Capital flow drill-down
Money in, revenue out: the full breakdown.
Issue 06 · Week 22 of 2026.
The four-category capital scorecard expanded with named transactions, burn-to-revenue context, and per-category trends across recent issues. Each row corresponds to a row in the summary table on the issue page.
Capital flow scorecard
Capital in, revenue out, burn ratio, and movement.
| Category | Capital in | Revenue out | Burn to revenue | Movement |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frontier LabsOpenAI, Anthropic, Google DeepMind, xAI | ~$90BPrior ~$52B · Up | ~$20BPrior ~$48B · Up | ~1.3x | Anthropic closed a $65B Series H on May 28 at a $965B post-money — the largest private AI raise on record |
| Hyperscaler-HostedAzure-OpenAI, AWS-Anthropic, Google Cloud-Gemini, Oracle-OCI | ~$180BPrior ~$60B · Up | ~$60BPrior ~$20B · Up | ~0.3x | Anthropic's round confirmed ~$15B of previously-committed hyperscaler capital, deepening lab-cloud entanglement |
| NeocloudsCoreWeave, Nscale, Crusoe, Lambda, Fluidstack, IREN | ~$12BPrior ~$30B · Down | ~$5BPrior ~$3.0B · Up | ~3x | IREN signed a ~$9.7B multi-year Microsoft AI-cloud deal (May 29) plus a ~$5.8B Dell GPU purchase |
| On-Prem / HybridEnterprise GPU clusters, sovereign and national programs, Cisco / Dell / HPE | ~$90BPrior ~$45B · Up | ~$35BPrior Indirect · Up | ~2x | SoftBank committed up to EUR 75B to build 5GW of AI data centers in France (May 30, Choose France summit) |
Category
Frontier Labs.
OpenAI, Anthropic, Google DeepMind, xAI
- Capital in
- ~$90Bvs ~$52B · Up
- Revenue out
- ~$20Bvs ~$48B · Up
- Burn / rev
- ~1.3xLower means more capital out than in.
The read
The dominant 90-day inflow is Anthropic's $65B Series H (closed May 28, $965B post-money), now the most valuable private AI company — but note ~$15B is previously-committed hyperscaler capital, not all fresh cash. Mistral added a ~$830M debt facility and reaffirmed a ~EUR 4B France+Sweden buildout while signaling custom-chip ambitions. Revenue is accelerating (Anthropic guided a >$50B annualized run-rate by end-June); operationally the category is still capital-hungry but converging toward breakeven for the leader.
This week's transactions
| Date | Transaction | Amount | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 28 | Anthropic Series H | $65B ($965B post-money) | Company release, TechCrunch, Bloomberg |
| May 28 | Mistral debt facility + EU buildout reaffirmed | ~$830M | Mistral AI summit coverage |
Trend across recent issues
- Capital in
- $50B, $52B, $52B, $52B, $52B, $90B
- Revenue out
- $30B, $35B, $45B, $48B, $48B, $20B
Category
Hyperscaler-Hosted.
Azure-OpenAI, AWS-Anthropic, Google Cloud-Gemini, Oracle-OCI
- Capital in
- ~$180Bvs ~$60B · Up
- Revenue out
- ~$60Bvs ~$20B · Up
- Burn / rev
- ~0.3xLower means more capital out than in.
The read
Top-4 hyperscaler 2026 capex guidance (~$725B) was set at late-April earnings; no new prints landed in-window, so this is deployment run-rate rather than a fresh commitment. Demand stays strong (one cloud unit grew 63% YoY to ~$20B/quarter with a ~$460B backlog). This cohort is cash-generative (capex ~30% of revenue), unlike the pure-play categories; the most consequential in-window item is the confirmation that hyperscaler capital is now embedded directly in frontier-lab cap tables.
This week's transactions
| Date | Transaction | Amount | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 28 | Hyperscaler capital embedded in Anthropic round | ~$15B committed | Anthropic round disclosure |
Trend across recent issues
- Capital in
- $48B, $58B, $58B, $58B, $60B, $180B
- Revenue out
- $10B, $13B, $13B, $15B, $20B, $60B
Category
Neoclouds.
CoreWeave, Nscale, Crusoe, Lambda, Fluidstack, IREN
- Capital in
- ~$12Bvs ~$30B · Down
- Revenue out
- ~$5Bvs ~$3.0B · Up
- Burn / rev
- ~3xLower means more capital out than in.
The read
Within-window: IREN booked a ~$9.7B Microsoft contract (~$1.94B annualized, 20% prepaid) alongside a $3.4B NVIDIA contract and a $2.1B NVIDIA investment option. Recent 90-day capital includes Nscale's $2B Series C ($14.6B valuation) and Nebius lifting 2026 capex guidance to $20-25B. Revenue is scaling fast (sector leader ~$2.1B/quarter) but capex dwarfs revenue, keeping burn-to-revenue ~3x — backlogs, not current cash flow, are the real asset here.
This week's transactions
| Date | Transaction | Amount | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 29 | IREN-Microsoft AI-cloud contract | ~$9.7B | Company release, Reuters |
| May 2026 | Nscale Series C | $2B ($14.6B valuation) | Company release |
Trend across recent issues
- Capital in
- $15B, $18B, $28B, $30B, $30B, $12B
- Revenue out
- $1.6B, $2B, $3B, $3B, $3B, $5B
Category
On-Prem / Hybrid.
Enterprise GPU clusters, sovereign and national programs, Cisco / Dell / HPE
- Capital in
- ~$90Bvs ~$45B · Up
- Revenue out
- ~$35Bvs Indirect · Up
- Burn / rev
- ~2xLower means more capital out than in.
The read
The marquee in-window event is a ~EUR 75B / 5GW France commitment announced May 30, the largest single European AI-infrastructure pledge to date (phase 1 ~EUR 45B / 3.1GW by 2031). Sovereign and national programs continue to dominate gross commitments, though these are largely pre-revenue, nation-building capital. Enterprise/OEM AI-server revenue (Dell/HPE/Cisco class) is the monetized layer, growing but harder to isolate; burn-to-revenue is elevated because sovereign capacity is built years ahead of demand.
This week's transactions
| Date | Transaction | Amount | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 30 | SoftBank France AI data-center program | up to EUR 75B / 5GW | SoftBank release, Choose France summit |
Trend across recent issues
- Capital in
- $42B, $42B, $42B, $45B, $45B, $90B
- Revenue out
- n/a, n/a, n/a, n/a, n/a, $35B