Capital flow drill-down
Money in, revenue out: the full breakdown.
Issue 27 · Week 43 of 2026.
The four-category capital scorecard expanded with named transactions, burn-to-revenue context, and per-category trends across recent issues. Each row corresponds to a row in the summary table on the issue page.
Capital flow scorecard
Capital in, revenue out, burn ratio, and movement.
| Category | Capital in | Revenue out | Burn to revenue | Movement |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frontier LabsOpenAI, Anthropic, Google DeepMind, DeepSeek | No closed lab equity. OpenAI is reported finalising up to $30B at a $1.25T pre-money valuation led by UAE investors and Coatue, trimmed from $1.4T (CNBC, Bloomberg; grade 3; carried in text, not charted). SpaceX's ~$40B off-balance-sheet GPU SPV for its SI segment is being repriced: Bloomberg reports the $25-30B subordinated tranche, previously mid-8%, under renegotiation; Semafor (outside the graded packet) has ~8.3% subordinated against ~7.75% chip-backed. Anthropic's public S-1 slipped past October 23 with the roadshow still the week of November 9. The lab layer's other capital object is the SpaceX SI segment (the former xAI, reported as a SpaceX segment since the merger)Prior No closed lab equity. Pricing emerged on both layers of the $61.5B Anthropic chip-lease package: the $42B of Broadcom-guaranteed senior loans syndicate at SOFR+150 / +187.5 bp to 2033 (IFR; still in syndication, not closed), and the FT reports Blackstone offered a 10% coupon on ~$9B of the $18B junior tranche (grade 3; carried in text, not charted); Anthropic also signed a 20-year lease for 95 MW at EverWind's C$8B Point Tupper campus, lease value undisclosed · Flat | Anthropic's updated draft S-1 (WSJ, Reuters; a reviewed document, not a filing; grade 4) shows H1 2026 revenue of $16.3B, which reconciles exactly to the $4.7B and $11.6B quarters reported second-hand in prior weeks, so the Q3 $16.8B and the ~$67B annualised chart value stand unchanged. The first filed frontier-lab segment line arrived from a different lab: SpaceX's SI segment at $7.56B for Q3 (+195% QoQ, $431M operating income, $4.95B adjusted EBITDA), about $30B annualised; it is carried in text because the series is Anthropic's run-ratePrior Anthropic told pre-IPO investors Q3 revenue was $16.8B, up from $11.6B in Q2 and $4.7B in Q1, with adjusted profit (Reuters, Bloomberg, BBC via attendees; grade 3; Reuters' figures are used, the FT reports $4.8B / $11.5B for Q1 / Q2). The chart value is a house derivation: the quarter annualised (~$67B run-rate), so the series stays in annual run-rate units · Flat | n/a | A lab's draft S-1 shows $16.3B of H1 revenue against an $80.7B loss (~$72B non-cash) and $518-750B of compute commitments; a second lab's parent filed a segment with operating income and is repricing a $40B chip SPV; no closed lab equity |
| Hyperscaler-HostedAzure-OpenAI, AWS-Anthropic, Google Cloud-Gemini, Oracle-OCI | No category financing. Meta's Class C non-voting stock (effective January 19, 2027, distributed 1-for-1) is a capital-raising currency, not capital raised, and is carried in text; Meta's Q3 capex was $34.9B with 2026 narrowed to $135-145B and free cash flow of -$2.12B. Amazon is funding AEP / X-energy's 960 MW Xe-100 SMR feasibility work in Indiana with milestone-based development capital and intended offtake, no FID or amount disclosed. Tesla (an on-prem builder, below) cut capex and left $30B of bank facilities undrawnPrior No category financing. TrendForce raised top-nine CSP (cloud service provider) capex to $957B for 2026 (+106%) and above $1.5T for 2027 (+60%), and Morgan Stanley's CEO put hyperscaler capex at about $1T a year; both are forecasts and statements, not closed capital, and are carried in text · Flat | No AI-segment revenue disclosure from a hyperscaler. Anthropic's Claude Platform reached GA on Google Cloud as an Anthropic-operated deployment billed through Marketplace commitments, a distribution statement without a revenue line; Google Cloud's A5X Rubin instances reach GA in November with a first named customer. Meta's Q3 revenue of $64.6B (+26%) is not an AI linePrior No AI-segment revenue disclosure. Microsoft said Maia 200 is in production for Copilot and that Maia 300 will be the primary inference system for Microsoft products from 2027, which is a capacity statement without a revenue line · Flat | n/a | First negative free cash flow at a hyperscaler in over a decade (Meta, -$2.12B on $34.9B of quarterly capex) and a new non-voting share class as the response; the sell side raised targets; Amazon's SMR funding and Oregon cancellations show the buyer of most compute constrained by power, not capital |
