Capital flow drill-down
Money in, revenue out: the full breakdown.
Issue 24 · Week 40 of 2026.
The four-category capital scorecard expanded with named transactions, burn-to-revenue context, and per-category trends across recent issues. Each row corresponds to a row in the summary table on the issue page.
Capital flow scorecard
Capital in, revenue out, burn ratio, and movement.
| Category | Capital in | Revenue out | Burn to revenue | Movement |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frontier LabsOpenAI, Anthropic, Google DeepMind, DeepSeek | $10B SoftBank final tranche to OpenAI (confirmed), funded from an $11.1B multi-currency high-yield sale; Nvidia's final $10B reported by The Information from a single source and not counted in the chart valuePrior No disclosed primary financing in the observation window · Up | ~$4.6B 2025 revenue at one lab, per Reuters' read of a prospectus not yet on EDGAR (the SEC's public filing database); against a $42B net loss including ~$34B non-cashPrior Undisclosed · Flat | n/a as a category ratio: the week's capital in is OpenAI's and the only revenue figure is Anthropic's (grade 3); the one-lab operating loss to revenue, about 1.8x, is in the narrative | SoftBank's final tranche closed (confirmed, $10B) and Nvidia's was reported (single source, a further $10B not in the chart value); a $30B bridge at $1.4T was reported; AMD agreed to buy World Labs for ~$8.2B in stock. The junior-most capital behind the SoftBank wire is public credit |
| Hyperscaler-HostedAzure-OpenAI, AWS-Anthropic, Google Cloud-Gemini, Oracle-OCI | No new category-wide financing; Amazon's 20-year, 690 MW Calvert Cliffs PPA (power purchase agreement) enables >$3B of plant investment at an undisclosed pricePrior No new category-wide financing disclosed · Flat | No new AI-segment revenue disclosure; Amazon and Google's convertible gains on Anthropic are visible only through the lab's ~$34B chargePrior No new AI-segment revenue disclosure · Flat | n/a; the suppliers' AI-segment margins remain undisclosed and their lab stakes are marked through the labs' filings, not their own | Power procurement, not financing: 690 MW of firm nuclear for 20 years plus a 190 MW uprate (raising an existing plant's output), bought after Amazon abandoned a co-location campus at the same site |
| NeocloudsCoreWeave, Nscale, Crusoe, Lambda, IREN, Zankore, NEXTDC | ~$1.4B of new term debt: Lambda $1.008B at 6.78% (investment grade) and Sharon AI $356M at 9.95% (unrated); plus Hut 8's $1.07B revolver, undrawn at close and not counted in the chart valuePrior $4.2B of 2.875% convertible notes due 2033, option exercised in full · Down | No new revenue disclosure; Nebius's 12-year, 50 MW lease commits ~$1.32B of rent to AIB Data Centers (house measurement below)Prior No new revenue disclosure · Flat | n/a; the category disclosed no revenue this week. Rent coverage for the one lease with a filed stack is in the house measurement | The debt stack is tiering by counterparty: rated paper on investment-grade offtakers, unrated paper 317 bp wider, and a revolver layered on project bonds at Hut 8 |
| On-Prem / HybridEnterprise GPU clusters, sovereign and national programs, open-weight and on-device deployment | No closed program; JERA, Dell and RHAELM signed a non-binding MoU for a >$15B, 400 MW behind-the-meter campus at Chiba (the plant feeds the campus directly, bypassing the grid), with Apollo as intended financing partnerPrior No comparable disclosed program in the window · Flat | IndirectPrior Indirect · Flat | Not applicable; the category's revenue is captured in OEM and chip-vendor filings, not in a disclosed AI segment | Announced but unfunded: a $15B sovereign MoU, a commercial Ascend 950 cluster service in China, and a $4,999 desktop box with half the memory |
Category
Frontier Labs.
OpenAI, Anthropic, Google DeepMind, DeepSeek
- Capital in
- $10B SoftBank final tranche to OpenAI (confirmed), funded from an $11.1B multi-currency high-yield sale; Nvidia's final $10B reported by The Information from a single source and not counted in the chart valuevs No disclosed primary financing in the observation window · Up
- Revenue out
- ~$4.6B 2025 revenue at one lab, per Reuters' read of a prospectus not yet on EDGAR (the SEC's public filing database); against a $42B net loss including ~$34B non-cashvs Undisclosed · Flat
- Burn / rev
- n/a as a category ratio: the week's capital in is OpenAI's and the only revenue figure is Anthropic's (grade 3); the one-lab operating loss to revenue, about 1.8x, is in the narrativeLower means more capital out than in.
