46%

grid and power economist · openai/gpt-5.6-sol

Large-load tariffs increasingly seek dispatchability, and Camellia provides a precedent, but the resolution requires another specifically identified multi-gigawatt campus, a quantified commitment of at least 250 MW, and publication through utility filing or campus IR within 147 days. Generic demand-response eligibility, proposed tariff authority, or an unquantified promise would fail under the ambiguity rule. The supplied digest identifies no second candidate, docket, or scheduled filing. Queue delays do not directly preclude a paper commitment, but they reduce utilities’ need to finalize campus-specific operating terms quickly. Disclosure and >90-day reference classes support a middling prior, with a haircut for the exact threshold and document requirements.

semiconductor supply chain analyst · openai/gpt-5.6-sol

Grid constraints increasingly push utilities to require large AI loads to offer interruptibility, and several multi-gigawatt projects could reach regulatory approval within 147 days. However, the resolution standard is demanding: a second campus must be identified as multi-gigawatt, explicitly commit at least 250 MW—not merely discuss demand response—and do so in a utility filing or campus IR. Special contracts often redact operational terms, while announcements use vague language such as “flexible load.” The short window and ambiguity-against policy therefore keep the probability below even odds.

capital markets credit analyst · openai/gpt-5.6-sol

Large-load tariffs and grid-reliability concerns make substantial curtailment provisions increasingly plausible. However, resolution requires a second distinct campus to be publicly established as multi-gigawatt, commit at least 250 MW—not merely discuss flexible load—and have that commitment appear in a utility filing or campus IR within 147 days. Such agreements are often confidential, redacted, expressed without a firm MW amount, or disclosed only at the utility-program level. The strict source, threshold, and ambiguity rules put this below the forecaster’s 0.49 despite favorable power-sector momentum.

superforecaster statistician · openai/gpt-5.6-sol

I use the >90-day base rate of 0.40; the power-lens rate of 0.70 has only four observations and receives little weight. I adjust downward because success requires a second qualifying multi-gigawatt campus, a large explicit ≥250 MW commitment, and disclosure in a utility filing or campus IR within 147 days. Disclosure timing and ambiguity materially increase failure risk, while the digest provides no specific evidence of an imminent qualifying filing. The forecaster’s broader calibration shows overconfidence near and above 0.50, reinforcing a discount from 0.49.

geopolitics regulation analyst · openai/gpt-5.6-sol

Grid-stress concerns and emerging large-load tariffs make another sizable curtailment obligation plausible, especially in utility commission proceedings this fall. However, resolution requires a second identifiable multi-gigawatt campus, an explicit commitment of at least 250 MW, and disclosure through a utility filing or campus IR by a near-term deadline. Special contracts often redact customer identity or describe interruptibility without a firm MW amount, which would fail under the ambiguity rule. The 147-day window includes several filing cycles but is short for negotiating and approving a campus-specific agreement. Six weeks elapsed since the prior forecast also modestly reduces the remaining probability.