| NeocloudsCoreWeave, Nscale, Crusoe, Lambda, IREN, Zankore, NEXTDC | ~$4.2B closed, all secured against a creditworthy payer: Nebius's $3.5B 364-day senior secured facility from Citi at SOFR+275 bp stepping to +350 (data-centre development, GPU procurement; 'sequencing' ahead of asset-backed deals against >$40B of investment-grade contracts) and Crusoe's $700M Neuberger facility secured on ordered gas generators for behind-the-meter power. Atlas Energy's $424M SOFR+250 bridge backed by customer cost-reimbursement agreements funds power equipment for data-centre projects and is carried in text. CoreWeave: CDS 1,145 bp, unsecured ~15-16%, no new issue; IFR counts five data-centre IPOs pulled or delayedPrior ~$5.8B closed: Volta's $5.012B six-year loan package (a $1.3B lease tranche underwritten by JPMorgan and Goldman; a $3.712B GPU term loan sold best-efforts at SOFR+650 / 95 OID, above 11%, unrated) and Modal's $750M Series D at $15.75B post-money. Cipher's $850M of 0% converts fund a landlord to the category and are carried in text; CoreWeave's unsecured traded to 15-16% and its CDS above 1,000 bp with no new issue · Down | No neocloud revenue line. CoreWeave's backlog stands at $104B against a Bernstein estimate of ~$85B of further financing needed and $29.7B of delayed-draw term loans already secured via SPVs; Nebius cites >$40B of investment-grade customer contracts (Microsoft, Meta) as the collateral base for future asset-backed deals; Crusoe cites >6 GW of gross capacity under contract. None is revenue; the pattern watch says the market is discounting all three for upstream delivery riskPrior No neocloud revenue line. Modal says run-rate crossed $1B in September (vendor-reported; a serverless platform, not a GPU lessor); Nscale's IPO filing carries $103B of contracted revenue with Microsoft above 40%, of which the Loughton anchor (23,000 GPUs) is now terminated; CoreWeave's backlog stands at $104.2B against ~$50-52B of debt and leases · Flat | n/a | Secured bank paper against investment-grade payers clears at SOFR+250-350 while holdco unsecured at the largest operator yields 15-16% and five data-centre IPOs are pulled; the split is by obligor, and backlog does not move the price |
| On-Prem / HybridEnterprise GPU clusters, sovereign and national programs, open-weight and on-device deployment | No closed deployment programme. Reuters reports ByteDance, Alibaba and Tencent ordering more than 3 million export-compliant RTX PRO 5500 cards (>$35B at ~$11,400 each) against a ~3 million global 2027 cap, with partners told to expect 5-10% fills (single-outlet exclusive, grade 3; orders, not capital; carried in text). Tesla cut 2026 capex to ~$20B from >$25B while targeting 400 MW of SI training compute by year-end, with $30B of bank facilities (a $20B three-year DDTL, a delayed-draw term loan that can be drawn over time, plus $10B of revolvers) in place and undrawn. NVIDIA's DSX POD (seven Vera Rubin NVL72 racks per truck-shippable container, 14-day on-site deployment, early-2027 deliveries) is product, not financePrior No closed deployment programme. The week's on-prem capital was product rather than finance: RTX Spark laptops on sale from $2,599 with 128 GB unified memory, Intel GPU D-Series sampling at up to 480 GB per card, Nemotron 3.5 Bolt cut to 24 GB, and three frontier-scale open checkpoints with day-zero serving support; HCLTech's Anthropic business unit is a services commitment with no disclosed amount · Flat | IndirectPrior Indirect · Flat | n/a | The largest reported on-prem order of the cycle (>3 million workstation GPUs for China, grade 3) meets a stated 5-10% fill; a US automaker with 400 MW of training compute cut capex and left $30B undrawn; the laptop tier gained its first Apache 2.0 coding MoE and a 4 GB Bolt |
Category
Frontier Labs.
