Radar · arena · as of September 7, 2026
Export controls, domestic accelerator share in China, EU enforcement, US preemption, sovereign compute budgets, and tariff regimes, resolved against official publications.
Sharpest call. 85% that China (including Hong Kong) accounts for less than 10% of NVIDIA's total revenue in each of its fiscal 2027, 2028, and 2029 Forms 10-K, meaning US export controls permanently remove China as a material NVIDIA market. The card.
by end-2027 · Brier-scored
40%vs 25% implied · engine 32%
A US federal statute signed into law on or before 2027-12-31 expressly preempts, or conditions federal funds on the non-enforcement of, state laws that specifically regulate the development or deployment of AI models.
leans above consensus · resolves December 31, 2027the card ↗
by end-2029 · milestone ladder
85%vs 60% implied · engine 89%
China (including Hong Kong) accounts for less than 10% of NVIDIA's total revenue in each of its fiscal 2027, 2028, and 2029 Forms 10-K, meaning US export controls permanently remove China as a material NVIDIA market.
clearly above consensus · 2 rungs · resolves March 31, 2029the card ↗
55%vs 30% implied · engine 39%
By 2028-12-31 the European Commission publishes a decision imposing a fine of at least EUR 10 million on a US-headquartered provider of a general-purpose AI model under Article 101 of the EU AI Act.
clearly above consensus · 2 rungs · resolves December 31, 2028the card ↗
2030–2035 · falsifier tracked
50%vs 25% implied · engine 51%
Fewer than three of the AI gigafactories procured under the EuroHPC Joint Undertaking's 2026 call are declared operational by EuroHPC on or before 2030-06-30, against a Commission plan for up to seven facilities running from mid-2028.
clearly above consensus · 3 rungs · resolves December 31, 2030the card ↗
Public series with the on-track and off-track thresholds registered with each thesis. Status is computed, not narrated.
NVIDIA China (incl. Hong Kong) share of quarterly revenueno data
— percent
on track < 8 · off >= 11manual ↗
connector returned no usable reading · checked 2026-09-07
NVIDIA total quarterly revenueon track
96.2B usd
on track >= 90B · off < 70Bsec-xbrl ↗
series as of 2026-07-26
AI gigafactory framework contracts signed (cumulative)no data
— count
on track <= 3 · off >= 5manual ↗
connector returned no usable reading · checked 2026-09-07
AI gigafactories declared operational (cumulative)no data
— count
on track <= 1 · off >= 2manual ↗
connector returned no usable reading · checked 2026-09-07
Formal Article 101 proceedings opened against GPAI providers (cumulative)no data
— count
on track >= 1 · off == 0manual ↗
connector returned no usable reading · checked 2026-09-07
Signatories to the GPAI Code of Practiceno data
— count
on track <= 30 · off > 40manual ↗
connector returned no usable reading · checked 2026-09-07
Manifold community probability, federal AI preemption by 2027-01-03no data
— probability
on track >= 0.25 · off < 0.08manual ↗
connector returned no usable reading · checked 2026-09-07
States enacting AI laws in the calendar year (count)no data
— states
on track >= 30 · off < 20manual ↗
connector returned no usable reading · checked 2026-09-07