Capital flow drill-down
Money in, revenue out: the full breakdown.
Issue 25 · Week 41 of 2026.
The four-category capital scorecard expanded with named transactions, burn-to-revenue context, and per-category trends across recent issues. Each row corresponds to a row in the summary table on the issue page.
Capital flow scorecard
Capital in, revenue out, burn ratio, and movement.
| Category | Capital in | Revenue out | Burn to revenue | Movement |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frontier LabsOpenAI, Anthropic, Google DeepMind, DeepSeek | No closed lab equity. ~$42B of senior loans launched into syndication to an SPV that leases custom chips to Anthropic, partially guaranteed by Broadcom, part of a $61.5B package with an $18B junior tranche not yet launched (IFR, Bloomberg, FT; anonymous-sourced, grade 3; carried in text, not charted); Manus closed $500M+ at ~$4B (lab-adjacent, not charted); OpenAI's $30B+ round at ~$1.4T is in talks with no lead and is not countedPrior $10B SoftBank final tranche to OpenAI (confirmed), funded from an $11.1B multi-currency high-yield sale; Nvidia's final $10B reported by The Information from a single source and not counted in the chart value · Down | No new disclosure; the W40 reading of ~$4.6B 2025 revenue at one lab, from Reuters' read of a prospectus, stands and is carriedPrior ~$4.6B 2025 revenue at one lab, per Reuters' read of a prospectus not yet on EDGAR (the SEC's public filing database); against a $42B net loss including ~$34B non-cash · Flat | n/a | Lab compute financed as partially guaranteed lease debt into an SPV; no closed lab equity this week |
| Hyperscaler-HostedAzure-OpenAI, AWS-Anthropic, Google Cloud-Gemini, Oracle-OCI | No category financing. Google's 3,590 MW Constellation agreement (20-year PPA, a power purchase agreement, for 890 MW of uprates plus 15-year supply for 2,700 MW of existing output; >$4.3B generator capex, price undisclosed) and Meta's 433 MW Vistra uprates (contracted under January PPAs; the in-window event is DOE's $4.2B conditional loan to Vistra) are power procurement, not compute capitalPrior No new category-wide financing; Amazon's 20-year, 690 MW Calvert Cliffs PPA (power purchase agreement) enables >$3B of plant investment at an undisclosed price · Flat | No AI-segment revenue disclosure; Google says about 500 Cloud customers each process more than 1T tokens, a volume figure without a price attachedPrior No new AI-segment revenue disclosure; Amazon and Google's convertible gains on Anthropic are visible only through the lab's ~$34B charge · Flat | n/a | Existing nuclear bought as firm supply while FERC rejected the proposed rule that would have exposed new load without new capacity to curtailment |
| NeocloudsCoreWeave, Nscale, Crusoe, Lambda, IREN, Zankore, NEXTDC | ~$0.2B of GPU collateral in two rated equipment ABS pools (Stonebriar ~$869M at ~15% GPU, 9.65% weighted-average implicit rate on the leases; Wingspire $407M at ~20% GPU, 9.22% pool yield), the week's only unguaranteed GPU exposure in a rated instrument; the notes themselves are rated AAA to BBB- and their yields are not reported; Lambda's reported up-to-$4B equity raise at $14.5B pre-money (the valuation before the new money) is unsigned and not countedPrior ~$1.4B of new term debt: Lambda $1.008B at 6.78% (investment grade) and Sharon AI $356M at 9.95% (unrated); plus Hut 8's $1.07B revolver, undrawn at close and not counted in the chart value · Down | Applied Digital, a landlord to the category, reported FQ1 revenue of $341.9M (+322% YoY); Lambda's backlog is reported at $50B with ~$35B from one lab; neither is a neocloud revenue linePrior No new revenue disclosure; Nebius's 12-year, 50 MW lease commits ~$1.32B of rent to AIB Data Centers (house measurement below) · Flat | n/a | Small-obligor GPU lease exposure inside rated equipment ABS at 9.2-9.65% implicit rates; the lessor's first-generation notes cover at ~1.0x |
| On-Prem / HybridEnterprise GPU clusters, sovereign and national programs, open-weight and on-device deployment | No closed deployment programme. Mistral says Large 4 was trained on 3,800 GPUs in its own European data centres; Flex raised $2.0B of convertible preferred for its Axiom data-centre power and thermal unit at a $37.5B enterprise value (supply-chain capital, not charted); sovereign fabric builds at etisalat, the Japan Virtual Hyperscaler consortium and India's SPECTRA announcedPrior No closed program; JERA, Dell and RHAELM signed a non-binding MoU for a >$15B, 400 MW behind-the-meter campus at Chiba (the plant feeds the campus directly, bypassing the grid), with Apollo as intended financing partner · Flat | IndirectPrior Indirect · Flat | n/a | The on-prem frontier moved to the desktop and the promised, not shipped, open weights |
Category
Frontier Labs.