OpenAI, Anthropic, Google DeepMind, DeepSeek
- Capital in
- No closed lab equity. OpenAI is reported finalising up to $30B at a $1.25T pre-money valuation led by UAE investors and Coatue, trimmed from $1.4T (CNBC, Bloomberg; grade 3; carried in text, not charted). SpaceX's ~$40B off-balance-sheet GPU SPV for its SI segment is being repriced: Bloomberg reports the $25-30B subordinated tranche, previously mid-8%, under renegotiation; Semafor (outside the graded packet) has ~8.3% subordinated against ~7.75% chip-backed. Anthropic's public S-1 slipped past October 23 with the roadshow still the week of November 9. The lab layer's other capital object is the SpaceX SI segment (the former xAI, reported as a SpaceX segment since the merger)vs No closed lab equity. Pricing emerged on both layers of the $61.5B Anthropic chip-lease package: the $42B of Broadcom-guaranteed senior loans syndicate at SOFR+150 / +187.5 bp to 2033 (IFR; still in syndication, not closed), and the FT reports Blackstone offered a 10% coupon on ~$9B of the $18B junior tranche (grade 3; carried in text, not charted); Anthropic also signed a 20-year lease for 95 MW at EverWind's C$8B Point Tupper campus, lease value undisclosed · Flat
- Revenue out
- Anthropic's updated draft S-1 (WSJ, Reuters; a reviewed document, not a filing; grade 4) shows H1 2026 revenue of $16.3B, which reconciles exactly to the $4.7B and $11.6B quarters reported second-hand in prior weeks, so the Q3 $16.8B and the ~$67B annualised chart value stand unchanged. The first filed frontier-lab segment line arrived from a different lab: SpaceX's SI segment at $7.56B for Q3 (+195% QoQ, $431M operating income, $4.95B adjusted EBITDA), about $30B annualised; it is carried in text because the series is Anthropic's run-ratevs Anthropic told pre-IPO investors Q3 revenue was $16.8B, up from $11.6B in Q2 and $4.7B in Q1, with adjusted profit (Reuters, Bloomberg, BBC via attendees; grade 3; Reuters' figures are used, the FT reports $4.8B / $11.5B for Q1 / Q2). The chart value is a house derivation: the quarter annualised (~$67B run-rate), so the series stays in annual run-rate units · Flat
- Burn / rev
- n/aLower means more capital out than in.
The read
The lab layer produced two documents this week and closed no capital. Anthropic's updated draft S-1, reviewed by the WSJ and Reuters, shows H1 2026 revenue of $16.3B against $1.1B a year earlier, a net loss of $80.7B of which ~$72B is a non-cash fair-value charge on convertible notes, nearly $9B of H1 compute spend, at least $518B of decade-long compute commitments and $750B signalled; the circulating frame that the loss is 'mostly paper' is correct and the operative numbers are the commitments against the revenue. The public filing did not appear on EDGAR by October 24 and the roadshow remains the week of November 9, with some investors reported weighing ~$1.5T against the $2T discussed. SpaceX's first full post-xAI quarter filed the SI segment at $7.56B of revenue and $431M of operating income with 1.7 GW of nameplate compute, $16.4B of SI capex in the quarter and $35-40B of total capex guided for Q4; its ~$40B GPU SPV is the big story's resolution point, and the house measurement on the same filing gives the collateral a book value of ~$29B per nameplate GW depreciating ~20% a year. OpenAI's reported up-to-$30B at $1.25T pre-money is a bridge round tied to UAE compute talks (grade 3, unannounced). Policy pressure on the lab layer continued: Texas became the tenth state to sue OpenAI, seeking court-approved third-party review before any new model reaches Texas users, and DHS published the FASCSA order (a Federal Acquisition Supply Chain Security Act exclusion, the procurement tool that removes a named supplier's products from federal civilian IT) covering DeepSeek-derived products (the synthesis's first second-order effect carries the order); this entry is the fact home for the Texas suit.
