13% · live — Samsung HBM4 reaches greater than 25% share of NVIDIA Vera Rubin BOM by Q3 2026

Probability history

Called at 60% on May 1, 2026. Repriced 1 time; now 13%. 24 days to deadline.

How the number was built

Final method: stacked-fixed-weights (resolved n=57 < 80). Each rung is an independent estimate; the final is a stacked combination.

Stated (issue date)60%

Reference class (n=29)50%

Recalibrated55%

Feature model49%

Council2%

Final13%

Drivers

Reference class qtype:disclosure runs 0.50 (n=29) vs stated 0.60.
Hierarchical calibration moves stated 0.60 to 0.55 (lens hardware, kappa_stated=24.0, kappa_lens=200.0).
Feature model at 0.49: conjuncts=1, named disclosure=True, horizon=152d.
Council of 5 at 0.02.

Cautions

1 cited URL(s) failed verification and were dropped.

Council

5 personas across 2 models, aggregated by extremized log odds mean.

grid and power economist · openai/gpt-5.6-sol

The disclosure hurdle dominates the hardware question. NVIDIA generally does not publish supplier-level HBM allocation, and Samsung is unlikely to quantify its share of a customer’s BOM. The supplied digest includes NVIDIA’s quarter ending July 26 but no qualifying mix disclosure. Samsung’s Q3 reporting would ordinarily arrive after the September 30 deadline. A trade-source estimate might appear within 24 days, but the rule requires a named Q3 2026 mix above 25% tied to primary filings; generic qualification, supply, or expected-share reports fail. Ambiguity also resolves against a hit. The forecaster’s 0.6 substantially understates this documentation risk.

semiconductor supply chain analyst · gemini/gemini-3.5-flash

NVIDIA and Samsung do not disclose vendor-specific BOM shares in primary filings due to commercial confidentiality, making a citing industry mix print virtually impossible. Additionally, NVIDIA's Rubin (Vera Rubin) platform is not yet in high-volume production as of Q3 2026, with HBM4 volume shipments slated for late 2026 or 2027. Given that today is September 6, 2026, and the deadline is September 30, 2026, the strict requirement for primary disclosure of a >25% BOM share cannot be met under current industry timelines and reporting standards.

capital markets credit analyst · openai/gpt-5.6-sol

The economic claim may be plausible, but the resolution hurdle is much narrower. NVIDIA and Samsung rarely disclose supplier-specific BOM shares, especially an exact quarterly threshold, because sourcing allocations are commercially sensitive. A qualification announcement, supply agreement, or analyst estimate would not suffice. With only 24 days remaining, a qualifying named-mix publication must both state Samsung exceeds 25% for Q3 2026 and cite the required primary filings. The forecaster’s 0.6 materially underweights this disclosure risk and the resolves-against policy.

superforecaster statistician · gemini/gemini-3.5-flash

Using a base rate of 0.50 for disclosure-type questions, we adjust this significantly downward. The deadline is September 30, 2026, but official Q3 2026 reports from Samsung and NVIDIA will not be released until October and November 2026, respectively. Furthermore, semiconductor companies do not disclose proprietary Bill of Materials (BOM) vendor shares in primary SEC filings or earnings releases. Finally, NVIDIA's Rubin platform is scheduled for late 2026 or 2027, making Q3 2026 volume shipments of Rubin with HBM4 highly unlikely. Given these severe timing, confidentiality, and product roadmap hurdles, a qualifying disclosure by the deadline is virtually impossible.

https://investor.nvidia.com https://www.samsung.com

14%

geopolitics regulation analyst · openai/gpt-5.6-sol

The underlying supply outcome is plausible, but the resolution hurdle is much stricter: an exact Samsung share above 25%, tied specifically to Vera Rubin and Q3 2026, must appear by September 30. NVIDIA and Samsung generally avoid disclosing supplier allocation percentages, while filings rarely contain product-level memory mix. Only 24 days remain, and the supplied public digest contains no qualifying mix disclosure. A trade report based on analyst inference would fail; “BOM share” also risks ambiguity versus unit or supply share, which resolves against the forecast. These documentary constraints outweigh the hardware reference-class base rate.

https://investor.nvidia.com/

Evidence the engine used

direct · undated

NVIDIA Corporation - Home

Cited by superforecaster-statistician: Using a base rate of 0.50 for disclosure-type questions, we adjust this significantly downward. The deadline is September 30, 2026, but official Q3 2026 reports from Samsung and NVIDIA will not be released until October and November 2026, respectively. Furtherm

direct · undated

direct · undated

NVIDIA Corporation - Home

Cited by geopolitics-regulation-analyst: The underlying supply outcome is plausible, but the resolution hurdle is much stricter: an exact Samsung share above 25%, tied specifically to Vera Rubin and Q3 2026, must appear by September 30. NVIDIA and Samsung generally avoid disclosing supplier allocati