38% · live — Meta contributes MetaRoCE specification through OCP at the October 2026 Global S

Probability history

Called at 44% on August 29, 2026. Not yet repriced. 12 days to deadline.

How the number was built

Final method: stacked-fixed-weights (resolved n=74 < 80). Each rung is an independent estimate; the final is a stacked combination.

Stated (issue date)44%

Reference class (n=60)55%

Recalibrated50%

Feature model31%

Council35%

Final38%

Drivers

Reference class conjunctive:single-leg runs 0.55 (n=60) vs stated 0.44.
Hierarchical calibration moves stated 0.44 to 0.50 (lens networking, kappa_stated=80.0, kappa_lens=200.0).
Feature model at 0.31: conjuncts=1, named disclosure=False, horizon=63d.
Council of 5 at 0.35.

Cautions

all 5 votes came from one vendor (openai); extremization disabled, persona diversity only

Council

5 personas on one model (openai/gpt-5.6-sol); other vendors were unavailable this run, so read this as one model's persona-averaged view, aggregated by log odds mean without extremization.

40%

grid and power economist · openai/gpt-5.6-sol

Meta regularly uses OCP summits for networking contributions, and the unusually specific “MetaRoCE” name suggests a concrete initiative rather than a generic prediction. However, resolution requires an explicit OCP contribution tied to the October 2026 summit; open-source code, a presentation without contribution language, or later publication fails. The supplied digest contains no confirming summit material, and networking predictions in the ledger have resolved below the overall rate. With the event occurring around the current date, little time remains for qualifying documentation to appear.

https://www.opencompute.org/https://engineering.fb.com/

36%

semiconductor supply chain analyst · openai/gpt-5.6-sol

Meta is a founding OCP participant and RoCE standardization fits its scale-networking interests, so the proposal is plausible. However, the criterion is narrow: a specifically identifiable MetaRoCE specification must be contributed through OCP at the October summit; a Meta-only publication or GitHub release fails. Networking forecasts in the supplied ledger have resolved below the overall rate, and summit materials normally surface during or immediately after the event. With October 19 already reached and no qualifying evidence in the supplied digest, I discount the earlier 0.44 forecast, while allowing for delayed posting before October 31.

https://www.opencompute.org/https://engineering.fb.com/

37%

capital markets credit analyst · openai/gpt-5.6-sol

Meta is a founding OCP participant, and an open RoCE specification fits its history of contributing infrastructure designs. However, “MetaRoCE” is highly specific, and resolution requires an identifiable OCP contribution tied to the October summit; a technical repository or broader networking presentation does not qualify. With the summit period effectively reached and no qualifying OCP material or Meta engineering post supplied in the public digest, the strict ambiguity rule weighs against a hit. The networking reference-class rate of 0.346 is the most relevant prior.

https://www.opencompute.org/https://engineering.fb.com/

28%

superforecaster statistician · openai/gpt-5.6-sol

I use the networking-lens base rate of 0.346 (n=12). Meta has a history of OCP networking work, but resolution requires the specifically named MetaRoCE specification to be contributed through OCP at this summit; a general RoCE presentation or GitHub release fails. The hard October 31 documentation deadline and ambiguity-against policy warrant a disclosure-timing penalty. The digest provides no event-specific corroboration. The forecaster’s 0.4–0.5 calibration bin is 2-for-2 but has only two cases, so it does not justify raising the estimate toward 0.44.

https://www.opencompute.org/https://engineering.fb.com/

34%

geopolitics regulation analyst · openai/gpt-5.6-sol

The strongest reference class is networking at 0.346. Meta regularly uses OCP summits for open hardware and networking contributions, so the venue and calendar are plausible. However, resolution requires the specifically named MetaRoCE specification to be contributed through OCP, not merely presented, discussed, or published independently. With the October summit likely completed or underway and no qualifying summit material or Meta engineering post supplied, the narrow documentation requirement and ambiguity rule offset the calendar fit. Materials can still appear by October 31, but late publication is less likely than an announcement during the summit.

Evidence the engine used

direct · undated

Home - Open Compute Project

Cited by grid-and-power-economist: Meta regularly uses OCP summits for networking contributions, and the unusually specific “MetaRoCE” name suggests a concrete initiative rather than a generic prediction. However, resolution requires an explicit OCP contribution tied to the October 2026 summit; open

direct · undated

Engineering at Meta - Engineering at Meta Blog