Capital flow drill-down
Money in, revenue out: the full breakdown.
Issue 26 · Week 42 of 2026.
The four-category capital scorecard expanded with named transactions, burn-to-revenue context, and per-category trends across recent issues. Each row corresponds to a row in the summary table on the issue page.
Capital flow scorecard
Capital in, revenue out, burn ratio, and movement.
| Category | Capital in | Revenue out | Burn to revenue | Movement |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frontier LabsOpenAI, Anthropic, Google DeepMind, DeepSeek | No closed lab equity. Pricing emerged on both layers of the $61.5B Anthropic chip-lease package: the $42B of Broadcom-guaranteed senior loans syndicate at SOFR+150 / +187.5 bp to 2033 (IFR; still in syndication, not closed), and the FT reports Blackstone offered a 10% coupon on ~$9B of the $18B junior tranche (grade 3; carried in text, not charted); Anthropic also signed a 20-year lease for 95 MW at EverWind's C$8B Point Tupper campus, lease value undisclosedPrior No closed lab equity. ~$42B of senior loans launched into syndication to an SPV (a special-purpose vehicle, a shell company that owns the chips and leases them) that leases custom chips to Anthropic, partially guaranteed by Broadcom, part of a $61.5B package with an $18B junior tranche not yet launched (IFR, Bloomberg, FT; anonymous-sourced, grade 3; carried in text, not charted); Manus closed $500M+ at ~$4B (lab-adjacent, not charted); OpenAI's $30B+ round at ~$1.4T is in talks with no lead and is not counted · Flat | Anthropic told pre-IPO investors Q3 revenue was $16.8B, up from $11.6B in Q2 and $4.7B in Q1, with adjusted profit (Reuters, Bloomberg, BBC via attendees; grade 3; Reuters' figures are used, the FT reports $4.8B / $11.5B for Q1 / Q2). The chart value is a house derivation: the quarter annualised (~$67B run-rate), so the series stays in annual run-rate unitsPrior No new disclosure; the W40 reading of ~$4.6B 2025 revenue at one lab, from Reuters' read of a prospectus, stands and is carried · Up | n/a | Lab reports adjusted profit while its unguaranteed compute lenders price at 10-11%; no closed lab equity |
| Hyperscaler-HostedAzure-OpenAI, AWS-Anthropic, Google Cloud-Gemini, Oracle-OCI | No category financing. TrendForce raised top-nine CSP (cloud service provider) capex to $957B for 2026 (+106%) and above $1.5T for 2027 (+60%), and Morgan Stanley's CEO put hyperscaler capex at about $1T a year; both are forecasts and statements, not closed capital, and are carried in textPrior No category financing. Google's 3,590 MW Constellation agreement (20-year PPA, a power purchase agreement, for 890 MW of uprates plus 15-year supply for 2,700 MW of existing output; >$4.3B generator capex, price undisclosed) and Meta's 433 MW Vistra uprates (contracted under January PPAs; the in-window event is DOE's $4.2B conditional loan to Vistra) are power procurement, not compute capital · Flat | No AI-segment revenue disclosure. Microsoft said Maia 200 is in production for Copilot and that Maia 300 will be the primary inference system for Microsoft products from 2027, which is a capacity statement without a revenue linePrior No AI-segment revenue disclosure; Google says about 500 Cloud customers each process more than 1T tokens, a volume figure without a price attached · Flat | n/a | Capex forecasts up 60% for 2027 while a hyperscaler walked away from a contracted neocloud site on a grid date; the buyers of most compute are constrained by energisation, not capital |
| NeocloudsCoreWeave, Nscale, Crusoe, Lambda, IREN, Zankore, NEXTDC | ~$5.8B closed: Volta's $5.012B six-year loan package (a $1.3B lease tranche underwritten by JPMorgan and Goldman; a $3.712B GPU term loan sold best-efforts at SOFR+650 / 95 OID, above 11%, unrated) and Modal's $750M Series D at $15.75B post-money. Cipher's $850M of 0% converts fund a landlord to the category and are carried in text; CoreWeave's unsecured traded to 15-16% and its CDS above 1,000 bp with no new issuePrior ~$0.2B of GPU collateral in two rated equipment ABS (asset-backed securities) pools (Stonebriar ~$869M at ~15% GPU, 9.65% weighted-average implicit rate on the leases; Wingspire $407M at ~20% GPU, 9.22% pool yield), the week's only unguaranteed GPU exposure in a rated instrument; the notes themselves are rated AAA to BBB- and their yields are not