This week's transactions
| Date | Transaction | Amount | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-20 | Anthropic updated draft S-1 reviewed by WSJ and Reuters: H1 revenue $16.3B, net loss $80.7B (~$72B non-cash), compute commitments at least $518B; public filing not on EDGAR by October 24 | $16.3B H1 revenue (reported; not a filing) | WSJ; Reuters via StreetInsider |
| 2026-10-20 | SpaceX Q3 8-K: SI segment revenue $7.56B, operating income $431M, SI capex $16.4B, nameplate compute 1.7 GW; Q4 capex guided $35-40B | $7.56B segment revenue (filed) | SEC EDGAR (SpaceX 8-K exhibit) |
| 2026-10-23 | SpaceX ~$40B GPU SPV financing (Goldman-led; Apollo / Atlas SP, Pimco) hits pricing hurdles; $25-30B subordinated tranche previously mid-8% being renegotiated | ~$40B (not closed) | Bloomberg via Investing.com |
| 2026-10-22 | OpenAI reported nearing up to $30B at $1.25T pre-money led by UAE investors and Coatue, trimmed from $1.4T (grade 3; unannounced) | up to $30B (reported) | CNBC; Bloomberg; TechCrunch |
Trend across recent issues
- Capital in
- n/a, n/a, $0B, $0B, $10B, $0B, $0B, $0B
- Revenue out
- n/a, n/a, n/a, n/a, $4.6B, $4.6B, $67B, $67B
Category
Hyperscaler-Hosted.
Azure-OpenAI, AWS-Anthropic, Google Cloud-Gemini, Oracle-OCI
- Capital in
- No category financing. Meta's Class C non-voting stock (effective January 19, 2027, distributed 1-for-1) is a capital-raising currency, not capital raised, and is carried in text; Meta's Q3 capex was $34.9B with 2026 narrowed to $135-145B and free cash flow of -$2.12B. Amazon is funding AEP / X-energy's 960 MW Xe-100 SMR feasibility work in Indiana with milestone-based development capital and intended offtake, no FID or amount disclosed. Tesla (an on-prem builder, below) cut capex and left $30B of bank facilities undrawnvs No category financing. TrendForce raised top-nine CSP (cloud service provider) capex to $957B for 2026 (+106%) and above $1.5T for 2027 (+60%), and Morgan Stanley's CEO put hyperscaler capex at about $1T a year; both are forecasts and statements, not closed capital, and are carried in text · Flat
- Revenue out
- No AI-segment revenue disclosure from a hyperscaler. Anthropic's Claude Platform reached GA on Google Cloud as an Anthropic-operated deployment billed through Marketplace commitments, a distribution statement without a revenue line; Google Cloud's A5X Rubin instances reach GA in November with a first named customer. Meta's Q3 revenue of $64.6B (+26%) is not an AI linevs No AI-segment revenue disclosure. Microsoft said Maia 200 is in production for Copilot and that Maia 300 will be the primary inference system for Microsoft products from 2027, which is a capacity statement without a revenue line · Flat
- Burn / rev
- n/aLower means more capital out than in.
