Radar · arena · as of September 7, 2026
Scale-up and scale-out fabrics, optics, and the standards fights that decide which vendors get paid. Resolution runs through issuer filings and public consortium releases.
Sharpest call. 75% that By 2031-12-31 at least two of Amazon, Microsoft, Meta, and Oracle publicly disclose a production AI training or inference deployment whose scale-up domain of 64 or more accelerators is connected by an open-standard fabric (UALink or an Ethernet scale-up specification published by UEC or the Open Compute Project) rather than NVLink or a proprietary in-house interconnect. The card.
by end-2027 · Brier-scored
50%vs 35% implied · engine 47%
No UALink Consortium member announces general availability or volume production of a switch ASIC implementing the native UALink 200G specification (not an Ethernet-tunnelled or bridged variant) on or before 2027-12-31.
leans above consensus · resolves December 31, 2027the card ↗
by end-2029 · milestone ladder
55%vs 45% implied · engine 83%
By 2028-12-31 at least three of NVIDIA, Broadcom, Cisco, Marvell, and Arista have announced general availability or volume production of a switch with co-packaged optics (CPO) on their own newsrooms, and at least one names a hyperscaler production deployment.
leans above consensus · 4 rungs · resolves December 31, 2028the card ↗
2030–2035 · falsifier tracked
75%vs 40% implied · engine 52%
By 2031-12-31 at least two of Amazon, Microsoft, Meta, and Oracle publicly disclose a production AI training or inference deployment whose scale-up domain of 64 or more accelerators is connected by an open-standard fabric (UALink or an Ethernet scale-up specification published by UEC or the Open Compute Project) rather than NVLink or a proprietary in-house interconnect.
far above consensus · 3 rungs · resolves December 31, 2031the card ↗
Public series with the on-track and off-track thresholds registered with each thesis. Status is computed, not narrated.
Hyperscalers disclosing open scale-up fabric in productionno data
— count
on track >= 1 · off == 0manual ↗
connector returned no usable reading · checked 2026-09-07
Native UALink switch GA (from RT-08)no data
— boolean
on track == 1 · off == 0manual ↗
connector returned no usable reading · checked 2026-09-07
Native UALink switch ASICs announced as samplingno data
— count
on track <= 1 · off >= 2manual ↗
connector returned no usable reading · checked 2026-09-07
Second non-Broadcom vendor cites 1.6T or CPO hyperscaler design winno data
— boolean
on track == 0 · off == 1manual ↗
connector returned no usable reading · checked 2026-09-07
Vendors with CPO switch in GA or volume productionno data
— count
on track >= 2 · off <= 1manual ↗
connector returned no usable reading · checked 2026-09-07
Coherent quarterly revenue (optics demand proxy)between
1.81 USD billions
on track >= 2 · off < 1.6sec-xbrl ↗
series as of 2026-03-31