reported; Lambda's reported up-to-$4B equity raise at $14.5B pre-money (the valuation before the new money) is unsigned and not counted · Up | No neocloud revenue line. Modal says run-rate crossed $1B in September (vendor-reported; a serverless platform, not a GPU lessor); Nscale's IPO filing carries $103B of contracted revenue with Microsoft above 40%, of which the Loughton anchor (23,000 GPUs) is now terminated; CoreWeave's backlog stands at $104.2B against ~$50-52B of debt and leasesPrior Applied Digital, a landlord to the category, reported FQ1 revenue of $341.9M (+322% YoY); Lambda's backlog is reported at $50B with ~$35B from one lab; neither is a neocloud revenue line · Flat | n/a | First unrated GPU term loan of size clears above 11% best-efforts; holdco unsecured at the largest operator trades distressed; a hyperscaler anchor exits a queued site on a grid date |
| On-Prem / HybridEnterprise GPU clusters, sovereign and national programs, open-weight and on-device deployment | No closed deployment programme. The week's on-prem capital was product rather than finance: RTX Spark laptops on sale from $2,599 with 128 GB unified memory, Intel GPU D-Series sampling at up to 480 GB per card, Nemotron 3.5 Bolt cut to 24 GB, and three frontier-scale open checkpoints with day-zero serving support; HCLTech's Anthropic business unit is a services commitment with no disclosed amountPrior No closed deployment programme. Mistral says Large 4 was trained on 3,800 GPUs in its own European data centres; Flex raised $2.0B of convertible preferred for its Axiom data-centre power and thermal unit at a $37.5B enterprise value (supply-chain capital, not charted); sovereign fabric builds at etisalat, the Japan Virtual Hyperscaler consortium and India's SPECTRA announced · Flat | IndirectPrior Indirect · Flat | n/a | Local-inference hardware sized to the derivative and edge tier of the week's open releases is purchasable; the frontier-scale checkpoints still need multi-node servers; still no buyer-side procurement attribution |
Category
Frontier Labs.
OpenAI, Anthropic, Google DeepMind, DeepSeek
- Capital in
- No closed lab equity. Pricing emerged on both layers of the $61.5B Anthropic chip-lease package: the $42B of Broadcom-guaranteed senior loans syndicate at SOFR+150 / +187.5 bp to 2033 (IFR; still in syndication, not closed), and the FT reports Blackstone offered a 10% coupon on ~$9B of the $18B junior tranche (grade 3; carried in text, not charted); Anthropic also signed a 20-year lease for 95 MW at EverWind's C$8B Point Tupper campus, lease value undisclosedvs No closed lab equity. ~$42B of senior loans launched into syndication to an SPV (a special-purpose vehicle, a shell company that owns the chips and leases them) that leases custom chips to Anthropic, partially guaranteed by Broadcom, part of a $61.5B package with an $18B junior tranche not yet launched (IFR, Bloomberg, FT; anonymous-sourced, grade 3; carried in text, not charted); Manus closed $500M+ at ~$4B (lab-adjacent, not charted); OpenAI's $30B+ round at ~$1.4T is in talks with no lead and is not counted · Flat
- Revenue out
- Anthropic told pre-IPO investors Q3 revenue was $16.8B, up from $11.6B in Q2 and $4.7B in Q1, with adjusted profit (Reuters, Bloomberg, BBC via attendees; grade 3; Reuters' figures are used, the FT reports $4.8B / $11.5B for Q1 / Q2). The chart value is a house derivation: the quarter annualised (~$67B run-rate), so the series stays in annual run-rate unitsvs No new disclosure; the W40 reading of ~$4.6B 2025 revenue at one lab, from Reuters' read of a prospectus, stands and is carried · Up
- Burn / rev
- n/aLower means more capital out than in.
The read
Counting rule unchanged: the chart carries closed capital raised by a lab on its own account, and the senior syndication and junior offer are lease debt owed by an SPV, so they stay in text and the ratio line stays n/a. The revenue value is the Q3 figure annualised (~$67B; grade 3, house derivation) so the series keeps its annual run-rate unit against the prior ~$4.6B 2025 reading; the $16.8B quarter itself is in the transaction line. Investing.com's deceleration arithmetic on the same numbers is carried once, in the signal table. The big story's claim rests on this row read against the neocloud row: the obligor reporting adjusted profit is the one whose unguaranteed lessors paid 10-11%.