The read
Meta's quarter is the week's hyperscaler datapoint and the Class C share class, not the cash burn, is the new object: capex including finance-lease principal of $34.9B against operating cash flow of $32.8B gave free cash flow of -$2.12B, the first negative print in over a decade, with $82.45B of cash and securities on hand, 2026 capex narrowed to $135-145B, no 2027 figure beyond 'investing aggressively', and a 1-for-1 Class C stock dividend effective January 19, 2027 that creates a currency for capital raising, compensation and M&A without diluting control. Shares fell 7% and the sell side raised targets anyway (Benzinga, outside the graded packet), so the market priced the capex, not the burn. Why a currency and not a bond: TS Lombard expects ~$700B of AI bond issuance in 2027, $400B of it from hyperscalers (capital-06), into a market where IFR says this year's ~$330B is already struggling to distribute, so a non-voting equity currency created the same week is the cheapest option a hyperscaler can buy against that calendar. The buyer of most compute remains constrained by power rather than capital: Amazon put milestone-based development capital behind AEP / X-energy's 960 MW SMR plant in Indiana with intended long-term offtake (no FID, cost or schedule), the same week Hermiston's city manager said Amazon cancelled multiple planned campuses after Oregon's permit pause, and Business Insider reports (outside the graded packet; single-sourced) AWS staging ~$5B of GB300 racks in warehouses because sites lacked power. Anthropic's GA on Google Cloud and Google's A5X Rubin GA in November are distribution events: a lab's full platform billed through a hyperscaler's commitments, and a hyperscaler's first Rubin instances with EMEA data-residency regions. TrendForce's 2027 CSP capex above $1.5T (W42) stands as the forecast this quarter's prints are tested against.
This week's transactions
| Date | Transaction | Amount | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-21 | Meta Q3: capex $34.9B, free cash flow -$2.12B, 2026 capex $135-145B, non-voting Class C stock effective January 19, 2027 | $34.9B quarterly capex | Meta Investor Relations |
| 2026-10-19 | Amazon funds AEP / X-energy joint development agreement for a 960 MW Xe-100 SMR plant at the Breed site, Indiana; milestone-based development capital, intended long-term offtake, no FID | Undisclosed | X-energy Investor Relations; Utility Dive |
| 2026-10-22 | Anthropic Claude Platform GA on Google Cloud (Anthropic-managed) with Marketplace billing and commitment drawdown; Opus 5.5 Fast Mode at $8 / $40 | Not disclosed | Anthropic; Google Cloud Blog |
Trend across recent issues
- Capital in
- n/a, n/a, $18B, $0B, $0B, $0B, $0B, $0B
- Revenue out
- n/a, n/a, n/a, n/a, n/a, n/a, n/a, n/a
Category
Neoclouds.
CoreWeave, Nscale, Crusoe, Lambda, IREN, Zankore, NEXTDC
- Capital in
- ~$4.2B closed, all secured against a creditworthy payer: Nebius's $3.5B 364-day senior secured facility from Citi at SOFR+275 bp stepping to +350 (data-centre development, GPU procurement; 'sequencing' ahead of asset-backed deals against >$40B of investment-grade contracts) and Crusoe's $700M Neuberger facility secured on ordered gas generators for behind-the-meter power. Atlas Energy's $424M SOFR+250 bridge backed by customer cost-reimbursement agreements funds power equipment for data-centre projects and is carried in text. CoreWeave: CDS 1,145 bp, unsecured ~15-16%, no new issue; IFR counts five data-centre IPOs pulled or delayedvs ~$5.8B closed: Volta's $5.012B six-year loan package (a $1.3B lease tranche underwritten by JPMorgan and Goldman; a $3.712B GPU term loan sold best-efforts at SOFR+650 / 95 OID, above 11%, unrated) and Modal's $750M Series D at $15.75B post-money. Cipher's $850M of 0% converts fund a landlord to the category and are carried in text; CoreWeave's unsecured traded to 15-16% and its CDS above 1,000 bp with no new issue · Down
- Revenue out
- No neocloud revenue line. CoreWeave's backlog stands at $104B against a Bernstein estimate of ~$85B of further financing needed and $29.7B of delayed-draw term loans already secured via SPVs; Nebius cites >$40B of investment-grade customer contracts (Microsoft, Meta) as the collateral base for future asset-backed deals; Crusoe cites >6 GW of gross capacity under contract. None is revenue; the pattern watch says the market is discounting all three for upstream delivery riskvs No neocloud revenue line. Modal says run-rate crossed $1B in September (vendor-reported; a serverless platform, not a GPU lessor); Nscale's IPO filing carries $103B of contracted revenue with Microsoft above 40%, of which the Loughton anchor (23,000 GPUs) is now terminated; CoreWeave's backlog stands at $104.2B against ~$50-52B of debt and leases · Flat
- Burn / rev
- n/aLower means more capital out than in.
