Capital flow drill-down
Money in, revenue out: the full breakdown.
Issue 13 · Week 29 of 2026.
The four-category capital scorecard expanded with named transactions, burn-to-revenue context, and per-category trends across recent issues. Each row corresponds to a row in the summary table on the issue page.
Capital flow scorecard
Capital in, revenue out, burn ratio, and movement.
| Category | Capital in | Revenue out | Burn to revenue | Movement |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frontier LabsOpenAI, Anthropic, Google DeepMind, xAI | ~$95BPrior ~$95B · Flat | ~$21BPrior ~$21B · Flat | ~4.5x | No new primary capital closed in-window; the action moved to compute sourcing — Anthropic in reported talks to lease up to ~$10B of capacity from Meta over two years (figures explicitly disputed as 'speculative' by one source), on top of its earlier $45B/3yr Colossus 1 access commitment. |
| Hyperscaler-HostedAzure-OpenAI, AWS-Anthropic, Google Cloud-Gemini, Oracle-OCI | ~$210BPrior ~$187B · Up | ~$62BPrior ~$62B · Flat | ~3.4x | Meta expanded Hyperion (Louisiana) to 5 GW and >$50B — the largest disclosed single-site AI investment — while Google was confirmed as the customer behind the 2.7 GW 'Project Tembo' campus near Cheyenne, Wyoming (scalable to 10 GW); Meta simultaneously negotiated to sell capacity to Anthropic. |
| NeocloudsCoreWeave, Nscale, Crusoe, Lambda, Fluidstack, IREN | ~$17BPrior ~$13.5B · Up | ~$5BPrior ~$5B · Flat | ~3.4x | The debt market institutionalized around AI compute in one week: Nebius closed a $775M GPU/contract-backed facility at SOFR+2.50% — 2.5 points over the floating benchmark rate, disclosed in an SEC 6-K (the filing form for foreign issuers) — Fitch rated CoreWeave's proposed $2.6B delayed-draw term loan (DDTL: credit committed now, drawn as GPUs are bought) at BB+ against take-or-pay contracts (customers pay whether or not they use the capacity), and General Compute secured the first inference-ASIC-collateralized facility (up to $400M against SambaNova chips). |
| On-Prem / HybridEnterprise GPU clusters, sovereign and national programs, Cisco / Dell / HPE | ~$101BPrior ~$94.5B · Up | ~$36BPrior ~$36B · Flat | ~2.8x | Japan launched FRONTia, the first national physical-AI infrastructure program — ¥1T (~$6.2B) of government support over five years for a 140 MW / 27,500-Rubin-GPU AI factory built by a 48-company consortium — while New York moved the other direction with the first statewide moratorium on discretionary environmental permits for data centers ≥50 MW. |
Category
Frontier Labs.
OpenAI, Anthropic, Google DeepMind, xAI
- Capital in
- ~$95Bvs ~$95B · Flat
- Revenue out
- ~$21Bvs ~$21B · Flat
- Burn / rev
- ~4.5xLower means more capital out than in.
The read
If a top-2 lab will rent training and inference capacity from a rival's fleet, the labs have become compute-supplier-agnostic — compute is turning into a traded commodity across former battle lines, which weakens hyperscaler exclusivity moats and validates the neocloud business model even as it threatens neocloud pricing. Investors should treat the $10B figure as sentiment, not capital flow (no term sheet exists), but treat the direction — labs renting anyone's GPUs, Meta seeking external compute revenue — as real and structural.
This week's transactions
| Date | Transaction | Amount | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-17 | Anthropic-Meta compute lease talks reported: up to ~$10B over two years, monthly payments, either side can walk; no term sheet — figures called 'speculative' by one source | ~$10B reported (disputed) | NYT; CNBC; CNN |
Trend across recent issues
- Capital in
- $90B, $90B, $95B, $95B, $95B, $95B, $95B, $95B
- Revenue out
- $20B, $20B, $21B, $21B, $21B, $21B, $21B, $21B
Category
Hyperscaler-Hosted.
Azure-OpenAI, AWS-Anthropic, Google Cloud-Gemini, Oracle-OCI
- Capital in
- ~$210Bvs ~$187B · Up
- Revenue out
- ~$62Bvs ~$62B · Flat
- Burn / rev
- ~3.4xLower means more capital out than in.
The read
Meta's twin moves — doubling Hyperion to >$50B on Monday while negotiating to lease capacity to Anthropic on Friday — mark the week hyperscaler capex stopped being purely internal: a fifth cloud is being born out of surplus AI capex (the hyperscaler-turned-compute-vendor role reversal circulated with the NYT's Jul 17 report; the pricing read is ours), and it prices against neoclouds, not Azure/AWS retail. The unresolved question is financing: no JV partner has been named for the Hyperion expansion, and if Meta funds it on-balance-sheet the depreciation drag lands directly on earnings. Buyers should watch the Jul 29 Microsoft print and late-July Alphabet/Meta calls for whether capex guides absorb these adds.