This week's transactions
| Date | Transaction | Amount | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16 | FT: Blackstone-managed funds offered a 10% coupon (all-in above 10% after OID and fees) on ~$9B of the $18B unguaranteed junior tranche secured on Anthropic's five-year TPU lease payments, versus ~7% for similarly rated public issuers (KBRA rated Anthropic one notch below investment grade in June; the junior debt is expected to be rated similarly) and 8.5% on the June Big Sky notes; the other $9B to be placed in coming months; 144A-tradable once drawn in 2027 | $9B (junior, offer) | FT via Investing.com |
| Oct 16 | IFR: the $42B of Broadcom-guaranteed senior secured loans split into two $21B tranches at SOFR+187.5 and SOFR+150 bp, both maturing September 30, 2033, with Bank of America, Citigroup and Morgan Stanley as joint lead arrangers and a separate $1.5B term loan; still in syndication | $42B (senior, syndicating) | IFR (LSEG) |
| Oct 14 | Anthropic investor day: Q3 revenue $16.8B (+45% QoQ), adjusted profit; roadshow expected the week of November 9 with trading before Thanksgiving, which requires a public S-1 in late October; investors reportedly discussing $1.8-2.0T (Bloomberg) or ~$1.5T (Reuters exclusive, October 15; outside the graded packet) | $16.8B (Q3 revenue) | Reuters via Investing.com; Bloomberg; BBC |
| Oct 16 | Anthropic signs a 20-year lease for the initial 95 MW phase of EverWind's Point Tupper, Nova Scotia campus (late 2027), with a 325 MW expansion targeted for mid-2028; EverWind's >C$10B programme is privately financed and the tenant has agreed to pay all grid-connection and network-upgrade costs; lease value undisclosed | Undisclosed | EverWind (GlobeNewswire); Reuters via Investing.com |
Trend across recent issues
- Capital in
- $95B, n/a, n/a, $0B, $0B, $10B, $0B, $0B
- Revenue out
- $21B, n/a, n/a, n/a, n/a, $4.6B, $4.6B, $67B
Category
Hyperscaler-Hosted.
Azure-OpenAI, AWS-Anthropic, Google Cloud-Gemini, Oracle-OCI
- Capital in
- No category financing. TrendForce raised top-nine CSP (cloud service provider) capex to $957B for 2026 (+106%) and above $1.5T for 2027 (+60%), and Morgan Stanley's CEO put hyperscaler capex at about $1T a year; both are forecasts and statements, not closed capital, and are carried in textvs No category financing. Google's 3,590 MW Constellation agreement (20-year PPA, a power purchase agreement, for 890 MW of uprates plus 15-year supply for 2,700 MW of existing output; >$4.3B generator capex, price undisclosed) and Meta's 433 MW Vistra uprates (contracted under January PPAs; the in-window event is DOE's $4.2B conditional loan to Vistra) are power procurement, not compute capital · Flat
- Revenue out
- No AI-segment revenue disclosure. Microsoft said Maia 200 is in production for Copilot and that Maia 300 will be the primary inference system for Microsoft products from 2027, which is a capacity statement without a revenue linevs No AI-segment revenue disclosure; Google says about 500 Cloud customers each process more than 1T tokens, a volume figure without a price attached · Flat
- Burn / rev
- n/aLower means more capital out than in.
The read
The row's two facts this week point the same way the thesis test does: the tier with the cheapest capital raised its 2027 spending forecast by 60% (TrendForce) and was stopped only by a grid operator's date (Microsoft at Loughton, in the neocloud row because the site is Nscale's). Microsoft's Maia 300 disclosure (hardware lens) and its 12,288-accelerator superpod (networking lens) are what that capex buys; neither carries a price.
This week's transactions
| Date | Transaction | Amount | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 14 | TrendForce: top-nine CSP capex projected at $957B in 2026 (+106%) and above $1.5T in 2027 (+60%, from a prior +50% view), citing higher system prices, component quotations amid shortages and supplier advance-payment demands; AI server revenue to exceed $920B in 2027 | $1.5T+ (2027 forecast) | TrendForce |
| Oct 13-14 | Bank Q3 calls: JPMorgan's CFO says AI exposures are modest but the bank would not be 'immune' to a sentiment change; Goldman's CEO sees a financing 'recalibration'; Morgan Stanley's CEO puts hyperscaler capex at ~$1T a year | Not disclosed | CNBC live blog; Morgan Stanley transcript |
Trend across recent issues
- Capital in
- $250B, n/a, n/a, $18B, $0B, $0B, $0B, $0B
- Revenue out
- $70B, n/a, n/a, n/a, n/a, n/a, n/a, n/a
Category
Neoclouds.