The read
The neocloud layer is where the big story's split is visible in one week's prints. CoreWeave's five-year CDS reached 1,145 bp (+39% in October), its senior unsecured traded below 80 cents to yield above 16%, its stock is down 36% month to date to a ~$31B market capitalisation against a ~$90B peak, and credit desks told CNBC the high-yield market is effectively paused until after the midterms pending clarity on data-centre permitting; IFR (October 24) reports five data-centre IPOs pulled or delayed (SB Energy, Firmus, Vitro, AirTrunk, DayOne), ~$330B of public AI bonds and loans underwritten this year of which ~$100B for data centres and neoclouds, and a $1.1B Virginia data-centre bond at an 8.875% coupon trading near 90. In the same 48 hours Nebius drew $3.5B of 364-day senior secured bank money from Citi at SOFR+275 stepping to +350, and Crusoe closed $700M secured on ordered gas generators (Crusoe closed a $3.9B Series F at $30.9B post-money in September and cites >6 GW under contract). This issue reads the ~800 bp between Nebius's facility and CoreWeave's unsecured as mostly the price of the payer, with the caveat that a 364-day floating bank facility and 2031/2032 fixed public bonds differ in tenor and market as well as credit (the like-for-like comparator is Nebius's own July term loan at SOFR+250, so this facility priced 25-100 bp wider than Nebius's prior secured print): Nebius's COO named Microsoft and Meta contracts as the collateral base (Reuters), Atlas's bridge is backed by customer cost-reimbursement agreements, and CoreWeave's $104B backlog, which Bernstein says needs ~$85B more financing, did not help the price. Nebius's shares still fell 7% on the day (-33% since September 30), which is the equity market pricing the sector, not the facility. Volta's GPU tranche has no reported secondary quote in the packet and Nscale has filed no amendment (both pending in the prediction ledger) and is not among IFR's five pulled listings. The capital-in figure is the Nebius and Crusoe facilities; Atlas's $424M is power equipment for data-centre projects and is counted in text.
This week's transactions
| Date | Transaction | Amount | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-22 | Nebius $3.5B 364-day senior secured facility from Citi at Term SOFR+2.75% stepping to a 3.50% maximum; data-centre development and GPU procurement | $3.5B | Nebius newsroom; Reuters via StreetInsider |
| 2026-10-22 | Crusoe $700M Neuberger Specialty Finance facility secured by ordered gas power-generation equipment for behind-the-meter AI factories | $700M | Crusoe newsroom |
| 2026-10-22 | Atlas Energy Solutions $424M senior secured delayed-draw bridge (Goldman Sachs, Barclays) at SOFR+250 bp, backed by two customer cost-reimbursement agreements; $171M drawn at close (power equipment; carried in text) | $424M | Atlas Energy Solutions IR |
| 2026-10-21 | CoreWeave five-year CDS 1,145 bp; unsecured ~15%; senior unsecured below 80 cents (IFR); five data-centre IPOs pulled or delayed | Not disclosed | CNBC; IFR |
Trend across recent issues
- Capital in
- n/a, n/a, $3B, $4.2B, $1.4B, $0.2B, $5.8B, $4.2B
- Revenue out
- n/a, n/a, n/a, n/a, n/a, n/a, n/a, n/a
Category
On-Prem / Hybrid.
