Capital flow drill-down
Money in, revenue out: the full breakdown.
Issue 17 · Week 33 of 2026.
The four-category capital scorecard expanded with named transactions, burn-to-revenue context, and per-category trends across recent issues. Each row corresponds to a row in the summary table on the issue page.
Capital flow scorecard
Capital in, revenue out, burn ratio, and movement.
| Category | Capital in | Revenue out | Burn to revenue | Movement |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frontier LabsOpenAI, Anthropic, Google DeepMind, xAI | ~$95BPrior ~$95B · Flat | ~$21BPrior ~$21B · Flat | ~4.5x | No lab closed primary financing in-window. OpenAI's ~$7B transaction was an employee tender at an $852B valuation — secondary liquidity at a flat mark rather than new capital into the business. |
| Hyperscaler-HostedAzure-OpenAI, AWS-Anthropic, Google Cloud-Gemini, Oracle-OCI | ~$250BPrior ~$250B · Flat | ~$70BPrior ~$70B · Flat | ~3.6x | No hyperscaler reported or revised capex guidance in-window; the latest moves were the late-July earnings cycle. Activity was product-side: Oracle added day-zero open-model serving and background execution for long-running agent tasks on OCI. |
| NeocloudsCoreWeave, Nscale, Crusoe, Lambda, Fluidstack, IREN | ~$19.6BPrior ~$17B · Up | ~$8BPrior ~$5B · Up | ~2.5x | The week's centre of gravity. CoreWeave closed a $2.6B delayed-draw term loan at SOFR+550 maturing September 2031 and printed $2,575M of Q2 revenue against $640M of net interest expense; Nebius printed $582.3M of Q2 revenue, up 454%, with $5.66B of property and equipment purchases. |
| On-Prem / HybridEnterprise GPU clusters, sovereign and national programs, Cisco / Dell / HPE | ~$103BPrior ~$101B · Up | ~$38BPrior ~$36B · Up | ~2.7x | Cisco's FY2026 print gave the category its first fully audited AI number: $9.3B of hyperscaler AI infrastructure orders for the year, $4B in Q4, and roughly $7.5B of AI infrastructure revenue guided for FY2027. Meta's Apache 2.0 release of Muse Glimmer is a second-order demand catalyst for on-prem inference. |
Category
Frontier Labs.
OpenAI, Anthropic, Google DeepMind, xAI
- Capital in
- ~$95Bvs ~$95B · Flat
- Revenue out
- ~$21Bvs ~$21B · Flat
- Burn / rev
- ~4.5xLower means more capital out than in.
The read
The category's week was about liquidity and listing positioning rather than funding. OpenAI completed a roughly $7B employee tender at $852B, flat against its March primary round, which buys employee liquidity without forcing a new mark. Separately, press reported that Anthropic investors are modelling a $2T-plus October listing on year-end revenue run-rate assumptions of $100-120B; Anthropic declined to comment and is in a quiet period following a June confidential filing, so those are investor models rather than company guidance and should not be carried into any comparison table. The absence of a primary raise in the heaviest model-release week of the year is itself the signal: the labs shipped six models without needing to price new equity to do it.
This week's transactions
| Date | Transaction | Amount | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 10 | OpenAI employee tender offer completed at $852B valuation, flat to March primary | ~$7B | CNBC, Bloomberg, TechCrunch |
| Aug 13-14 | Anthropic investors reported modelling a $2T-plus October IPO; company declined comment, quiet period in effect | Investor model, not company guidance | Financial Times via Financial Post and Fortune |
Trend across recent issues
- Capital in
- $95B, $95B, $95B, $95B, $95B, $95B, $95B, $95B
- Revenue out
- $21B, $21B, $21B, $21B, $21B, $21B, $21B, $21B
Category
Hyperscaler-Hosted.
Azure-OpenAI, AWS-Anthropic, Google Cloud-Gemini, Oracle-OCI
- Capital in
- ~$250Bvs ~$250B · Flat
- Revenue out
- ~$70Bvs ~$70B · Flat
- Burn / rev
- ~3.6xLower means more capital out than in.
The read
A structurally quiet week for the category's capital, and a busy one for its product surface. Oracle shipped day-zero Nemotron 3.5 Lightning availability and a Responses API background mode aimed at long-running agentic work, which is the category doing what it does best: absorbing the agent-infrastructure layer that independent vendors were charging for. Google's Gemini 3.7 Flash pricing is the more consequential move for this row, because a published doubling on January 1 sets a floor under how far hosted inference margin will be allowed to compress. Microsoft's reported Maia 300 capacity talks, if they convert, would move custom silicon share — but the company disputed the reported figures, so nothing here is bookable yet.