CoreWeave, Nscale, Crusoe, Lambda, IREN, Zankore, NEXTDC
- Capital in
- ~$5.8B closed: Volta's $5.012B six-year loan package (a $1.3B lease tranche underwritten by JPMorgan and Goldman; a $3.712B GPU term loan sold best-efforts at SOFR+650 / 95 OID, above 11%, unrated) and Modal's $750M Series D at $15.75B post-money. Cipher's $850M of 0% converts fund a landlord to the category and are carried in text; CoreWeave's unsecured traded to 15-16% and its CDS above 1,000 bp with no new issuevs ~$0.2B of GPU collateral in two rated equipment ABS (asset-backed securities) pools (Stonebriar ~$869M at ~15% GPU, 9.65% weighted-average implicit rate on the leases; Wingspire $407M at ~20% GPU, 9.22% pool yield), the week's only unguaranteed GPU exposure in a rated instrument; the notes themselves are rated AAA to BBB- and their yields are not reported; Lambda's reported up-to-$4B equity raise at $14.5B pre-money (the valuation before the new money) is unsigned and not counted · Up
- Revenue out
- No neocloud revenue line. Modal says run-rate crossed $1B in September (vendor-reported; a serverless platform, not a GPU lessor); Nscale's IPO filing carries $103B of contracted revenue with Microsoft above 40%, of which the Loughton anchor (23,000 GPUs) is now terminated; CoreWeave's backlog stands at $104.2B against ~$50-52B of debt and leasesvs Applied Digital, a landlord to the category, reported FQ1 revenue of $341.9M (+322% YoY); Lambda's backlog is reported at $50B with ~$35B from one lab; neither is a neocloud revenue line · Flat
- Burn / rev
- n/aLower means more capital out than in.
The read
The chart value is Volta ($5.012B) plus Modal ($0.75B). Volta is the week's cleanest price on unguaranteed GPU credit: banks would underwrite the lease tranche (cash-collateralising a letter of credit, a bank guarantee to the landlord backed with cash from the loan, on a 16-year Bitdeer lease) and not the GPUs, and the GPU piece needed 150 bp more spread and 3 points more discount than the September sounding despite a six-year Anthropic offtake; the loan carries a ratings-based margin step, which Bloomberg (outside the graded packet) reports is pegged to Anthropic's rating. PitchBook LCD's year-to-date counts ($13.2B of institutional leveraged loans for data-centre infrastructure against $2B in all of 2025; $50.1B of high-yield bonds against $13.6B) say the category's debt market is ten times last year's size and pricing like it. CoreWeave is the mark on the holdco layer (debt at the parent company, behind every project's own lenders): 9.625% notes sold at par in June below 80, CDS implying about 63% five-year default probability per LSEG (the data provider), and a co-founder's pitch that investment-grade ratings on chip-backed debt would unlock 'unlimited' insurance capital. The Nscale event belongs here as the first case of contracted revenue in an IPO filing losing its anchor with a grid date as the stated cause; the synthesis's first second-order effect is that backlog disclosure acquires a power schedule.
