AI Market · Radar · as of September 7, 2026
30 theses across 8 arenas and three horizons. Each one is pre-registered with the consensus it disagrees with, the public series that will show whether it is on track, the milestones it has to clear, and the observation that would kill it. Bold is measured as distance from consensus, not as confidence.
What this is. The macro book. The Ledger below it scores short, dated questions and is honest that four months in it is still near a coin flip (Brier 0.200 against 0.184 for 50-50). The Radar carries the calls that take years to resolve. It gets its own scoreboard so it cannot borrow credibility from the Ledger, or launder a bad year into it. Operators, allocators, and anyone building in AI.
The sharpest disagreements with consensus, excluding market calls. Screenshot any one of them; the date and the number travel with it.
On 2028-12-31 the top-ranked model on the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index carries a list output price of at least $20 per million tokens on its first-party API, even as trailing-tier prices keep falling.
far above consensusresolves December 31, 2028
BLS national employment of customer service representatives (SOC 43-4051) in the May 2032 Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics is at least 30% below the May 2025 level of 2,595,750, that is below 1,817,000.
far above consensusresolves June 30, 2033
BLS payroll employment in computer systems design and related services (NAICS 5415, series CES6054150001, seasonally adjusted) prints at or below 2,300 thousand in at least one month with a reference period on or before 2029-11-30, about 6% below its 2024 peak, while BLS projects the industry to grow 15.8% over the decade.
far above consensusresolves December 31, 2029
By 2029-12-31 at least one of Alphabet, Microsoft, or Amazon discloses in a Form 10-K or 10-Q that the estimated useful life of servers, or of a separately identified class of AI accelerators, has been reduced to four years or less.
far above consensusresolves December 31, 2029
Microsoft publicly states at least 100 million paid Microsoft 365 Copilot seats in an earnings release, earnings call, or SEC filing dated on or before 2028-12-31.
far above consensusresolves December 31, 2028
By 2031-12-31 at least two of Amazon, Microsoft, Meta, and Oracle publicly disclose a production AI training or inference deployment whose scale-up domain of 64 or more accelerators is connected by an open-standard fabric (UALink or an Ethernet scale-up specification published by UEC or the Open Compute Project) rather than NVLink or a proprietary in-house interconnect.
far above consensusresolves December 31, 2031
Nine arenas. One tile each with the sharpest call and how its indicators are running. The Power and Sites arena renders only under written employer sign-off.
50% · Broadcom AI silicon reaches a quarter of NVIDIA datacenter
Gated. Written and registered offline; renders when the sign-off names it.
75% · Open scale-up fabrics run in two hyperscalers by 2031
70% · The frontier tier keeps its price through 2028
65% · METR does not certify a one-month agent horizon
45% · Customer service jobs fall 30% by 2032
70% · Google Search revenue never shrinks through 2032
45% · A big-three cloud cuts server life to four years
85% · NVIDIA China share stays under 10% through FY2029
Every visible thesis, sorted by how far it sits from the published consensus. Where consensus is quoted in other units, the card shows the probability it implies and says so. Most theses sit above their consensus because each is written in the direction I disagree; the sign is framing, the size is the claim. Filter by arena, horizon, or kind.
showing 30 of 30
70%vs 20% implied · engine 62%
On 2028-12-31 the top-ranked model on the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index carries a list output price of at least $20 per million tokens on its first-party API, even as trailing-tier prices keep falling.
far above consensus · 3 rungs · resolves December 31, 2028the card ↗
45%vs 10% implied · engine 39%
BLS national employment of customer service representatives (SOC 43-4051) in the May 2032 Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics is at least 30% below the May 2025 level of 2,595,750, that is below 1,817,000.
far above consensus · 3 rungs · resolves June 30, 2033the card ↗
70%vs 25% implied · engine 91%
BLS payroll employment in computer systems design and related services (NAICS 5415, series CES6054150001, seasonally adjusted) prints at or below 2,300 thousand in at least one month with a reference period on or before 2029-11-30, about 6% below its 2024 peak, while BLS projects the industry to grow 15.8% over the decade.
far above consensus · 2 rungs · resolves December 31, 2029the card ↗
45%vs 15% implied · engine 82%
By 2029-12-31 at least one of Alphabet, Microsoft, or Amazon discloses in a Form 10-K or 10-Q that the estimated useful life of servers, or of a separately identified class of AI accelerators, has been reduced to four years or less.
far above consensus · 2 rungs · resolves December 31, 2029the card ↗
60%vs 25% implied · engine 29%
Microsoft publicly states at least 100 million paid Microsoft 365 Copilot seats in an earnings release, earnings call, or SEC filing dated on or before 2028-12-31.