Enterprise GPU clusters, sovereign and national programs, open-weight and on-device deployment
- Capital in
- No closed deployment programme. Reuters reports ByteDance, Alibaba and Tencent ordering more than 3 million export-compliant RTX PRO 5500 cards (>$35B at ~$11,400 each) against a ~3 million global 2027 cap, with partners told to expect 5-10% fills (single-outlet exclusive, grade 3; orders, not capital; carried in text). Tesla cut 2026 capex to ~$20B from >$25B while targeting 400 MW of SI training compute by year-end, with $30B of bank facilities (a $20B three-year DDTL, a delayed-draw term loan that can be drawn over time, plus $10B of revolvers) in place and undrawn. NVIDIA's DSX POD (seven Vera Rubin NVL72 racks per truck-shippable container, 14-day on-site deployment, early-2027 deliveries) is product, not financevs No closed deployment programme. The week's on-prem capital was product rather than finance: RTX Spark laptops on sale from $2,599 with 128 GB unified memory, Intel GPU D-Series sampling at up to 480 GB per card, Nemotron 3.5 Bolt cut to 24 GB, and three frontier-scale open checkpoints with day-zero serving support; HCLTech's Anthropic business unit is a services commitment with no disclosed amount · Flat
- Revenue out
- Indirectvs Indirect · Flat
- Burn / rev
- n/aLower means more capital out than in.
The read
The on-prem layer's capital events were orders and undrawn facilities rather than closed programmes. Reuters' exclusive has the three Chinese hyperscalers ordering more than 3 million RTX PRO 5500 workstation cards for inference, a sticker value above $35B, against NVIDIA's indicated global 2027 output of ~3 million and a warning that partners may receive 5-10% of requested volumes with TSMC capacity prioritised for Rubin; it is carried at grade 3 as a single-outlet report and reads the fill ratio, not the order, as the datapoint. Cambricon's quarter (revenue doubled to RMB3.53B but ~40% below consensus, inventory RMB11.7B, gated by HBM and wafers) and The Information's report (grade 3) that DeepSeek will begin pretraining on Huawei's Ascend 950DT by end-2026 with most 960DT supply directed to it describe the domestic alternative as supply-bound one generation behind. Tesla, the one US company with a filed on-prem training target (400 MW by year-end across Cortex 1 and 2), cut 2026 capex to ~$20B and left its $30B of September facilities undrawn, saying compute capex becomes 'more meaningful' in 2027. At the laptop and workstation tier the artifacts kept arriving: Recursive's Flint (39.8B / ~2.5B-active, Apache 2.0, ~22.6 GB at INT4, 125+ tokens/s on an M4 Pro vendor-reported), NVIDIA's Nemotron 3.5 Bolt E4B in a 3.1-5.0 GB VRAM envelope with measured 133 tokens/s on an RTX 5070 (vendor), DeepSeek's DeepInfer serving stack under Apache 2.0 for SM100 and Ascend 950, and NVIDIA's DSX POD compressing on-site deployment to 14 days once a powered pad exists. Still no buyer-side procurement attribution to a specific open checkpoint.
This week's transactions
| Date | Transaction | Amount | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-20 | Reuters: ByteDance, Alibaba and Tencent order >3 million NVIDIA RTX PRO 5500 cards (>$35B); NVIDIA caps 2027 output at ~3 million globally, partners told 5-10% fills (grade 3; orders, not capital) | >$35B sticker (reported orders) | Reuters via U.S. News |
| 2026-10-21 | Tesla Q3: 2026 capex cut to ~$20B from >$25B; 400 MW SI training compute targeted by year-end; $30B of facilities ($20B DDTL, $8B and $2B revolvers) undrawn | $30B facilities (undrawn) | SEC EDGAR (Tesla Q3 deck exhibit; 8-K credit agreements) |
| 2026-10-21 | NVIDIA DSX POD: seven Vera Rubin NVL72 racks per ~28,000 kg container, on-site deployment cut from six months to 14 days, partner deliveries early 2027 (product) | Not disclosed | NVIDIA Newsroom; CNBC |
Trend across recent issues
- Capital in
- n/a, n/a, $0B, $0B, $0B, $0B, $0B, $0B
- Revenue out
- n/a, n/a, n/a, n/a, n/a, n/a, n/a, n/a