20%

grid and power economist · openai/gpt-5.6-sol

The strict requirement is not merely custom-product growth but a dollar amount explicitly attributable to Google. Marvell and peers usually discuss custom-silicon revenue in aggregate and avoid naming customer-level contributions. The remaining window is also short: Marvell’s fiscal-third-quarter reporting has generally occurred around early December, so the next normal 10-Q and call may fall after November 30. Strong companywide revenue growth does not materially raise the probability of customer-specific attribution. The forecaster’s 0.34 appears too high given both disclosure practice and calendar risk.

https://www.sec.gov/edgar/browse/?CIK=1835632&owner=excludehttps://investor.marvell.com/

semiconductor supply chain analyst · openai/gpt-5.6-sol

Strict resolution requires both dollars and explicit Google attribution, not merely custom-silicon growth. Marvell generally discusses hyperscaler programs without naming customer-level revenue, while customer-concentration disclosures typically anonymize counterparties. Its quarter ending around October 31 has historically been reported in early December, so the November 30 cutoff likely excludes the next normal 10-Q and earnings call. The remaining paths are an unusually early report or a qualifying disclosure on the late-August call; both are unlikely, especially with ambiguity resolving against the forecaster.

https://investor.marvell.com/https://www.sec.gov/edgar/search/

capital markets credit analyst · openai/gpt-5.6-sol

The deadline likely falls before Marvell’s fiscal third-quarter 10-Q and earnings call, historically held around late November or early December. An intervening qualifying disclosure is therefore unlikely. Even if the call occurs by November 30, Marvell would need to both name Google and quantify attributable Custom Products revenue; semiconductor vendors usually discuss aggregate custom-silicon growth while preserving customer anonymity. The reported companywide revenue growth does not imply this unusually specific disclosure.

https://investor.marvell.com/https://www.sec.gov/edgar/browse/?CIK=1835632&owner=exclude

superforecaster statistician · openai/gpt-5.6-sol

I use the disclosure-question base rate of 0.461. This resolution is substantially harder than an ordinary disclosure: Marvell must provide attributable dollars and explicitly tie them to Google; generic Custom Products growth or an inferred hyperscaler fails. Customer confidentiality makes that specificity uncommon. Only 42 days remain, and the next regular quarterly call may fall near or after the November 30 cutoff. MRVL’s 31% trailing revenue growth supports underlying demand but says nothing about named-customer attribution. The forecaster’s 0.3–0.4 calibration bin has only one case, so it provides little evidence for retaining 0.34.

https://www.sec.gov/edgar/browse/?CIK=1835632&owner=exclude

geopolitics regulation analyst · openai/gpt-5.6-sol

The deadline likely falls before Marvell’s normal fiscal Q3 reporting window, historically around late November or early December, leaving limited opportunity for an eligible 10-Q or earnings call. Even if reporting occurs by November 30, Marvell would need to provide actual Custom Products dollars and explicitly connect them to Google. Hyperscaler customer confidentiality and the rule rejecting generic Custom growth make that substantially less likely than merely discussing a ramp. This is well below the forecaster’s 0.34.

https://www.sec.gov/edgar/browse/?CIK=1835632&owner=excludehttps://investor.marvell.com/

direct · undated

EDGAR Entity Landing Page

Cited by grid-and-power-economist: The strict requirement is not merely custom-product growth but a dollar amount explicitly attributable to Google. Marvell and peers usually discuss custom-silicon revenue in aggregate and avoid naming customer-level contributions. The remaining window is also short

direct · undated

Investor Relations | Marvell Technology, Inc. (MRVL)

Cited by grid-and-power-economist: The strict requirement is not merely custom-product growth but a dollar amount explicitly attributable to Google. Marvell and peers usually discuss custom-silicon revenue in aggregate and avoid naming customer-level contributions. The remaining window is also short

direct · undated

SEC.gov | EDGAR Full Text Search

Cited by semiconductor-supply-chain-analyst: Strict resolution requires both dollars and explicit Google attribution, not merely custom-silicon growth. Marvell generally discusses hyperscaler programs without naming customer-level revenue, while customer-concentration disclosures typically anonymize