44%

grid and power economist · openai/gpt-5.6-sol

Statewide data-center moratoria are uncommon; most constraints emerge through local zoning, utility tariffs, or project-specific interconnection decisions, none of which necessarily qualify. Only 55 days remain, most legislatures are out of regular session, and the rule requires a formal executive order, statute, or PUC order from an additional state. A governor or commission could still act quickly amid reliability or ratepayer concerns, but ordinary tariff investigations or proposed bills would fail the literal standard. The forecaster’s 0.50–0.59 band has also substantially underperformed its stated confidence.

semiconductor supply chain analyst · openai/gpt-5.6-sol

The qualifying bar is unusually strict: a second state must issue a statewide executive order, statute, or PUC order, while local moratoria and ambiguous permitting reviews fail. Grid-load concerns create political pressure, but most state legislatures are out of regular session and formal PUC proceedings rarely produce broad pauses within 55 days. The original 0.57 also sits in a historically overconfident calibration band; roughly half its forecast window has elapsed without a cited qualifying action. Executive action remains the most plausible path, keeping the probability material but below even odds.

capital markets credit analyst · openai/gpt-5.6-sol

Power-system strain and public concern over data-center costs create a plausible catalyst, but the qualifying bar is unusually strict: a second state must issue an executive order, statute, or PUC order—not merely introduce legislation, open an inquiry, revise a tariff, or adopt a local pause. With only 55 days remaining, most state legislatures out of regular session, and ambiguity resolving against the forecast, the procedural window is narrow. Formal statewide moratoria are also much rarer than county restrictions. This is below the forecaster’s 0.57 and consistent with the weak realized performance of its 0.50–0.59 confidence band.

superforecaster statistician · openai/gpt-5.6-sol

Base rate: 0.534 from the overall ledger; I discount the 0.700 power rate because n=4. The closest calibration bin (0.5–0.6) realized only 0.367 versus 0.586 stated, indicating overconfidence. A 55-day window and the requirement for a second state plus a qualifying statewide executive order, statute, or PUC order materially reduce the chance; county actions and proposals fail. Long interconnection timelines create genuine political pressure, but the digest provides no state-specific pending instrument. With many legislatures outside regular session, executive or PUC action is the likeliest route. Ambiguity resolving against the forecaster lowers the estimate further.

geopolitics regulation analyst · openai/gpt-5.6-sol

Only 55 days remain, and most state legislatures are adjourned or focused on elections, leaving executive and PUC action as the realistic paths. Statewide data-center moratoria are uncommon; recent pressure more often produces studies, tariff proceedings, interconnection rules, or local pauses, none of which necessarily satisfy the strict resolution rule. Nationwide exposure and the possibility of action clustering after a grid or political flashpoint keep the probability material. Conditioning the original 0.57 forecast on no qualifying second-state action by September 6, then discounting for document-type ambiguity and the forecaster’s weak calibration in the 0.50–0.59 band, supports a substantially lower estimate.