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84% · hit

DeepSeek V4's official GA pricing does not reset the ultra-cheap floor: off-peak deepseek-v4-pro output pricing stays at or above ¥6 (~$0.85) per MTok through August 31, 2026 — the kill-condition test for this issue's price-band-convergence claim.

Outcome

hitcalled at 84%resolved September 1, 2026brier contribution 0.026

DeepSeek's official API pricing page kept GA deepseek-v4-pro off-peak output at $1.98/MTok (~¥14+) through Aug 31 — well above the ¥6 (~$0.85)/MTok ultra-cheap floor the trigger set as the kill condition.

Evidence: https://api-docs.deepseek.com/quick_start/pricing/