The read
SoftBank wired its final $10 billion to OpenAI on October 1 from the $11.1 billion of senior notes announced September 24, the day after cancelling the undrawn remainder of its $40 billion March bridge facility: a bank bridge termed out into eight-year public paper, which is the W33 duration-mismatch thread arriving at the lab-funding layer. The Information reported from one source that Nvidia completed its own $30 billion pledge the same week, and Bloomberg reported early talks on a $30 billion-plus bridge at about $1.4 trillion. AMD agreed to acquire World Labs for about $8.2 billion in AMD stock. Anthropic's figures come from Reuters' description of a prospectus that is not on EDGAR: roughly $4.6 billion of 2025 revenue, a $42 billion net loss of which about $34 billion is a non-cash remeasurement of convertible financing, an operating loss above $8 billion (about 1.8x revenue), $518 billion of compute obligations, of which Reuters' September 29 follow-up puts about $221 billion with Google and Amazon, and $20.28 billion of cash. Amazon's $92 billion unrealised gain on $8 billion of notes is IFR's figure, secondary and outside the graded set. Treat every Anthropic figure as reported, not filed.
This week's transactions
| Date | Transaction | Amount | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 1 | SoftBank final $10B tranche to OpenAI, funded from $11.1B of senior notes: three dollar tranches at 8.625% / 9.25% / 9.75% totalling $10.0B plus two euro tranches (tranche terms per SoftBank's Sep 24 notes release) | $10B | SoftBank Group |
| Oct 1 | Reuters confirms SoftBank's completion of its $30B OpenAI investment; the report covers SoftBank only | Not disclosed | Reuters via StreetInsider |
| Oct 1 | Nvidia reported to complete its $30B OpenAI pledge with a final $10B (single source; not confirmed by Nvidia or OpenAI) | $10B (reported) | The Information |
| Sep 28 | AMD agrees to acquire World Labs for ~$8.2B in AMD stock (signed Sep 26; close expected by end-2026) | ~$8.2B (stock) | AMD Investor Relations |
| Sep 28 | Anthropic prospectus figures: ~$4.6B revenue, $42B net loss, $518B obligations, $20.28B cash (Reuters, document seen) | Not disclosed | CNBC (Reuters) |
| Sep 29 | Reuters follow-up: ~$111.1B of Anthropic's obligations are with Google (through July 2033) and ~$110B with Amazon (through April 2036), about $221B of the $518B | Not disclosed | Reuters via CNA |
| Sep 29 | OpenAI in early talks for a $30B+ bridge round at ~$1.4T (Bloomberg, unconfirmed) | $30B+ (talks) | TechCrunch citing Bloomberg |
Trend across recent issues
- Capital in
- $95B, $95B, $95B, n/a, n/a, $0B, $0B, $10B
- Revenue out
- $21B, $21B, $21B, n/a, n/a, n/a, n/a, $4.6B
Category
Hyperscaler-Hosted.
Azure-OpenAI, AWS-Anthropic, Google Cloud-Gemini, Oracle-OCI
- Capital in
- No new category-wide financing; Amazon's 20-year, 690 MW Calvert Cliffs PPA (power purchase agreement) enables >$3B of plant investment at an undisclosed pricevs No new category-wide financing disclosed · Flat
- Revenue out
- No new AI-segment revenue disclosure; Amazon and Google's convertible gains on Anthropic are visible only through the lab's ~$34B chargevs No new AI-segment revenue disclosure · Flat
- Burn / rev
- n/a; the suppliers' AI-segment margins remain undisclosed and their lab stakes are marked through the labs' filings, not their ownLower means more capital out than in.
The read
Amazon signed a 20-year power purchase agreement with Constellation for 690 MW at Calvert Cliffs, funding a 190 MW uprate and more than $3 billion of plant investment, plus a retail supply agreement covering Amazon's operations across the 13-state PJM market; the price was not disclosed, and a contract to buy power is not capital into the hyperscaler category. The sequence is the signal: Amazon abandoned a roughly 500 MW data-centre campus adjacent to the plant in August (reported by DCD; the Constellation release does not mention it) and bought grid-delivered, bilateral power instead. That is the kind of load PJM's Market Monitor counts as cancelled or delayed; the order does not place this project in the monitor's set, which is concentrated in the Dominion and AEP-Ohio zones. The other hyperscaler item sits in Anthropic's prospectus as Reuters read it: about $221 billion of the $518 billion of compute obligations are with Google and Amazon, and roughly $34 billion of the loss is the remeasurement of convertible financing those suppliers hold. The suppliers are also the offtakers and the senior investors. Hyperscaler AI-segment margins remain undisclosed.
This week's transactions
| Date | Transaction | Amount | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 30 | Amazon 20-year, 690 MW nuclear PPA with Constellation at Calvert Cliffs; 190 MW uprate, >$3B plant investment | Not disclosed | Constellation Energy |
| Sep 30 | DCD on the PPA, noting Amazon's August abandonment of a ~500 MW campus adjacent to the plant | Not disclosed | Data Center Dynamics |
| Sep 29 | GPT-6.1 Sol GA on Amazon Bedrock at launch; Grok 4.7 added to Bedrock Sep 28 | Not disclosed | AWS |
Trend across recent issues
- Capital in
- $250B, $250B, $250B, n/a, n/a, $18B, $0B, $0B
- Revenue out
- $70B, $70B, $70B, n/a, n/a, n/a, n/a, n/a
Category
Neoclouds.