OpenAI, Anthropic, Google DeepMind, DeepSeek
- Capital in
- No closed lab equity. ~$42B of senior loans launched into syndication to an SPV that leases custom chips to Anthropic, partially guaranteed by Broadcom, part of a $61.5B package with an $18B junior tranche not yet launched (IFR, Bloomberg, FT; anonymous-sourced, grade 3; carried in text, not charted); Manus closed $500M+ at ~$4B (lab-adjacent, not charted); OpenAI's $30B+ round at ~$1.4T is in talks with no lead and is not countedvs $10B SoftBank final tranche to OpenAI (confirmed), funded from an $11.1B multi-currency high-yield sale; Nvidia's final $10B reported by The Information from a single source and not counted in the chart value · Down
- Revenue out
- No new disclosure; the W40 reading of ~$4.6B 2025 revenue at one lab, from Reuters' read of a prospectus, stands and is carriedvs ~$4.6B 2025 revenue at one lab, per Reuters' read of a prospectus not yet on EDGAR (the SEC's public filing database); against a $42B net loss including ~$34B non-cash · Flat
- Burn / rev
- n/aLower means more capital out than in.
The read
Counting rule: the chart carries closed capital raised by a lab on its own account. The $42B senior syndication is lease debt owed by an SPV, partially guaranteed by Broadcom, launched rather than closed, so it is reported in text and the ratio line stays n/a; charting it as lab capital while refusing to divide it by lab revenue would be inconsistent. OpenAI's reported $30B+ at ~$1.4T has no lead investor and is grade 2; Manus is lab-adjacent. The $18B junior tranche (Blackstone reported at ~$9B) is the instrument that marks Anthropic, and the big story and the synthesis's junior-tranche connection argue it will be an anchored private price.
This week's transactions
| Date | Transaction | Amount | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 5 | Bank of America, Citigroup and Morgan Stanley launch $42B of senior loans (2 x $21B, SOFR+150 / +187.5 bp, to Sep 30, 2033), partially guaranteed by Broadcom, to an SPV leasing custom chips to Anthropic; part of a $61.5B package; IFR notes the 37.5 bp spread difference may reflect different guarantee structures | $42B | IFR |
| Oct 6 | FT (via Dealroom): $18B junior Class B tranche led by Blackstone (~$9B committed), expected over coming months; the order covers 15 GW of chips over two years; the FT's source ties the senior loans' investment-grade bond takeout to Broadcom's A-minus rating (agency not named); Broadcom five-year CDS at 133 bp on Oct 9 (LSEG via IFR) | $18B (junior, unlaunched) | Dealroom, citing the Financial Times |
| Oct 8 | Manus parent Butterfly Effect closes a $500M+ round co-led by Boyu Capital and IDG Capital; ~$4B valuation per Bloomberg's September report, not confirmed by the company | $500M+ | TechCrunch |
| Oct 5 | OpenAI in talks for a $30B+ round at a company-set ~$1.4T pre-money; UAE funds including MGX weighing up to $10B, BlackRock in talks, no lead investor (single outlet, not charted) | $30B+ (talks) | Bloomberg Law (Bloomberg News) |
Trend across recent issues
- Capital in
- $95B, $95B, n/a, n/a, $0B, $0B, $10B, $0B
- Revenue out
- $21B, $21B, n/a, n/a, n/a, n/a, $4.6B, $4.6B
Category
Hyperscaler-Hosted.