This week's transactions
| Date | Transaction | Amount | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 15 | Volta Infrastructure prices a $5.012B six-year package: $1.3B first-lien term loan C cash-collateralising a letter of credit for its 16-year lease of Bitdeer's 121 MW Tydal, Norway campus; $3.712B GPU term loan to buy ~36,000 Vera Rubin GPUs; SOFR+650 at 95 OID (talk S+625-650 at 97-98), yield above 11%, unrated, with a prepayment penalty and ratings-based margin step (pegged to Anthropic reaching investment grade per Bloomberg, outside the graded packet); Anthropic has a six-year compute offtake at the site (Bloomberg) | $5.012B | PitchBook LCD; Bloomberg via Business Times |
| Oct 14 | Modal raises $750M Series D at $15.75B post-money led by Accel, five months after a $355M Series C at $4.65B; run-rate above $1B in September and Sandboxes at a $300M run-rate (vendor-reported) | $750M | Modal; Accel |
| Oct 14 | Cipher Digital prices $850M of 0.00% convertible notes due 2032 (convertible at a 35% premium to the share price; capped calls, an option overlay, limit dilution to a 150% premium) to fund additional Barber Lake equity after a 36-38% overrun (Wells Fargo); contracted Barber Lake revenue lifted from $3.8B to >$9B on a 20-year lease to Fluidstack with Google credit support; landlord to the category, not charted | $850M | Cipher Digital pricing release; SEC 8-K |
| Oct 14-16 | CoreWeave: 9.625% 2032 notes below 80 (~15% yield), 9.75% 2031 notes at 15.78%, five-year CDS above 1,140 bp intraday and near 1,200 bp by October 16 per Reuters (~63% implied five-year default probability per LSEG); shares down as much as 17% on October 14; ~$50-52B of debt and leases, $640M of Q2 interest, consensus free cash flow of about -$25B this year | No new issue | CNBC; Reuters via Investing.com |
| Oct 18 (reported after the issue date; the research window closes Sunday, see changelog) | Microsoft terminates its anchor agreement (23,000 Nvidia GPUs) at Nscale's £2B Loughton, Essex campus; the Telegraph, single-sourced, reports the cause as the grid operator putting power in the 2030s, with Nscale on record and Microsoft not commenting; Nscale has filed for an NYSE IPO at up to $35B with Microsoft above 40% of $103B contracted revenue and says it remains committed to the site | Anchor terminated | BBC; The Guardian; Telegraph via Yahoo Finance |
Trend across recent issues
- Capital in
- $25.5B, n/a, n/a, $3B, $4.2B, $1.4B, $0.2B, $5.8B
- Revenue out
- $8B, n/a, n/a, n/a, n/a, n/a, n/a, n/a
Category
On-Prem / Hybrid.
Enterprise GPU clusters, sovereign and national programs, open-weight and on-device deployment
- Capital in
- No closed deployment programme. The week's on-prem capital was product rather than finance: RTX Spark laptops on sale from $2,599 with 128 GB unified memory, Intel GPU D-Series sampling at up to 480 GB per card, Nemotron 3.5 Bolt cut to 24 GB, and three frontier-scale open checkpoints with day-zero serving support; HCLTech's Anthropic business unit is a services commitment with no disclosed amountvs No closed deployment programme. Mistral says Large 4 was trained on 3,800 GPUs in its own European data centres; Flex raised $2.0B of convertible preferred for its Axiom data-centre power and thermal unit at a $37.5B enterprise value (supply-chain capital, not charted); sovereign fabric builds at etisalat, the Japan Virtual Hyperscaler consortium and India's SPECTRA announced · Flat
- Revenue out
- Indirectvs Indirect · Flat
- Burn / rev
- n/aLower means more capital out than in.
The read
The thesis's fourth hypothesis has waited since W37 for a buyer who says in a procurement document that open weights routed compute on-prem. This week supplied the supply side instead, and only for the smaller tier: a 128 GB notebook from six OEMs fits Bolt 74B-A9B and LFM2.5-24B, a 480 GB air-cooled PCIe card is sized for 300B-parameter models, and the week's 501B, 763B and 816B checkpoints (the community NVFP4 build of DeepSeek is 429 GB; Muse Spark Open ran on two 512 GB Mac Studios) route to multi-node servers. The row stays at zero because none of that is a closed enterprise or sovereign deployment, and the synthesis records it as supply-side evidence for the routing half's edge tier rather than as the attribution the hypothesis needs.
This week's transactions
| Date | Transaction | Amount | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16 | RTX Spark laptops on sale from ASUS, Dell, HP, Lenovo, Microsoft and MSI from $2,599 (up to 128 GB unified memory, up to 1 PFLOP FP4); compact desktops in November; DGX Station for Windows still 'Q4' | Retail product | NVIDIA Newsroom; Tom's Hardware |
| Oct 12 | Intel GPU D-Series (formerly Crescent Island): 1.3 PFLOPS FP8, 1.5 TB/s, up to 480 GB LPDDR5X in a 350 W air-cooled PCIe card, sampling to Asus, Cisco, Dell, HPE, Lenovo and Supermicro; targets 300B-parameter models per card | Sampling | Intel press release |
| Oct 12 | HCLTech and Anthropic sign a Global Premier Partnership: dedicated Anthropic business unit, forward-deployed engineers, Claude and Claude Code embedded in BigFix, AppScan and AI Force; no commercial terms disclosed (The Application Layer carries the deal) | Undisclosed | HCLTech press release |
Trend across recent issues
- Capital in
- $103B, n/a, n/a, $0B, $0B, $0B, $0B, $0B
- Revenue out
- $38B, n/a, n/a, n/a, n/a, n/a, n/a, n/a