This week's transactions
| Date | Transaction | Amount | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-13 | Meta: Hyperion (Richland Parish, LA) expanded to 5 GW and >$50B ex-chips, up from $27B/2 GW | >$50B | CNBC; SiliconANGLE (Meta post) |
| 2026-07-14 | Google confirmed as customer behind 2.7 GW 'Project Tembo' near Cheyenne, WY (via Jupiter Star Holdings; scalable to 10 GW), per county planning documents | ~$50B reported | DCD; Cowboy State Daily |
Trend across recent issues
- Capital in
- $180B, $181B, $185B, $187B, $187B, $187B, $187B, $210B
- Revenue out
- $60B, $60B, $62B, $62B, $62B, $62B, $62B, $62B
Category
Neoclouds.
CoreWeave, Nscale, Crusoe, Lambda, Fluidstack, IREN
- Capital in
- ~$17Bvs ~$13.5B · Up
- Revenue out
- ~$5Bvs ~$5B · Flat
- Burn / rev
- ~3.4xLower means more capital out than in.
The read
At CoreWeave, credit and equity are telling opposite stories about the same assets: a rated take-or-pay DDTL signals lender confidence in contracted compute cash flows at the exact moment public equity reprices its concentration risk downward (stock down ~35% since the Meta Compute report — secondary-press figure). The honest caveat: this is not yet a sector-wide divergence — Nebius equity rose ~8% on its own debt announcement, with the facility read as easing the equity story. Investors should watch which story wins at CoreWeave's early-August Q2 print; operators should note that GPU-backed credit at institutional spreads materially lowers the capital cost of contracted capacity — for those with bankable offtake.
This week's transactions
| Date | Transaction | Amount | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-17 | Nebius: first senior secured debt facility, GPU/contract-backed, SOFR+2.50%, matures Oct 2030, MUFG-led, oversubscribed (6-K filed; signed Jul 10) | ~$775M | Nebius newsroom; Form 6-K |
| 2026-07-16 | Fitch assigned CoreWeave's proposed DDTL 5.5 (SPV, GPU purchases against take-or-pay contracts) BB+/RR2; IDR affirmed BB- with positive outlook; backlog restated at $99.4B | $2.6B facility | Fitch Ratings |
| 2026-07-17 | General Compute: debt facility from Upper90 collateralized by SambaNova inference ASICs — the first non-NVIDIA-GPU compute-backed facility | up to $400M ($100M initial) | TechCrunch; SiliconANGLE |
| 2026-07-15 | Crusoe + Lancium announced a 1 GW grid-connected AI campus in Childress, TX; construction from Q3 2026 | Not disclosed | DCD |
Trend across recent issues
- Capital in
- $12B, $12B, $12B, $12B, $12.7B, $13.5B, $13.5B, $17B
- Revenue out
- $5B, $5B, $5B, $5B, $5B, $5B, $5B, $5B
Category
On-Prem / Hybrid.
Enterprise GPU clusters, sovereign and national programs, Cisco / Dell / HPE
- Capital in
- ~$101Bvs ~$94.5B · Up
- Revenue out
- ~$36Bvs ~$36B · Flat
- Burn / rev
- ~2.8xLower means more capital out than in.
The read
FRONTia is small next to hyperscaler capex, but it sets the template other industrial states will copy: consortium plus national data plus a single-vendor reference design, explicitly scoped to physical AI and robotics. New York's EO 62 is the counter-template — narrower than the headlines suggest (discretionary state environmental permits only, completed applications exempt), but it hands every data-center opposition movement a governor-signed precedent one day after PJM confirmed the shortage that fuels the opposition. Enterprises siting on-prem capacity should now price state-policy risk alongside grid-queue risk.
This week's transactions
| Date | Transaction | Amount | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-16 | Japan FRONTia: ¥1T (~$6.2B) government support over 5 years (¥387.3B FY2026); Noetra Corp. consortium (Sony, SoftBank, NEC, Honda + ~44 firms) + NVIDIA 140 MW Vera Rubin AI factory, online June 2028 | ~$6.2B / 5 yrs | NVIDIA/GlobeNewswire; Japan Times; NHK |
| 2026-07-14 | New York EO 62: first statewide moratorium on discretionary environmental permits for data centers ≥50 MW while the state develops a generic environmental impact statement | Not disclosed | NY Governor's office (EO text); Data Center Knowledge |
Trend across recent issues
- Capital in
- $90B, $91B, $93B, $94B, $94B, $94B, $94.5B, $101B
- Revenue out
- $35B, $35B, $36B, $36B, $36B, $36B, $36B, $36B