Azure-OpenAI, AWS-Anthropic, Google Cloud-Gemini, Oracle-OCI
- Capital in
- No category financing. Google's 3,590 MW Constellation agreement (20-year PPA, a power purchase agreement, for 890 MW of uprates plus 15-year supply for 2,700 MW of existing output; >$4.3B generator capex, price undisclosed) and Meta's 433 MW Vistra uprates (contracted under January PPAs; the in-window event is DOE's $4.2B conditional loan to Vistra) are power procurement, not compute capitalvs No new category-wide financing; Amazon's 20-year, 690 MW Calvert Cliffs PPA (power purchase agreement) enables >$3B of plant investment at an undisclosed price · Flat
- Revenue out
- No AI-segment revenue disclosure; Google says about 500 Cloud customers each process more than 1T tokens, a volume figure without a price attachedvs No new AI-segment revenue disclosure; Amazon and Google's convertible gains on Anthropic are visible only through the lab's ~$34B charge · Flat
- Burn / rev
- n/aLower means more capital out than in.
The read
Counting rule: power procurement is not compute capital, so the chart stays at zero; the generator's capital is the >$4.3B of uprate work, funded by Constellation and, in Vistra's case, a conditional DOE loan against PPAs Meta signed in January. The Google deal is 75% existing output and Meta's January PPAs are 83%; Google's follows Amazon's Calvert Cliffs PPA last week as the second large firm-supply nuclear deal in a fortnight. Google's 500-customers-above-1T-tokens figure is a token count, not a price, so it stays out of the revenue column.
This week's transactions
| Date | Transaction | Amount | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 6 | Google and Constellation: 890 MW of nuclear uprates under 20-year PPAs plus 2,700 MW of 15-year supply from existing output; >$4.3B generator capex | Price undisclosed | Constellation Energy |
| Oct 5 | DOE issues a conditional loan commitment of up to $4.2B to Vistra for 433 MW of uprates at Perry, Davis-Besse and Beaver Valley, contracted to Meta under its 20-year PPAs | Up to $4.2B (conditional) | US Department of Energy |
Trend across recent issues
- Capital in
- $250B, $250B, n/a, n/a, $18B, $0B, $0B, $0B
- Revenue out
- $70B, $70B, n/a, n/a, n/a, n/a, n/a, n/a
Category
Neoclouds.
CoreWeave, Nscale, Crusoe, Lambda, IREN, Zankore, NEXTDC
- Capital in
- ~$0.2B of GPU collateral in two rated equipment ABS pools (Stonebriar ~$869M at ~15% GPU, 9.65% weighted-average implicit rate on the leases; Wingspire $407M at ~20% GPU, 9.22% pool yield), the week's only unguaranteed GPU exposure in a rated instrument; the notes themselves are rated AAA to BBB- and their yields are not reported; Lambda's reported up-to-$4B equity raise at $14.5B pre-money (the valuation before the new money) is unsigned and not countedvs ~$1.4B of new term debt: Lambda $1.008B at 6.78% (investment grade) and Sharon AI $356M at 9.95% (unrated); plus Hut 8's $1.07B revolver, undrawn at close and not counted in the chart value · Down
- Revenue out
- Applied Digital, a landlord to the category, reported FQ1 revenue of $341.9M (+322% YoY); Lambda's backlog is reported at $50B with ~$35B from one lab; neither is a neocloud revenue linevs No new revenue disclosure; Nebius's 12-year, 50 MW lease commits ~$1.32B of rent to AIB Data Centers (house measurement below) · Flat
- Burn / rev
- n/aLower means more capital out than in.
