Capital flow drill-down
Money in, revenue out: the full breakdown.
Issue 12 · Week 28 of 2026.
The four-category capital scorecard expanded with named transactions, burn-to-revenue context, and per-category trends across recent issues. Each row corresponds to a row in the summary table on the issue page.
Capital flow scorecard
Capital in, revenue out, burn ratio, and movement.
| Category | Capital in | Revenue out | Burn to revenue | Movement |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frontier LabsOpenAI, Anthropic, Google DeepMind, xAI | ~$95BPrior ~$95B · Flat | ~$21BPrior ~$21B · Flat | ~1.3x | No new primary capital; the froth moved to secondaries — Anthropic shares traded at an implied $1.2T (up 550% in a year, broker-reported), overtaking OpenAI's ~$908B — even as both labs kept cutting prices (Terra GA at half GPT-5.5; Grok 4.5 at $2/$6). |
| Hyperscaler-HostedAzure-OpenAI, AWS-Anthropic, Google Cloud-Gemini, Oracle-OCI | ~$187BPrior ~$187B · Flat | ~$62BPrior ~$62B · Flat | ~3.0x | Meta committed C$13B (~$9.1B) to a 1 GW Alberta campus — its largest outside the US — fully funding its own 932 MW gas tolling deal because the grid cannot host multiple large AI loads; Microsoft cut 4,800 roles while funding its $2.5B Frontier AI-deployment unit. |
| NeocloudsCoreWeave, Nscale, Crusoe, Lambda, Fluidstack, IREN | ~$13.5BPrior ~$13.5B · Flat | ~$5BPrior ~$5B · Flat | ~2.7x | Delivery, not fundraising: Galaxy Digital completed Helios Phase I on schedule — 133 MW of critical IT load to CoreWeave under a 15-year lease with payments already flowing, against 526 MW committed across three phases and projected revenue above $1B a year. |
| On-Prem / HybridEnterprise GPU clusters, sovereign and national programs, Cisco / Dell / HPE | ~$94.5BPrior ~$94B · Up | ~$36BPrior ~$36B · Flat | ~2.6x | MARA acquired a 2 GW powered-land site in Matagorda County, Texas for up to $600M (8-K filed) — up to 1 GW of grid capacity by October 2027 — taking its potential portfolio to ~4.8 GW; Beijing pushed the Manus buyback toward a Tencent-led consortium at no less than $2B. |
Category
Frontier Labs.
OpenAI, Anthropic, Google DeepMind, xAI
- Capital in
- ~$95Bvs ~$95B · Flat
- Revenue out
- ~$21Bvs ~$21B · Flat
- Burn / rev
- ~1.3xLower means more capital out than in.
The read
The secondary prints are a sentiment signal, not a funding event: illiquid, scarce shares changing hands at ~5 buyers per 2 for Anthropic versus OpenAI. The strategic tension sharpened this week — valuations climbing toward IPO windows while the same labs reprice their core product downward and race to own the harness layer instead. Investors should discount secondary marks and watch what the labs ship (work runtimes, not just models) as the real pre-IPO positioning.
Trend across recent issues
- Capital in
- $52B, $90B, $90B, $95B, $95B, $95B, $95B, $95B
- Revenue out
- $48B, $20B, $20B, $21B, $21B, $21B, $21B, $21B
Category
Hyperscaler-Hosted.
Azure-OpenAI, AWS-Anthropic, Google Cloud-Gemini, Oracle-OCI
- Capital in
- ~$187Bvs ~$187B · Flat
- Revenue out
- ~$62Bvs ~$62B · Flat
- Burn / rev
- ~3.0xLower means more capital out than in.
The read
The Alberta structure is the template to watch: hyperscalers becoming their own utilities rather than queueing for grid capacity, which drains the most credit-worthy anchor loads out of regulated interconnection processes. Meta's internal memo (via Reuters) targets 14 GW of compute in 2027 — double 2026 — with the Broadcom-designed Iris chip entering production in September. Buyers should read Microsoft's restructuring as the labor-side mirror of the same reallocation: sales headcount out, forward-deployed AI delivery capacity in.
This week's transactions
| Date | Transaction | Amount | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-08 | Meta: C$13B, 1 GW (expandable to 1.8 GW) Sturgeon County, Alberta data center with 932 MW Greenlight gas tolling agreement and 250 MW Capital Power ESA | ~$9.1B | AP; Capital Power |
Trend across recent issues
- Capital in
- $60B, $180B, $181B, $185B, $187B, $187B, $187B, $187B
- Revenue out
- $20B, $60B, $60B, $62B, $62B, $62B, $62B, $62B
Category
Neoclouds.
CoreWeave, Nscale, Crusoe, Lambda, Fluidstack, IREN
- Capital in
- ~$13.5Bvs ~$13.5B · Flat
- Revenue out
- ~$5Bvs ~$5B · Flat
- Burn / rev
- ~2.7xLower means more capital out than in.
The read
The Helios delivery is the first clean data point that bitcoin-mine-to-AI conversion economics work on schedule and at contracted scale. After W27's Meta Compute repricing shock, the category needed evidence that booked capacity converts to revenue — this is it, though one delivery does not resolve the anchor-customer concentration question. Operators should keep diversifying; investors should watch CoreWeave's early-August Q2 print for backlog conversion velocity.
This week's transactions
| Date | Transaction | Amount | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-07 | Galaxy Digital Helios Phase I: 133 MW critical IT load delivered to CoreWeave, 15-year lease, lease payments began Q2 2026; Phase II 260 MW targeted H1 2027 | >$1B/yr projected | FinanceFeeds |
Trend across recent issues
- Capital in
- $30B, $12B, $12B, $12B, $12B, $12.7B, $13.5B, $13.5B
- Revenue out
- $3B, $5B, $5B, $5B, $5B, $5B, $5B, $5B
Category
On-Prem / Hybrid.
Enterprise GPU clusters, sovereign and national programs, Cisco / Dell / HPE
- Capital in
- ~$94.5Bvs ~$94B · Up
- Revenue out
- ~$36Bvs ~$36B · Flat
- Burn / rev
- ~2.6xLower means more capital out than in.
The read
Powered land is now a distinct asset class: MARA's $600M buys almost nothing but secured power rights, and the milestone-based structure prices energization risk explicitly. On the sovereignty side, the Manus unwind shows Beijing actively restructuring AI ownership — foreign capital out, domestic consortium in — while reportedly rationing H200 access below 200,000 units to favor domestic silicon. Enterprises with China exposure should treat model and vendor availability there as a policy variable, mirror-imaging the US release-gating regime.
This week's transactions
| Date | Transaction | Amount | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-09 | MARA Holdings: 2 GW powered-land site (1,200+ acres, Matagorda County, TX) from HIF USA; milestone payments, developed with Starwood Digital Ventures | up to $600M | SEC 8-K; MARA press release |
Trend across recent issues
- Capital in
- $45B, $90B, $91B, $93B, $94B, $94B, $94B, $94.5B
- Revenue out
- n/a, $35B, $35B, $36B, $36B, $36B, $36B, $36B