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brianletort.aiD. Brian Letort, Ph.D.

AI Market · Forecast desk · hit · capital

62% · hit

Neither OpenAI nor Anthropic converts its confidential draft to a publicly visible S-1 on SEC EDGAR before August 31, 2026.

Back to the bookIssue 2026-W24Evidence ↗

Outcome

hitcalled at 62%resolved September 1, 2026brier contribution 0.144

SEC EDGAR had no publicly visible OpenAI or Anthropic S-1 through Aug 31, 2026; both remained at the confidential-DRS stage after their June confidential submissions.

Evidence: https://decodethefuture.org/en/anthropic-s1-ipo-filing-explained/