Capital flow drill-down
Money in, revenue out: the full breakdown.
Issue 11 · Week 27 of 2026.
The four-category capital scorecard expanded with named transactions, burn-to-revenue context, and per-category trends across recent issues. Each row corresponds to a row in the summary table on the issue page.
Capital flow scorecard
Capital in, revenue out, burn ratio, and movement.
| Category | Capital in | Revenue out | Burn to revenue | Movement |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frontier LabsOpenAI, Anthropic, Google DeepMind, xAI | ~$95BPrior ~$95B · Flat | ~$21BPrior ~$21B · Flat | ~1.3x | No new financing closed; the posture turned to price competition (Sonnet 5 at $2/$10, Terra promised at half GPT-5.5 cost) and IPO sequencing — OpenAI leaning 2027, Anthropic holding October 2026. |
| Hyperscaler-HostedAzure-OpenAI, AWS-Anthropic, Google Cloud-Gemini, Oracle-OCI | ~$187BPrior ~$187B · Flat | ~$62BPrior ~$62B · Flat | ~3.0x | Meta Compute (reported Jul 1) and SoftBank's SB Neo (announced Jul 2) opened a new lane: hyperscale balance sheets selling excess compute — a monetization response to the free-cash-flow crossover now framed for ~Q3 2026. |
| NeocloudsCoreWeave, Nscale, Crusoe, Lambda, Fluidstack, IREN | ~$13.5BPrior ~$12.7B · Up | ~$5BPrior ~$5B · Flat | ~2.7x | Together AI closed $800M at $8.3B (the week's largest transaction) — but Meta Compute repriced the whole category, with CoreWeave and Nebius down 12-15% intraday and Crusoe reportedly in talks at ~$30B. |
| On-Prem / HybridEnterprise GPU clusters, sovereign and national programs, Cisco / Dell / HPE | ~$94BPrior ~$94B · Flat | ~$36BPrior ~$36B · Flat | ~2.6x | No new drawn sovereign commitment; SB Neo's 10GW US pipeline (DOE-land Portsmouth, Ohio campus, 800MW first phase in 2028) is corporate but state-adjacent, and the FERC/PJM process calendar remains the binding variable. |
Category
Frontier Labs.
OpenAI, Anthropic, Google DeepMind, xAI
- Capital in
- ~$95Bvs ~$95B · Flat
- Revenue out
- ~$21Bvs ~$21B · Flat
- Burn / rev
- ~1.3xLower means more capital out than in.
The read
Both S-1s remain at confidential-draft stage, with Deutsche Bank framing each offering at ~$60B. The strategic tell is pricing: closed labs are cutting rates ahead of the listings rather than harvesting margin. Investors should read the price cuts as demand-generation for the capacity buildout — and as pressure on every model-layer competitor's unit economics going into IPO season.
Trend across recent issues
- Capital in
- $52B, $52B, $90B, $90B, $95B, $95B, $95B, $95B
- Revenue out
- $48B, $48B, $20B, $20B, $21B, $21B, $21B, $21B
Category
Hyperscaler-Hosted.
Azure-OpenAI, AWS-Anthropic, Google Cloud-Gemini, Oracle-OCI
- Capital in
- ~$187Bvs ~$187B · Flat
- Revenue out
- ~$62Bvs ~$62B · Flat
- Burn / rev
- ~3.0xLower means more capital out than in.
The read
Aggregate 2026 top-4 capex of ~$725B (+77% YoY) is now colliding with operating cash flow, and the Epoch crossover analysis became the consensus frame this week. Meta selling raw GPU capacity and SoftBank standing up a 10GW-target neocloud are best read as responses to that pressure. Buyers gain negotiating leverage; investors should watch Alphabet's Jul 28 print as the first test of the crossover narrative against actuals.
Trend across recent issues
- Capital in
- $58B, $60B, $180B, $181B, $185B, $187B, $187B, $187B
- Revenue out
- $15B, $20B, $60B, $60B, $62B, $62B, $62B, $62B
Category
Neoclouds.
CoreWeave, Nscale, Crusoe, Lambda, Fluidstack, IREN
- Capital in
- ~$13.5Bvs ~$12.7B · Up
- Revenue out
- ~$5Bvs ~$5B · Flat
- Burn / rev
- ~2.7xLower means more capital out than in.
The read
The category absorbed two opposing signals in one week: fresh capital at rising marks (Together AI, Crusoe talks) and a violent public-market repricing of customer-concentration risk once Meta's compute-rental plan surfaced — Nebius carries a ~$27B Meta deal and CoreWeave ~$21B. Operators should diversify anchor-customer exposure in any multi-year neocloud contract; investors should now price hyperscaler competition into the category's cost of capital.
This week's transactions
| Date | Transaction | Amount | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-01 | Together AI Series C at $8.3B valuation, led by Aramco Ventures, plus >500MW of investor-capitalized compute commitments | $800M | Together AI |
Trend across recent issues
- Capital in
- $30B, $30B, $12B, $12B, $12B, $12B, $12.7B, $13.5B
- Revenue out
- $3B, $3B, $5B, $5B, $5B, $5B, $5B, $5B
Category
On-Prem / Hybrid.
Enterprise GPU clusters, sovereign and national programs, Cisco / Dell / HPE
- Capital in
- ~$94Bvs ~$94B · Flat
- Revenue out
- ~$36Bvs ~$36B · Flat
- Burn / rev
- ~2.6xLower means more capital out than in.
The read
A reported ~$590B Korean government-plus-chaebol chip-hub plan needs primary confirmation before it moves this category. For hybrid buyers the real news is procedural: the Jul 9 FERC intervenor deadline and PJM's July filings will determine whether large-load interconnection accelerates or becomes a regional litigation map. Site strategy should still start with power and grid process, not GPU SKUs.
Trend across recent issues
- Capital in
- $45B, $45B, $90B, $91B, $93B, $94B, $94B, $94B
- Revenue out
- n/a, n/a, $35B, $35B, $36B, $36B, $36B, $36B