far above consensus · 2 rungs · resolves December 31, 2028the card ↗
75%vs 40% implied · engine 52%
By 2031-12-31 at least two of Amazon, Microsoft, Meta, and Oracle publicly disclose a production AI training or inference deployment whose scale-up domain of 64 or more accelerators is connected by an open-standard fabric (UALink or an Ethernet scale-up specification published by UEC or the Open Compute Project) rather than NVLink or a proprietary in-house interconnect.
far above consensus · 3 rungs · resolves December 31, 2031the card ↗
50%vs 20% implied · engine 9%
Broadcom's reported quarterly AI semiconductor revenue reaches at least 25% of NVIDIA's Data Center segment revenue for the nearest-ending NVIDIA fiscal quarter in at least one quarter reported on or before 2027-12-31.
clearly above consensus · 2 rungs · resolves December 31, 2027the card ↗
85%vs 60% implied · engine 89%
China (including Hong Kong) accounts for less than 10% of NVIDIA's total revenue in each of its fiscal 2027, 2028, and 2029 Forms 10-K, meaning US export controls permanently remove China as a material NVIDIA market.
clearly above consensus · 2 rungs · resolves March 31, 2029the card ↗
70%vs 40% implied · engine 52%
Alphabet's reported Google Search & other revenue grows year over year in every fiscal year from 2026 through 2032, with no annual decline despite AI assistants taking query share.
clearly above consensus · 3 rungs · resolves March 31, 2033the card ↗
65%vs 35% implied · engine 56%
METR does not publish a 50%-success time-horizon point estimate of 160 work-hours (one working month) or more for any publicly released model on its Time Horizons page on or before 2028-12-31.
clearly above consensus · 3 rungs · resolves December 31, 2028the card ↗
65%vs 35% implied · engine 42%
Epoch AI's FrontierMath Open Problems page credits AI systems with verified solutions to at least 10 of the listed unsolved research-level problems on or before 2028-12-31.
clearly above consensus · 3 rungs · resolves December 31, 2028the card ↗
80%vs 55% implied · engine 68%
A model posts a resolved rate of at least 90.0% on the SWE-bench Pro public leaderboard (Scale AI, public problem set) on or before 2027-12-31.
clearly above consensus · resolves December 31, 2027the card ↗
35%vs 15% implied · engine 80%
In at least one calendar quarter ending on or before 2031-12-31, NVIDIA's Data Center revenue is less than 50% of the merchant AI accelerator revenue pool, defined as NVIDIA Data Center plus AMD Data Center segment plus Broadcom AI semiconductor plus Marvell Data Center segment revenue.
clearly above consensus · 3 rungs · resolves December 31, 2031the card ↗
50%vs 25% implied · engine 51%
Fewer than three of the AI gigafactories procured under the EuroHPC Joint Undertaking's 2026 call are declared operational by EuroHPC on or before 2030-06-30, against a Commission plan for up to seven facilities running from mid-2028.
clearly above consensus · 3 rungs · resolves December 31, 2030the card ↗
50%vs 25% implied · engine 55%
Epoch AI's GPU Clusters dataset lists at least one single-site AI cluster with estimated 16-bit performance of 1e22 FLOP/s or more, with status operational and an operational date on or before 2028-12-31.
clearly above consensus · 3 rungs · resolves March 31, 2029the card ↗
25%vs 10% implied · engine 7%
NVIDIA reports at least one fiscal quarter, in an earnings release dated on or before 2027-12-31, in which Data Center segment revenue is lower than the immediately preceding fiscal quarter.
clearly above consensus · 1 rungs · resolves December 31, 2027the card ↗
55%vs 30% implied · engine 39%
By 2028-12-31 the European Commission publishes a decision imposing a fine of at least EUR 10 million on a US-headquartered provider of a general-purpose AI model under Article 101 of the EU AI Act.
clearly above consensus · 2 rungs · resolves December 31, 2028the card ↗
30%vs 55% implied · engine 15%
By 2031-12-31 an SEC-registered company discloses in a filing or earnings release that at least 10,000 humanoid or general-purpose mobile-manipulator robots are deployed under paid contracts at customers other than the robot maker.
clearly below consensus · 4 rungs · resolves December 31, 2031the card ↗
70%vs 45% implied · engine 59%
OpenAI does not publicly state a weekly active user count of 1.5 billion or more for ChatGPT or its combined products in any first-party disclosure dated on or before 2027-12-31.
