here. Company demand indicators do not verify specification progress.

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geopolitics regulation analyst · openai/gpt-5.6-sol

The relevant networking base rate is only 0.346, and OCP workstreams commonly announce scope before producing a formally submitted specification. The remaining 73 days include the post-summit drafting window and year-end slowdown. AI-photonics urgency and summit-driven contribution cycles provide upside, but the literal rule requires an identifiable submitted specification, not a roadmap, presentation, or project announcement. Publication and document-status ambiguity therefore reduce the estimate below the forecaster’s 0.61.

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Cited by grid-and-power-economist: Only 73 days remain, and the rule requires an actual submitted specification documented by OCP; a workstream, roadmap, draft discussion, or partner announcement fails. AI-photonics urgency and the possibility of repurposing existing member work support a year-end s