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brianletort.aiD. Brian Letort, Ph.D.

AI Market · Forecast desk · hit · hardware

65% · hit

Before August 31, 2026, at least one memory supplier or supply-chain analyst reports HBM4 allocation tightness despite three-supplier qualification.

Back to the bookIssue 2026-W23Evidence ↗

Outcome

hitcalled at 65%resolved September 1, 2026brier contribution 0.122

Before Aug 31, supply-chain and trade press documented HBM4 allocation tightness despite three-supplier qualification: Seoul Economic Daily (Aug 31) reported spot HBM prices at 4–5x LTA levels with customers not receiving full contracted volumes even under LTAs.

Evidence: https://en.sedaily.com/finance/2026/08/31/spot-hbm-prices-hit-5-times-contract-levels