Capital flow drill-down
Money in, revenue out: the full breakdown.
Issue 09 · Week 25 of 2026.
The four-category capital scorecard expanded with named transactions, burn-to-revenue context, and per-category trends across recent issues. Each row corresponds to a row in the summary table on the issue page.
Capital flow scorecard
Capital in, revenue out, burn ratio, and movement.
| Category | Capital in | Revenue out | Burn to revenue | Movement |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frontier LabsOpenAI, Anthropic, Google DeepMind, xAI | ~$95BPrior ~$95B · Flat | ~$21BPrior ~$21B · Flat | ~1.3x | No new frontier-lab round closed; the action moved to open weights (GLM-5.2 MIT) and to Fable 5 staying government-suspended, not to lab balance sheets. |
| Hyperscaler-HostedAzure-OpenAI, AWS-Anthropic, Google Cloud-Gemini, Oracle-OCI | ~$187BPrior ~$185B · Up | ~$62BPrior ~$62B · Flat | ~0.3x | Amazon ($10B Missouri) and Google ($1.5B Alabama) added grid-connected capacity, both explicitly paying 100% of interconnection cost amid FERC cost-shift scrutiny. |
| NeocloudsCoreWeave, Nscale, Crusoe, Lambda, Fluidstack, IREN | ~$12BPrior ~$12B · Flat | ~$5BPrior ~$5B · Flat | ~3x | CoreWeave's backlog ticked to ~$100B with a Cantor estimate of ~$131B by end-Q2; Meta–Crusoe's reported ~1.6GW deal stayed unconfirmed. |
| On-Prem / HybridEnterprise GPU clusters, sovereign and national programs, Cisco / Dell / HPE | ~$94BPrior ~$93B · Up | ~$36BPrior ~$36B · Flat | ~2x | FERC's six show-cause orders put national interconnection rules in play; Cummins–Circe committed 2GW of behind-the-meter gas, and TensorX/Solstice lined up up-to-$1B of EU sovereign-AI financing. |
Category
Frontier Labs.
OpenAI, Anthropic, Google DeepMind, xAI
- Capital in
- ~$95Bvs ~$95B · Flat
- Revenue out
- ~$21Bvs ~$21B · Flat
- Burn / rev
- ~1.3xLower means more capital out than in.
The read
Frontier-lab capital was quiet in-window. No new mega-round priced, and both OpenAI (Jun 8) and Anthropic (Jun 1) remain at the confidential-draft-S-1 stage with nothing publicly visible on EDGAR. The competitive pressure this week came from the open-weight side — GLM-5.2's MIT release at ~1/6 the cost of comparable frontier models — rather than from new financing. Treat this row as capital already committed; the next regime change is a public S-1.
This week's transactions
| Date | Transaction | Amount | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 15-21 | No new frontier-lab round; OpenAI and Anthropic S-1s remain confidential drafts | No public S-1 | CNBC; OpenAI; Anthropic |
Trend across recent issues
- Capital in
- $52B, $52B, $52B, $52B, $90B, $90B, $95B, $95B
- Revenue out
- $35B, $45B, $48B, $48B, $20B, $20B, $21B, $21B
Category
Hyperscaler-Hosted.
Azure-OpenAI, AWS-Anthropic, Google Cloud-Gemini, Oracle-OCI
- Capital in
- ~$187Bvs ~$185B · Up
- Revenue out
- ~$62Bvs ~$62B · Flat
- Burn / rev
- ~0.3xLower means more capital out than in.
The read
Hyperscaler build-out continued with two incremental campus commitments — Amazon's $10B Montgomery County, MO site and Google's $1.5B Jackson County, AL expansion — both framed around paying full interconnection cost so ratepayers are not burdened. That framing is now standard messaging under FERC's cost-shift scrutiny. The aggregate ~$725-805B 2026 capex guide is carried flat (no new top-4 print in-window); these are demand-led capacity adds, not a strategy change.
This week's transactions
| Date | Transaction | Amount | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 15 | Amazon $10B data-center campus, Montgomery County, MO (pays 100% interconnection) | $10B | Missouri DED |
| Jun 16 | Google $1.5B Jackson County, AL expansion (>300MW contracted, Kairos SMR partner) | $1.5B | Alabama Reporter |
Trend across recent issues
- Capital in
- $58B, $58B, $58B, $60B, $180B, $181B, $185B, $187B
- Revenue out
- $13B, $13B, $15B, $20B, $60B, $60B, $62B, $62B
Category
Neoclouds.
CoreWeave, Nscale, Crusoe, Lambda, Fluidstack, IREN
- Capital in
- ~$12Bvs ~$12B · Flat
- Revenue out
- ~$5Bvs ~$5B · Flat
- Burn / rev
- ~3xLower means more capital out than in.
The read
The neocloud row held flat on fresh capital but the backlog signal firmed: company-adjacent reporting puts CoreWeave's backlog at ~$100B as of mid-June (vs the $99.4B Q1 figure), with Cantor Fitzgerald modeling ~$131B by end-Q2 — analyst-estimated, not company-guided. Meta's reported ~1.6GW Crusoe deal (Childress TX + Warrenton MO) remained unconfirmed with both parties declining comment. Operators should keep weighting conversion velocity over headline backlog.
This week's transactions
| Date | Transaction | Amount | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 15 | CoreWeave backlog ~$100B (Cantor estimate ~$131B by end-Q2) | ~$100B (est. ~$131B) | Inc. / Barron's (Cantor estimate) |
| Jun 18 | Meta–Crusoe ~1.6GW (reported, unconfirmed; both declined comment) | ~1.6GW (reported) | Bloomberg |
Trend across recent issues
- Capital in
- $18B, $28B, $30B, $30B, $12B, $12B, $12B, $12B
- Revenue out
- $2B, $3B, $3B, $3B, $5B, $5B, $5B, $5B
Category
On-Prem / Hybrid.
Enterprise GPU clusters, sovereign and national programs, Cisco / Dell / HPE
- Capital in
- ~$94Bvs ~$93B · Up
- Revenue out
- ~$36Bvs ~$36B · Flat
- Burn / rev
- ~2xLower means more capital out than in.
The read
The on-prem/sovereign row is increasingly a power-and-permitting story. FERC's Jun 18 orders force every major RTO/ISO to rewrite large-load interconnection within 60 days, while developers keep building their own generation — Cummins will supply 2GW of behind-the-meter gas to Circe's West Texas campuses, bypassing the ERCOT queue. In Europe, TensorX and Solstice lined up an up-to-$1B GPU/data-center financing facility (capacity, not a drawn commitment). Sovereign and on-prem buyers should assemble firm power and permitting before announcing GPU counts.
This week's transactions
| Date | Transaction | Amount | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 18 | FERC issues six Section 206 show-cause orders rewriting large-load interconnection | All US RTOs/ISOs (60-day clock) | FERC; Day Pitney |
| Jun 16 | Cummins to supply 2GW behind-the-meter gas to Circe Energy (West Texas) | 2GW BTM | mgrid |
Trend across recent issues
- Capital in
- $42B, $42B, $45B, $45B, $90B, $91B, $93B, $94B
- Revenue out
- n/a, n/a, n/a, n/a, $35B, $35B, $36B, $36B