49%

grid and power economist · openai/gpt-5.6-sol

The multi-state opportunity set helps, but only 116 days remain and most legislatures are out of regular session. A qualifying second state therefore likely requires an already-advanced PUC docket or a scheduled final order, not merely a proposal, utility tariff filing, or policy announcement. Notice-and-comment timelines and year-end commission calendars make slippage material. The strict, ambiguity-against-forecaster rule also leaves uncertainty over what constitutes a “data-center grid rule” and which state was already counted. I am slightly below the forecaster’s 0.39.

semiconductor supply chain analyst · openai/gpt-5.6-sol

Multiple candidate states face acute large-load interconnection and cost-allocation pressure, giving PUCs a plausible path to publish tariffs or rules before year-end. Texas and Virginia are the strongest procedural candidates, while Ohio and Georgia provide additional opportunities. However, only 116 days remain, most legislatures are out of regular session, and commission dockets frequently slip into the next calendar year. The requirement that this be a second qualifying state—and ambiguity resolving against the forecast—also means a proposal, utility tariff, or generic large-load action may not count. I place the probability modestly above the prior forecaster estimate but below even odds.

capital markets credit analyst · openai/gpt-5.6-sol

Only one additional qualifying state is needed, and several listed PUCs face acute large-load interconnection and cost-allocation issues. However, just 116 days remain; most 2026 legislatures have adjourned, leaving PUC proceedings as the main path. Final tariffs or orders commonly slip across year-end, while proposals, utility filings, studies, or broadly applicable grid reforms may not satisfy the strict “data-center grid rule” language. The timing reference-class rate near 0.39 is more relevant than the small power sample. I therefore place the probability close to, but slightly below, the forecaster’s 0.39.

https://www.scc.virginia.gov/https://puco.ohio.gov/

superforecaster statistician · openai/gpt-5.6-sol

Base rate: 0.40, combining the forecaster’s >90-day (0.40) and timing-question (0.389) classes; the 0.70 power-lens rate has only four observations and receives little weight. Multiple eligible states create opportunity, but only 116 days remain and resolution requires formal publication by a state PUC or legislature—not proposals, workshops, utility tariffs, or post-deadline adoption. Legislative calendars, rulemaking notice periods, and the ambiguity-against-forecaster policy warrant a modest discount. The forecaster’s 0.39 is close; their low-confidence calibration bin has only one case and provides no reliable correction.

geopolitics regulation analyst · openai/gpt-5.6-sol

The strongest reference classes are timing (0.389) and >90-day horizon (0.400). By September, most relevant legislatures have finished regular sessions, leaving fall PUC orders, Ohio’s continuing session, Illinois’s veto session, or special-session action. Grid-capacity pressure and policy clustering create several plausible paths, but the rule must be officially published by year-end and involve a newly qualifying state; proposals, studies, utility filings, or ambiguous general large-load measures may not count. With only 116 days and ambiguity resolving against the forecast, I place this modestly below the timing base rate.

https://www.scc.virginia.gov/https://puco.ohio.gov/https://www.icc.illinois.gov/

direct · undated

Virginia SCC - Home

Cited by capital-markets-credit-analyst: Only one additional qualifying state is needed, and several listed PUCs face acute large-load interconnection and cost-allocation issues. However, just 116 days remain; most 2026 legislatures have adjourned, leaving PUC proceedings as the main path. Final tar

direct · undated

Public Utilities Commission of Ohio

Cited by capital-markets-credit-analyst: Only one additional qualifying state is needed, and several listed PUCs face acute large-load interconnection and cost-allocation issues. However, just 116 days remain; most 2026 legislatures have adjourned, leaving PUC proceedings as the main path. Final tar

direct · undated

Illinois Commerce Commission

Cited by geopolitics-regulation-analyst: The strongest reference classes are timing (0.389) and >90-day horizon (0.400). By September, most relevant legislatures have finished regular sessions, leaving fall PUC orders, Ohio’s continuing session, Illinois’s veto session, or special-session action. Gr