Skip to content
brianletort.aiD. Brian Letort, Ph.D.

AI Market · Forecast desk · miss · software

58% · miss

Gemini 3.5 Pro reaches public GA by June 30, 2026 but debuts below Claude Fable 5 on the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index in its first independent pass.

Back to the bookIssue 2026-W24Evidence ↗

Outcome

misscalled at 58%resolved July 18, 2026brier contribution 0.336timing-slip

GA premise failed: Gemini 3.5 Pro had not reached public GA by June 30 (its third slip), so its debut position on the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index was never tested.

Evidence: https://www.searchenginejournal.com/gemini-3-5-pro-delayed-over-coding-bloomberg-reports/582660/