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brianletort.aiD. Brian Letort, Ph.D.

AI Market · Forecast desk · partial · hardware

62% · partial

TSMC's July 16 Q2 earnings raise or reiterate the top end of full-year 2026 capex guidance and report HPC/AI platform revenue up more than 50% year over year, confirming the packaging-constrained AI capex ramp.

Back to the bookIssue 2026-W28

Outcome

partialcalled at 62%brier contribution 0.014conjunctive

The capex leg hit decisively — TSMC raised the entire FY26 range to $60-64B (from $52-56B), well beyond reiterating the top end. The revenue leg fell just short: HPC at 66% of a $40.2B quarter implies ~47% YoY platform growth versus the >50% bar. The thesis behind the prediction (packaging-constrained ramp) was confirmed on the record by the CEO's packaging warning (quoted in the hardware lens).