CoreWeave, Nscale, Crusoe, Lambda, IREN, Zankore, NEXTDC
- Capital in
- ~$1.4B of new term debt: Lambda $1.008B at 6.78% (investment grade) and Sharon AI $356M at 9.95% (unrated); plus Hut 8's $1.07B revolver, undrawn at close and not counted in the chart valuevs $4.2B of 2.875% convertible notes due 2033, option exercised in full · Down
- Revenue out
- No new revenue disclosure; Nebius's 12-year, 50 MW lease commits ~$1.32B of rent to AIB Data Centers (house measurement below)vs No new revenue disclosure · Flat
- Burn / rev
- n/a; the category disclosed no revenue this week. Rent coverage for the one lease with a filed stack is in the house measurementLower means more capital out than in.
The read
Three GPU-backed debt prints in a week priced the counterparty, not the chip. Lambda's $1.008 billion delayed-draw term loan, drawn in pieces as hardware is delivered, carries A(low) and Baa1 ratings on the strength of two unnamed investment-grade offtakers. Sharon AI's unrated $356 million facility (DCD reports $365 million; the company release says $356 million) was announced the same day, October 1, after signing on September 28, against more than $8.8 billion of stated customer contracts and no rated tenant. Hut 8 closed a $1.07 billion four-year revolver (a credit line that can be drawn and repaid) on September 24 and announced it September 28; its Form 8-K prices it at adjusted term SOFR plus 1.75% initially on a 1.50-2.00% leverage grid (SOFR is the overnight benchmark rate), layered above $7.5 billion of non-recourse project bonds for the River Bend and Beacon Point campuses, where lenders may look only to the project's assets. Nebius's binding 50 MW lease with AIB Data Centers is a tenant commitment, not capital into the neocloud; the house measurement shows that in AIB's illustrative stack the tenant's prepayment is the landlord's only common equity.
This week's transactions
| Date | Transaction | Amount | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 1 | Lambda closes $1.008B investment-grade delayed-draw term loan at 6.78% fixed, A(low) / Baa1 | $1.008B | Lambda |
| Oct 1 | Sharon AI announces $356M unrated GPU-backed SPV facility at a fixed 9.95% ex-fees (signed Sep 28) | $356M | Sharon AI via PR Newswire |
| Sep 24 | Hut 8 closes $1.07B four-year senior secured revolver (announced Sep 28), layered on $7.5B of non-recourse project bonds; adjusted term SOFR + 1.75% initially per the 8-K | $1.07B (undrawn) | Hut 8 Form 8-K |
| Sep 30 | Nebius signs binding 12-year, 50 MW colocation lease with AIB Data Centers; ~$1.32B initial-term contract value | $1.32B (rent, 12 years) | AIB Data Centers |
Trend across recent issues
- Capital in
- $19.6B, $24.6B, $25.5B, n/a, n/a, $3B, $4.2B, $1.4B
- Revenue out
- $8B, $8B, $8B, n/a, n/a, n/a, n/a, n/a
Category
On-Prem / Hybrid.
Enterprise GPU clusters, sovereign and national programs, open-weight and on-device deployment
- Capital in
- No closed program; JERA, Dell and RHAELM signed a non-binding MoU for a >$15B, 400 MW behind-the-meter campus at Chiba (the plant feeds the campus directly, bypassing the grid), with Apollo as intended financing partnervs No comparable disclosed program in the window · Flat
- Revenue out
- Indirectvs Indirect · Flat
- Burn / rev
- Not applicable; the category's revenue is captured in OEM and chip-vendor filings, not in a disclosed AI segmentLower means more capital out than in.
The read
The on-prem category produced headlines and no closings. JERA, Dell and RHAELM signed a memorandum of understanding, which is not a binding contract, for a 400 MW behind-the-meter campus at JERA's Chiba thermal station that the parties size at more than $15 billion, with Apollo Global Management as the intended financing partner to RHAELM: private credit positioned to fund sovereign compute, the same move the neocloud row describes for GPU debt. Huawei's Ascend 950 cluster cloud service went commercial in China with a 1,024-card China Mobile deployment, reported by trade press rather than a filing. Nvidia's 64GB DGX Spark at $4,999, alongside a 128GB model now about 75% above its launch price, is the memory squeeze reaching the desktop. Open-weight supply broadened at the frontier-adjacent tier: Xiaomi's MiMo-V2.6-Pro weights were verified under MIT and Aleph Alpha released Kolibri-1 under Apache 2.0. None of this is disclosed capital into the category.
This week's transactions
| Date | Transaction | Amount | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 1 | JERA, Dell and RHAELM MoU for >$15B, 400 MW behind-the-meter AI campus at Chiba (non-binding); Apollo intended financing partner | >$15B (MoU) | JERA |
| Sep 30 | Huawei Ascend 950 cluster cloud service goes commercial in China; China Mobile 1,024-card deployment (trade press) | Not disclosed | TrendForce China |
| Oct 2 | Nvidia DGX Spark 64GB at $4,999; 128GB model at $6,950 | Not disclosed | The Register |
Trend across recent issues
- Capital in
- $103B, $103B, $103B, n/a, n/a, $0B, $0B, $0B
- Revenue out
- $38B, $38B, $38B, n/a, n/a, n/a, n/a, n/a