53%

grid and power economist · openai/gpt-5.6-sol

The deadline requires a specific PSC-filed agreement, not merely a campus announcement or utility negotiations. No docket number, executed agreement, named regulated utility counterparty, or published filing schedule is provided. Seventy-three days is enough to file an already-negotiated special contract, and filing can precede interconnection completion, so long queue-to-COD timelines are not decisive. However, large-load agreements commonly slip over cost allocation, security, confidentiality, and network-upgrade terms. The forecaster’s disclosure base rate is 0.461, while its 0.60–0.69 forecasts have realized below stated confidence. The hard deadline and ambiguity rule support a material discount from 0.63.

https://psc.ky.gov/

semiconductor supply chain analyst · openai/gpt-5.6-sol

Only 73 days remain, and the supplied digest contains no project-specific utility milestone or Kentucky PSC docket evidence. The power reference class is favorable but based on only six cases; broader disclosure and confidence-band outcomes are near 0.5. A negotiated or announced power arrangement would not satisfy the literal rule unless a PSA or equivalent is file-stamped. Rising rates and sharply wider single-B spreads add modest execution risk. The hard deadline and ambiguity-against policy justify moving below the August forecast.

https://psc.ky.gov/

capital markets credit analyst · openai/gpt-5.6-sol

The threshold is easier than approval because a file-stamped petition or equivalent is sufficient. However, the supplied evidence shows no project-specific milestone such as an executed agreement, utility authorization, assigned docket, or announced filing schedule. Negotiating a special power contract and preparing supporting cost, load, and rate materials can consume the remaining 73 days, especially across year-end calendars. The power reference class is favorable but has only six observations; broader disclosure and long-horizon classes are near 0.4–0.46. The forecaster’s 0.60–0.69 band has also realized below stated confidence. Strict campus identification and ambiguity treatment further reduce the estimate below 0.63.

https://psc.ky.gov/

superforecaster statistician · openai/gpt-5.6-sol

I use the disclosure-question base rate of 0.461, cross-checked against the >90-day class at 0.404 and single-leg class at 0.549. The power-lens rate is 0.786 but rests on only six resolutions, so it receives little weight. A PSA may be progressing without timely public filing, but resolution requires a file-stamped PSA or equivalent by a hard date, and ambiguity counts as failure. The digest provides no Paducah-specific docket evidence. The forecaster’s 0.60–0.69 band realized only 0.548, indicating overconfidence relative to 0.63.

https://psc.ky.gov/

geopolitics regulation analyst · openai/gpt-5.6-sol

The filing-only threshold is easier than approval, and large-load special contracts can be submitted quickly once utility negotiations conclude. However, 73 days is tight for finalizing load, security, infrastructure-cost, and service terms, with year-end holidays reducing the practical window. The exact-campus and file-stamp requirements also exclude announcements, preliminary agreements, or filings under an unclear project name. Power-related questions have performed well in the ledger, but the larger disclosure and long-horizon classes are near or below one-half. Absent identified docket activity, ambiguity resolving against the forecast keeps this below even odds.

https://psc.ky.gov/

direct · undated

KY PSC Home

Cited by grid-and-power-economist: The deadline requires a specific PSC-filed agreement, not merely a campus announcement or utility negotiations. No docket number, executed agreement, named regulated utility counterparty, or published filing schedule is provided. Seventy-three days is enough to fil