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brianletort.aiD. Brian Letort, Ph.D.

AI Market · Forecast desk · hit · capital

65% · hit

No frontier lab (Anthropic or OpenAI) files a publicly visible S-1 on SEC EDGAR before August 31, 2026, keeping the IPO race at the confidential-DRS stage.

Back to the bookIssue 2026-W22Evidence ↗

Outcome

hitcalled at 65%resolved September 1, 2026brier contribution 0.122

Neither Anthropic nor OpenAI converted its confidential draft to a publicly visible S-1 on SEC EDGAR before Aug 31, 2026 — only the Jun 1 confidential submission and DRS-stage filings remained non-public through the deadline.

Evidence: https://decodethefuture.org/en/anthropic-s1-ipo-filing-explained/