OpenAI stated annualized revenue run rateno data
— usd-billions
on track >= 60 · off < 45manual ↗
connector returned no usable reading · checked 2026-10-19
Radar · Consumer and commercial use · T2 · 2029 · CALL
OpenAI states $100 billion run rate by 2028
OpenAI publicly states an annualized revenue run rate of at least $100 billion, or reports a quarter with revenue of at least $25 billion, in a first-party disclosure dated on or before 2028-12-31.
ClaimOpenAI publicly states an annualized revenue run rate of at least $100 billion, or reports a quarter with revenue of at least $25 billion, in a first-party disclosure dated on or before 2028-12-31.
Consensus79%Manifold, OpenAI reaches $100B revenue in 2028? · 2026-09-07
Distance-0.92log-odds · clearly below consensus
My confidence60%80% CI 45–74%
Engine46%-14 pts vs me · council-only:log-odds-mean
Falsifies ifOpenAI's latest stated run rate at 2027-12-31 is below $60 billion, which would require an implausible 2028 to reach $100 billion.
HorizonDecember 31, 2028804 days · by end-2029 · milestone ladder
Why it matters
OpenAI's revenue is the first real test of whether consumer and enterprise AI can pay for frontier-scale compute rather than borrow against it. A $100 billion run rate by 2028 would put one lab at roughly Meta's 2021 revenue after six years of product, and would validate the compute commitments already signed. Missing it by a wide margin would reprice every neocloud contract that leans on OpenAI as tenant.
Probability over time
Registered at 60% on September 8, 2026. Engine repriced 14 times; now 46%.
Milestone ladder
Dated rungs. Each is scored on its own; the thesis does not get credit for the ladder until the rungs land.
filled bar · my probabilityhollow dot · engineamber date · due, awaiting adjudication
m1 · 2027-06-30 · 60% · OpenAI states an annualized revenue run rate of at least $60 billion.
m2 · 2027-12-31 · 50% · OpenAI states an annualized revenue run rate of at least $75 billion.
Leading indicators
Registered thresholds. Status is computed from the latest public reading.
OpenAI stated paid subscribersno data
— millions
on track >= 75 · off < 55manual ↗
connector returned no usable reading · checked 2026-10-19
What would move me
Would raise my number
- A first-party run rate at or above $55 billion by 2027-03-31.
- Advertising run rate above $5 billion, adding a second engine to subscriptions and API.
- An S-1 that shows GAAP quarterly revenue within 15% of the annualized run-rate claim.
Would cut it
- Two consecutive quarters of GAAP revenue growth below 10% sequentially.
- Enterprise share of revenue falling as Anthropic, Google, or Microsoft win coding and agent workloads.
- Repeated per-token price cuts on flagship models without offsetting volume growth.
Council · 46%
6 personas on one model (openai/gpt-5.6-sol); other vendors were unavailable this run, so read this as one model's persona-averaged view.
44%
grid-and-power-planner · openai/gpt-5.6-sol
My reference class is hypergrowth software/platform businesses after reaching tens of billions in annualized revenue: growth typically decelerates and ambitious revenue schedules often slip. The supplied August 2026 framing requires roughly 50% compounded growth and puts $100 billion one year ahead of plan. I estimate a 0.48 chance of a qualifying $75 billion statement by end-2027; conditional probabilities of a qualifying $100 billion statement by end-2028 are about 0.72 after that rung and 0.18 without it, yielding 0.44. The strict first-party/SEC rule excludes media-sourced figures. No indicator data confirms the starting run rate.
46%
semiconductor-supply-chain-analyst · openai/gpt-5.6-sol
Using late-stage hypergrowth software vendors as the reference class, sustaining roughly 50% annual growth for two years is possible but not the base case as scale and compute constraints rise. The supplied milestones imply only an even chance of $75 billion by end-2027; conditional on that, another 33% plus a qualifying disclosure is plausible, while lower-base catch-up paths contribute modestly. Resolution is conjunctive: OpenAI must both reach the threshold and print it through an official channel. Press-sourced figures do not count. That disclosure hurdle and the ambiguity rule warrant a substantial discount to the 0.79 near-match consensus.
42%
enterprise-cio · openai/gpt-5.6-sol
Reference class: software platforms already generating tens of billions annually. Sustaining roughly 1.5x annual growth for two years at that scale is uncommon because compute capacity, pricing pressure, enterprise integration, and customer adoption become constraints. I estimate a 0.52 chance OpenAI reaches the threshold operationally by year-end 2028 and about a 0.81 conditional chance that it makes a qualifying first-party disclosure; private-company opacity and the explicit post-2027-06-30 statement requirement matter. The milestone probabilities are consistent with substantial but not dominant odds. This is below both the stated 0.60 and the 0.79 consensus.
49%
credit-analyst · openai/gpt-5.6-sol
Reference class: late-stage consumer/enterprise software platforms already at tens of billions in revenue. Sustaining roughly 1.5x annual growth for about two years is possible but uncommon at this scale, given compute capacity, pricing pressure and enterprise adoption constraints. The run-rate formulation is easier than earning $100 billion in a fiscal year, but resolution additionally requires a qualifying first-party or executive disclosure; press leaks and investor materials do not count. With both indicators missing and the stated 2027 milestones unverified, I discount the operational crossing for disclosure risk and ambiguity. This is below the 0.79 consensus and the forecaster’s 0.6.
54%
geopolitics-policy-analyst · openai/gpt-5.6-sol
Reference class: late-stage hypergrowth software/platform companies attempting to more than double revenue within roughly two years. OpenAI is an exceptional grower, but sustaining about 50% annual growth from the supplied August 2026 baseline is difficult as the revenue base expands, competition intensifies, and compute availability constrains delivery. Resolution is also conjunctive: the threshold must be reached and disclosed through a qualifying first-party channel; leaked financing materials do not count, and the SEC route likely requires a listing. The forced miss if no post-June-2027 revenue statement adds disclosure risk. With no current indicator readings, I discount the 0.79 near-match consensus and land slightly below 0.6.
44%
superforecaster-statistician · openai/gpt-5.6-sol
I use a 0.30 reference-class base rate for mega-scale private technology firms to grow revenue at least 2.5x within roughly 28 months. The supplied August 2026 framing implies about a $40 billion run rate, so exceptional AI demand raises my economic-crossing estimate to roughly 0.58. I then apply about a 0.75 chance that a qualifying first-party statement or filing actually prints the required figure by the deadline, giving about 0.44. The strict named-source rule matters: press leaks and investor-deck reporting fail, while the SEC-quarter route likely requires a listing and adds little. Both leading indicators are missing, providing no fresh verification for the higher forecasts.