The read
Counting rule: the chart carries the GPU share of the two pools, because that is the only unguaranteed GPU exposure that reached a rated instrument this week. The 9.22% and 9.65% figures are the weighted implicit rates 47 small obligors pay on the underlying leases (80-85% non-GPU equipment), roughly 245-290 bp over Lambda's 6.78% coupon, and they are the nearest unguaranteed comparator rather than a clearing yield; the notes' yields are not reported. Lambda's reported equity raise is unsigned and not charted; Applied Digital's results are the week's house measurement.
This week's transactions
| Date | Transaction | Amount | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 5 | Stonebriar's SCF Equipment Leasing 2026-1 (~$869M, ~15% GPU loans, settles Oct 14; 9.65% weighted-average implicit rate per the KBRA presale) and Wingspire's WEF 2026-1 ($407M, closed Sep 24, ~20% GPU; 9.22% pool yield per Wingspire); GPU shares are anonymous-sourced | ~$0.2B GPU share | Asset Securitization Report (Bloomberg); KBRA presale via StreetInsider for the rates |
| Oct 6 | Lambda raising up to $4B at a $14.5B pre-money valuation, led by Blackstone and Coatue, as a final private round before a planned 2027 IPO; backlog $50B per an LP letter (not closed, not charted) | Up to $4B (in progress) | The Wall Street Journal |
| Oct 7 | Applied Digital FQ1 FY2027: revenue $341.9M (+322%), $3.7B cash against $6.4B debt, $1.59B of 7% notes completing Polaris Forge 1 funding; up to 1 GW of power secured in Finland (Oct 6) | $341.9M revenue | Applied Digital |
Trend across recent issues
- Capital in
- $24.6B, $25.5B, n/a, n/a, $3B, $4.2B, $1.4B, $0.2B
- Revenue out
- $8B, $8B, n/a, n/a, n/a, n/a, n/a, n/a
Category
On-Prem / Hybrid.
Enterprise GPU clusters, sovereign and national programs, open-weight and on-device deployment
- Capital in
- No closed deployment programme. Mistral says Large 4 was trained on 3,800 GPUs in its own European data centres; Flex raised $2.0B of convertible preferred for its Axiom data-centre power and thermal unit at a $37.5B enterprise value (supply-chain capital, not charted); sovereign fabric builds at etisalat, the Japan Virtual Hyperscaler consortium and India's SPECTRA announcedvs No closed program; JERA, Dell and RHAELM signed a non-binding MoU for a >$15B, 400 MW behind-the-meter campus at Chiba (the plant feeds the campus directly, bypassing the grid), with Apollo as intended financing partner · Flat
- Revenue out
- Indirectvs Indirect · Flat
- Burn / rev
- n/aLower means more capital out than in.
The read
Counting rule: the chart carries closed deployment programmes, and there were none; Flex's $2.0B Axiom raise funds a vendor, the sovereign fabric programmes are network capital (networking lens), and Mistral's 3,800-GPU training run is a disclosure, not a transaction. Nvidia's DGX Station for Windows and RTX Spark laptop ship October 16 as the first desktop marketed for trillion-parameter open models, while the two Western models marketed with them cannot yet be downloaded.
This week's transactions
| Date | Transaction | Amount | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 5 | Flex sells $2.0B of Series A convertible preferred in Axiom, its data-centre power, thermal and compute unit, to General Catalyst and Koch Equity Development at a $37.5B enterprise value ahead of a Q1 2027 spin-off | $2.0B | Flex (8-K Exhibit 99.1) |
| Oct 7 | Nvidia DGX Station for Windows (GB300, 748 GB) and RTX Spark 128 GB laptops available October 16 via eight OEMs; prices unannounced | Undisclosed | Nvidia |
Trend across recent issues
- Capital in
- $103B, $103B, n/a, n/a, $0B, $0B, $0B, $0B
- Revenue out
- $38B, $38B, n/a, n/a, n/a, n/a, n/a, n/a