Capital flow drill-down
Money in, revenue out: the full breakdown.
Issue 18 · Week 34 of 2026.
The four-category capital scorecard expanded with named transactions, burn-to-revenue context, and per-category trends across recent issues. Each row corresponds to a row in the summary table on the issue page.
Capital flow scorecard
Capital in, revenue out, burn ratio, and movement.
| Category | Capital in | Revenue out | Burn to revenue | Movement |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frontier LabsOpenAI, Anthropic, Google DeepMind, xAI | ~$95BPrior ~$95B · Flat | ~$21BPrior ~$21B · Flat | ~4.5x | No lab closed primary financing in-window. Anthropic hired former Google TPU founder Amir Salek to lead in-house silicon work — a spend-side commitment against custom accelerators rather than a raise. OpenAI's Sol price cut and EU ads rollout are product-and-monetization moves that do not change the lab's aggregate capital or disclosed revenue in-window. |
| Hyperscaler-HostedAzure-OpenAI, AWS-Anthropic, Google Cloud-Gemini, Oracle-OCI | ~$250BPrior ~$250B · Flat | ~$70BPrior ~$70B · Flat | ~3.6x | No hyperscaler reported or revised capex guidance in-window. The category's motion was structural rather than budgetary: NVIDIA's residual-value guaranty on the SB Energy PORTS-Pike site is a contingent obligation on the accelerator vendor tied to an OpenAI affiliate's 20-year lease, and Marvell's warrant to Google indexes silicon vendor equity to custom-product revenue. Google also bundled Antigravity into Gemini Enterprise on August 20 — see the Application Layer. |
| NeocloudsCoreWeave, Nscale, Crusoe, Lambda, Fluidstack, IREN | ~$24.6BPrior ~$19.6B · Up | ~$8BPrior ~$8B · Flat | ~3.1x | Nebius priced $5B of convertible notes on August 19 — $3B of 0.50% notes due 2030 and $2B of 4.50% notes due 2034, upsized from $4.5B, with roughly $4.94B in net proceeds — the largest AI-infrastructure convertible print of the year. No neocloud reported earnings in-window. |
| On-Prem / HybridEnterprise GPU clusters, sovereign and national programs, Cisco / Dell / HPE | ~$103BPrior ~$103B · Flat | ~$38BPrior ~$38B · Flat | ~2.7x | Pennsylvania Executive Order 2026-05 on August 18 bound GRID requirements to data centers above 25 MW, removed qualifying DCs from Permit Fast Track, and conditioned the state tax exemption on GRID compliance — regulatory friction added to the largest US hyperscale market's interconnect queue. Cerebras announced CS-4 SUPERNOVA with vendor-claimed 750 PFLOPS and first shipments at end of Q3 2026. |
Category
Frontier Labs.
OpenAI, Anthropic, Google DeepMind, xAI
- Capital in
- ~$95Bvs ~$95B · Flat
- Revenue out
- ~$21Bvs ~$21B · Flat
- Burn / rev
- ~4.5xLower means more capital out than in.
The read
A second consecutive week without a primary lab raise, and the interesting motion happened on the cost side. Anthropic committing to in-house silicon under a proven TPU-era architect is the highest-signal lab move of the week, and it turns Anthropic's forward cash needs upward without anyone yet putting a number on the delta. OpenAI opting to run a dated three-month Sol promotion while pushing ads into 31 EU countries and launching a teens product is the demand side of the same problem: it is trying to grow token intensity against a promotional rate rather than the reverse. Anthropic and OpenAI are visibly using different levers to answer the same question about durable unit economics, which is a healthy sign for the category and a slower sign for investors expecting a price war to settle in the next quarter.
This week's transactions
| Date | Transaction | Amount | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20 | Anthropic Skills API, Files API and computer use graduated to GA with 5x rate limits and 1TB/org capacity — enterprise revenue-side event without a disclosed contract change | Not disclosed | Anthropic |
| Aug 21 | Anthropic hired former Google TPU founder Amir Salek to lead in-house silicon (Bloomberg via secondary coverage) — spend-side commitment, not a raise | Not disclosed | Reuters |
| Aug 21 | OpenAI cut GPT-5.6 Sol token pricing by more than 20% for a dated three-month promotional window and published the reversal date at launch | Not disclosed | OpenAI |
Trend across recent issues
- Capital in
- $95B, $95B, $95B, $95B, $95B, $95B, $95B, $95B
- Revenue out
- $21B, $21B, $21B, $21B, $21B, $21B, $21B, $21B
Category
Hyperscaler-Hosted.
Azure-OpenAI, AWS-Anthropic, Google Cloud-Gemini, Oracle-OCI
- Capital in
- ~$250Bvs ~$250B · Flat
- Revenue out
- ~$70Bvs ~$70B · Flat
- Burn / rev
- ~3.6xLower means more capital out than in.
The read
The hyperscaler row is where the residual-value logic became visible this week without a capex disclosure moving. NVIDIA's 8-K puts an OpenAI-affiliate lease inside the accelerator vendor's contingent-obligation footnote — a $105B cumulatively capped guaranty on approximately 4.25 IT-GW of initial commitment beginning 2028 subject to ready-for-service, with an additional ~3.8 GW optional. Marvell's warrant to Google indexes ~7% of the silicon vendor's equity to $500M-per-tranche Custom Products revenue on a $120B implied ceiling and no purchase obligation. Neither transaction moves reported hyperscaler capital in the quarter, but both change how the category's demand should be underwritten going forward. Product-side, Google's bundling of Antigravity into Gemini Enterprise on the same day Anthropic shipped Skills-and-computer-use GA converts the hyperscaler surface into the natural enterprise identity plane for agents, which will show up as an ARR conversation before it shows up as a capex one.