clearly above consensus · resolves December 31, 2027the card ↗
70%vs 45% implied · engine 88%
By 2029-12-31 at least one US-listed GPU cloud provider (CoreWeave, Nebius, or another SEC registrant whose primary business is renting AI accelerators) discloses a payment default, covenant breach, distressed debt exchange, or bankruptcy filing.
clearly above consensus · 2 rungs · resolves December 31, 2029the card ↗
60%vs 35% implied · engine 61%
On 2027-12-31 the gap between the top-scoring model and the top-scoring open-weights model on the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index is at least 4 points on the index version then live.
clearly above consensus · resolves December 31, 2027the card ↗
60%vs 79% · engine 51%
OpenAI publicly states an annualized revenue run rate of at least $100 billion, or reports a quarter with revenue of at least $25 billion, in a first-party disclosure dated on or before 2028-12-31.
clearly below consensus · 2 rungs · resolves December 31, 2028the card ↗
75%vs 55% implied · engine 19%
Through 2028-12-31 no S&P 500 company files a 10-K, 10-Q, or 8-K with the SEC that attributes a workforce reduction of 10% or more of its total headcount principally to AI or AI-enabled automation.
clearly above consensus · 3 rungs · resolves December 31, 2028the card ↗
55%vs 35% implied · engine 46%
The share of US businesses reporting current AI use in the Census Bureau's Business Trends and Outlook Survey stays below 30% in every biweekly collection period through the end of 2027.
clearly above consensus · resolves December 31, 2027the card ↗
50%vs 33% implied · engine 26%
The First Trust NASDAQ Clean Edge Smart Grid Infrastructure Index Fund (GRID) delivers a cumulative NAV total return for calendar years 2026 and 2027 at least 15 percentage points above the S&P 500 Index total return over the same period.
leans above consensus · resolves December 31, 2027the card ↗
40%vs 25% implied · engine 32%
A US federal statute signed into law on or before 2027-12-31 expressly preempts, or conditions federal funds on the non-enforcement of, state laws that specifically regulate the development or deployment of AI models.
leans above consensus · resolves December 31, 2027the card ↗
50%vs 35% implied · engine 47%
No UALink Consortium member announces general availability or volume production of a switch ASIC implementing the native UALink 200G specification (not an Ethernet-tunnelled or bridged variant) on or before 2027-12-31.
leans above consensus · resolves December 31, 2027the card ↗
40%vs 30% implied · engine 63%
Combined purchases of property and equipment by Alphabet, Amazon, and Meta for the first nine months of 2027 grow less than 30% over the first nine months of 2026, as reported in their Q3 2027 Forms 10-Q.
leans above consensus · resolves December 31, 2027the card ↗
55%vs 45% implied · engine 83%
By 2028-12-31 at least three of NVIDIA, Broadcom, Cisco, Marvell, and Arista have announced general availability or volume production of a switch with co-packaged optics (CPO) on their own newsrooms, and at least one names a hyperscaler production deployment.
leans above consensus · 4 rungs · resolves December 31, 2028the card ↗
50%vs 50% implied · engine 43%
On each of 2027-12-31, 2028-12-31, and 2029-12-31 the highest-scoring open-weights model on the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index is developed by a lab headquartered in mainland China.
in line with consensus · 4 rungs · resolves December 31, 2029the card ↗
Separate from the Ledger. N is always visible. No aggregate Brier until thirty tier-1 items or tier-2 rungs have resolved.
The Radar keeps its own scoreboard. It publishes no aggregate Brier score until 30 tier-1 or tier-2 items have resolved, and it never averages with the Ledger.
The offline engine prices every thesis from public series, reference classes, and a persona council. Where it disagrees with me, both numbers stay on the card.
Run radar-2026-09-07T23-49-04Z-de8abf · engine 0.1.0 · 30 of 30 theses priced
Engine is cooler than me on 20 theses and hotter on 8.
| Source | Kind | As of | Records | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| artificial-analysis | artificial-analysis-api | 2026-09-07 | 0 | unavailable |
| bls | bls-v1 | 2026-09-07 | 75 | ok |
| eia | eia-v2 | 2026-09-07 | 30 | partial |
| epoch | epoch-csv | 2026-09-07 | 10 | partial |
| fred | fred-csv | 2026-09-07 | 4498 | ok |
| hf-hub | huggingface-hub | 2026-09-07 | 2 | ok |
| manual | manual-file | 2026-09-07 | 0 | unavailable |
| metaculus | metaculus-api | 2026-09-07 | 0 | unavailable |
| sec-xbrl | sec-xbrl-companyconcept | 2026-09-07 | 313 | ok |
Short, dated questions with a four-month record, scored with partial credit and without.
57 resolved of 104 issued, Brier 0.200, 40 live questions. Read the Ledger.