Capital flow drill-down
Money in, revenue out: the full breakdown.
Issue 15 · Week 31 of 2026.
The four-category capital scorecard expanded with named transactions, burn-to-revenue context, and per-category trends across recent issues. Each row corresponds to a row in the summary table on the issue page.
Capital flow scorecard
Capital in, revenue out, burn ratio, and movement.
| Category | Capital in | Revenue out | Burn to revenue | Movement |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frontier LabsOpenAI, Anthropic, Google DeepMind, xAI | ~$95BPrior ~$95B · Flat | ~$21BPrior ~$21B · Flat | ~4.5x | No frontier lab closed primary financing in-window. The reported Nvidia backstop of up to ~$250B for OpenAI's Ohio campus is talks-only and is deliberately excluded from capital in. |
| Hyperscaler-HostedAzure-OpenAI, AWS-Anthropic, Google Cloud-Gemini, Oracle-OCI | ~$250BPrior ~$230B · Up | ~$70BPrior ~$62B · Up | ~3.6x | Amazon raised CY2026 cash capex guidance by about $20B to ~$220B and Meta lifted its full-year floor to $130-145B, while Azure passed $100B of annual revenue and AWS re-accelerated to +37%. |
| NeocloudsCoreWeave, Nscale, Crusoe, Lambda, Fluidstack, IREN | ~$17BPrior ~$17B · Flat | ~$5BPrior ~$5B · Flat | ~3.4x | No neocloud financing closed in-window and CoreWeave's backlog remains the March figure until its August 11 print, but Core Scientific contracted about 530 MW to AMD with a path toward 2.5 GW. |
| On-Prem / HybridEnterprise GPU clusters, sovereign and national programs, Cisco / Dell / HPE | ~$101BPrior ~$101B · Flat | ~$36BPrior ~$36B · Flat | ~2.8x | No change to the aggregate. Kimi K3's downloadable weights expand what a private cluster can actually run, while the license's revenue trigger adds a legal gate that did not previously exist for open models. |
Category
Frontier Labs.
OpenAI, Anthropic, Google DeepMind, xAI
- Capital in
- ~$95Bvs ~$95B · Flat
- Revenue out
- ~$21Bvs ~$21B · Flat
- Burn / rev
- ~4.5xLower means more capital out than in.
The read
The structural story is that the next tranche of frontier funding may not be equity at all. A vendor credit wrap lets a lab borrow against a supplier's balance sheet, which changes who bears the risk without changing the lab's cash position. Until definitive documentation exists, runway analysis should treat it as unfunded.
This week's transactions
| Date | Transaction | Amount | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-27 | Nvidia reported in advanced talks to guarantee up to ~$250B of OpenAI Ohio lease and construction debt; Nvidia declined to comment and no definitive agreement is documented | Up to ~$250B (reported, unsigned) | CNBC; WSJ |
Trend across recent issues
- Capital in
- $95B, $95B, $95B, $95B, $95B, $95B, $95B, $95B
- Revenue out
- $21B, $21B, $21B, $21B, $21B, $21B, $21B, $21B
Category
Hyperscaler-Hosted.
Azure-OpenAI, AWS-Anthropic, Google Cloud-Gemini, Oracle-OCI
- Capital in
- ~$250Bvs ~$230B · Up
- Revenue out
- ~$70Bvs ~$62B · Up
- Burn / rev
- ~3.6xLower means more capital out than in.
The read
This is the first week in several where the revenue denominator moved as visibly as the capex numerator. Azure crossing $100B annual and AWS reaching a company-reported ~$169B annualized run-rate improve observability, but neither company breaks out AI-attributable revenue, so the ratio remains an estimate. Backlog figures are contracted, not recognized: Microsoft's $678B RPO converts only about 30% inside twelve months.
This week's transactions
| Date | Transaction | Amount | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-30 | Amazon raised CY2026 cash capex guidance to ~$220B from ~$200B, attributing the increase primarily to memory prices; AWS backlog cited at $496B on the call | ~$220B guide | Amazon; CNBC earnings-call coverage |
| 2026-07-29 | Microsoft reported $41B of quarterly capex, Azure annual revenue above $100B, and commercial RPO of $678B (+84% YoY) with roughly 30% converting inside twelve months | $41B quarter / $678B RPO | Microsoft investor relations |
| 2026-07-30 | Meta reported $31.1B of quarterly capex and raised the floor of its FY2026 range to $130-145B while free cash flow fell 91% to $784M | $31.1B quarter / $130-145B guide | Meta SEC Exhibit 99.1 |
Trend across recent issues
- Capital in
- $185B, $187B, $187B, $187B, $187B, $210B, $230B, $250B
- Revenue out
- $62B, $62B, $62B, $62B, $62B, $62B, $62B, $70B
Category
Neoclouds.
CoreWeave, Nscale, Crusoe, Lambda, Fluidstack, IREN
- Capital in
- ~$17Bvs ~$17B · Flat
- Revenue out
- ~$5Bvs ~$5B · Flat
- Burn / rev
- ~3.4xLower means more capital out than in.
The read
The category's most important number is still unobserved: whether contracted backlog converts to revenue at the pace its financing assumes. Core Scientific's AMD agreement is the more interesting structural event, because it gives an accelerator vendor a named landlord and gives operators a second rack supply chain to negotiate against — both contracted, neither energized.
This week's transactions
| Date | Transaction | Amount | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-28 | Core Scientific and AMD signed 15-year agreements for ~530 MW across five sites with >$14B potential base contracted revenue and AMD rights toward ~2.5 GW; deliveries begin 2027 | ~530 MW / >$14B base term | Core Scientific |
| 2026-07-27 | CoreWeave scheduled Q2 results for August 11; the $99.4B March 31 backlog remains the last official print with no in-window financing disclosure | Not disclosed | CoreWeave investor relations |
Trend across recent issues
- Capital in
- $12B, $12B, $12.7B, $13.5B, $13.5B, $17B, $17B, $17B
- Revenue out
- $5B, $5B, $5B, $5B, $5B, $5B, $5B, $5B
Category
On-Prem / Hybrid.
Enterprise GPU clusters, sovereign and national programs, Cisco / Dell / HPE
- Capital in
- ~$101Bvs ~$101B · Flat
- Revenue out
- ~$36Bvs ~$36B · Flat
- Burn / rev
- ~2.8xLower means more capital out than in.
The read
Open weights got materially more useful and materially more conditional in the same release. Private-cluster owners can now run a 2.8T MoE with a million-token context, but procurement has to classify intended use against the license before deployment, and Inkling-Small's roughly 600 GB BF16 footprint sets a hardware floor that most enterprise clusters will meet only at NVFP4.
This week's transactions
| Date | Transaction | Amount | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-27 | Moonshot published Kimi K3 weights under a license requiring a separate commercial agreement for hosting above $20M trailing-twelve-month revenue, with attribution duties above 100M MAU | Not disclosed | Moonshot AI; VentureBeat analysis |
Trend across recent issues
- Capital in
- $93B, $94B, $94B, $94B, $94.5B, $101B, $101B, $101B
- Revenue out
- $36B, $36B, $36B, $36B, $36B, $36B, $36B, $36B