This week's transactions
| Date | Transaction | Amount | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 17 | NVIDIA Form 8-K discloses residual-value guaranty for SB Energy PORTS-Pike (~4.25 IT-GW, 20-year OpenAI-affiliate lease, cumulatively capped at $105B) plus $1.5B NVIDIA equity investment in SB Energy | Not disclosed | NVIDIA Form 8-K |
| Aug 19 | Marvell Form 8-K discloses warrant to Google on up to 58,970,907 shares at $206.58 (~$12.2B fully exercised, ~7% of company) vesting to a $120B Custom Products revenue ceiling with no purchase obligation | Not disclosed | Marvell Form 8-K |
| Aug 20 | Google bundled Antigravity into Gemini Enterprise for new and existing subscriptions — enterprise agent surface expansion at flat published seat pricing | Not disclosed | Google Cloud |
Trend across recent issues
- Capital in
- $187B, $187B, $210B, $230B, $250B, $250B, $250B, $250B
- Revenue out
- $62B, $62B, $62B, $62B, $70B, $70B, $70B, $70B
Category
Neoclouds.
CoreWeave, Nscale, Crusoe, Lambda, Fluidstack, IREN
- Capital in
- ~$24.6Bvs ~$19.6B · Up
- Revenue out
- ~$8Bvs ~$8B · Flat
- Burn / rev
- ~3.1xLower means more capital out than in.
The read
The neocloud row moved on one instrument. Nebius pricing $5B of upsized converts across a 2030 and 2034 stack rolls the same duration story the category has been running: long paper against shorter contracts, with the residual-value assumption sitting inside the debt rather than being written down in the equity. The 0.50% and 4.50% split is the market rewarding Nebius for the growth story on the near tranche and demanding a step-up on the further one, which is a rational answer to a private-mark environment where GPU-collateralized paper is still learning to price. This confirms Prediction p84 from W33 in outline — a second public neocloud rolling tenor beyond stated contract durations — but the confirmation happens outside the deadline window and the exact filing form must be examined against the trigger before scoring. The important thing for this issue is that the category continues to raise durably without needing to price new equity, and the NVIDIA guaranty at PORTS-Pike will make the next round easier for whoever borrows against a site with that footnote.
This week's transactions
| Date | Transaction | Amount | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 19 | Nebius priced $5.0B of convertible senior notes upsized from $4.5B: $3.0B of 0.50% due 2030 and $2.0B of 4.50% due 2034, with ~$4.94B net proceeds; 6-K filed | $5.0B (~$4.94B net) | Nebius Group Form 6-K |
| Aug 18 | Etched raised $700M at ~$21B, Jane Street led after deploying a rack — private mark roughly doubled 26 days after the June $10B round on limited third-party benchmark corroboration | $700M | TechCrunch |
Trend across recent issues
- Capital in
- $13.5B, $13.5B, $17B, $17B, $17B, $17B, $19.6B, $24.6B
- Revenue out
- $5B, $5B, $5B, $5B, $5B, $5B, $8B, $8B
Category
On-Prem / Hybrid.
Enterprise GPU clusters, sovereign and national programs, Cisco / Dell / HPE
- Capital in
- ~$103Bvs ~$103B · Flat
- Revenue out
- ~$38Bvs ~$38B · Flat
- Burn / rev
- ~2.7xLower means more capital out than in.
The read
The on-prem row's motion was regulatory rather than transactional. PA EO 2026-05 makes GRID a binding stage for any DC above 25 MW in the largest US hyperscale market, removes those sites from Permit Fast Track, and conditions the state tax exemption on GRID compliance while requiring local approvals before DEP permits. That is the first state-level rule to explicitly rope hyperscale into a slower permitting lane, and it lands during a national permitting reset — the August 18 NSSTS action circulated in secondary coverage as removing data centers from the CET list, but the primary text does not support that reading and this publication is treating it as noise. Product-side, Cerebras's CS-4 SUPERNOVA is a genuine architectural claim (three WSE-3 Turbo processors, vendor-claimed 750 PFLOPS, first shipments end Q3 2026) that will start showing up in on-prem procurement conversations before the year is out — treat the number as a vendor harness result until independent measurement lands.
This week's transactions
| Date | Transaction | Amount | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 18 | Pennsylvania Executive Order 2026-05 imposes GRID compliance on DCs above 25 MW, removes qualifying DCs from Permit Fast Track and conditions the tax exemption on GRID | Not disclosed | Pennsylvania Governor's Office |
| Aug 18 | Cerebras announced CS-4 SUPERNOVA (3× WSE-3 Turbo, vendor-claimed 750 PFLOPS, first shipments end Q3 2026) | Not disclosed | Cerebras Systems |
| Aug 18 | Qualcomm and Modular unveiled Dragonfly AI200 with Modular Mojo 1.0 shipping under Apache 2.0 (no TOPS figure disclosed at launch for AI200) | Not disclosed | Modular ModCon 2026 |
Trend across recent issues
- Capital in
- $94B, $94.5B, $101B, $101B, $101B, $101B, $103B, $103B
- Revenue out
- $36B, $36B, $36B, $36B, $36B, $36B, $38B, $38B