This week's transactions
| Date | Transaction | Amount | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 11 | IBM and Together AI signed a multi-year agreement for an NVIDIA HGX B300 inference cluster on IBM Cloud, roughly 2,000 Blackwell chips available Q1 2027 | $240M | IBM Newsroom, Reuters |
| Aug 11-12 | Oracle added day-zero Nemotron 3.5 Lightning on OCI plus Responses API background mode for long-running agentic tasks | Not disclosed | Oracle AI blog |
Trend across recent issues
- Capital in
- $187B, $187B, $187B, $210B, $230B, $250B, $250B, $250B
- Revenue out
- $62B, $62B, $62B, $62B, $62B, $70B, $70B, $70B
Category
Neoclouds.
CoreWeave, Nscale, Crusoe, Lambda, Fluidstack, IREN
- Capital in
- ~$19.6Bvs ~$17B · Up
- Revenue out
- ~$8Bvs ~$5B · Up
- Burn / rev
- ~2.5xLower means more capital out than in.
The read
Two public neoclouds disclosed inside 48 hours and the pair reads as one story about financing structure. CoreWeave's new facility carries a DSCR covenant of at least 1.35x and Moody's Ba2 / Fitch BB+ ratings, and the company itself framed the term as roughly five-year debt against roughly three-year average underlying contracts — lenders explicitly underwriting GPU residual value past the contracted period. Its backlog grew to $104.2B, but interest expense reached 24.9% of revenue and the $626M net loss came almost entirely from financing rather than operations, where the loss was $49M. Nebius shows the same shape with a healthier income statement: 454% revenue growth and $236.2M of adjusted EBITDA against $5.66B of capital equipment purchases in a single quarter, funded substantially by customer prepayments. The category is not capital-constrained. It is duration-exposed.
This week's transactions
| Date | Transaction | Amount | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 10 | CoreWeave closed a delayed-draw term loan at SOFR+550, maturing September 1 2031, DSCR covenant of at least 1.35x, rated Moody's Ba2 / Fitch BB+ | $2.6B | CoreWeave IR, SEC Form 8-K |
| Aug 11 | CoreWeave Q2 2026: revenue $2,575M (+112% YoY), backlog $104.2B (+246% YoY), net interest expense $640M, net loss $626M, FY26 revenue guidance raised to $12.4-13.2B and capex guided to $35-39B | $2.575B quarterly revenue | CoreWeave earnings release, SEC 8-K and 10-Q |
| Aug 12 | Nebius Q2 2026: revenue $582.3M (+454% YoY), adjusted EBITDA $236.2M, property and equipment purchases $5.66B | $582.3M quarterly revenue | Nebius IR, Form 6-K |
| Aug 11-13 | DayOne Data Centers reported to have confidentially filed for a US IPO and Vantage Data Centers reported exploring a listing or sale — both anonymous-source, neither company-confirmed | Reported ~$5B and ~$10B raises respectively | Bloomberg Law, Reuters |
Trend across recent issues
- Capital in
- $12.7B, $13.5B, $13.5B, $17B, $17B, $17B, $17B, $19.6B
- Revenue out
- $5B, $5B, $5B, $5B, $5B, $5B, $5B, $8B
Category
On-Prem / Hybrid.
Enterprise GPU clusters, sovereign and national programs, Cisco / Dell / HPE
- Capital in
- ~$103Bvs ~$101B · Up
- Revenue out
- ~$38Bvs ~$36B · Up
- Burn / rev
- ~2.7xLower means more capital out than in.
The read
Cisco is the reason this row moved. FY2026 revenue of $63.3B with $9.3B of hyperscaler AI infrastructure orders, and guidance of roughly $7.5B of AI infrastructure revenue in FY2027, converts a category that has been carried on estimates into one with an audited order book and a forward guide. Call commentary put the mix at roughly 60% Silicon One systems and 40% optics, with more than 850,000 400G and more than 75,000 800G coherent pluggables shipped to date and Acacia taking over $1B of orders in Q4 — scale-across demand showing up as revenue as campuses fragment under power limits. Separately, Muse Glimmer's Apache 2.0 license removes the legal objection that kept Llama-family weights out of many regulated on-prem pipelines, which is a slower-moving but real demand input for enterprise GPU consumption.
This week's transactions
| Date | Transaction | Amount | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 12 | Cisco FY2026: revenue $63.3B (+12%), Q4 revenue $17.3B (+18%), hyperscaler AI infrastructure orders $9.3B FY and $4B in Q4, FY2027 AI infrastructure revenue guided to roughly $7.5B | $9.3B FY2026 AI orders | Cisco investor release and earnings call |
| Aug 11 | ASE subsidiary SPIL broke ground on a CoWoS packaging plant in Douliu with first-phase operations targeted for 2028 | ~NT$100B (~US$3.1B) | Focus Taiwan, Taipei Times |
Trend across recent issues
- Capital in
- $94B, $94B, $94.5B, $101B, $101B, $101B, $101B, $103B
- Revenue out
- $36B, $36B, $36B, $36B, $36B, $36B, $36B, $38B