Capital flow drill-down
Money in, revenue out: the full breakdown.
Issue 08 · Week 24 of 2026.
The four-category capital scorecard expanded with named transactions, burn-to-revenue context, and per-category trends across recent issues. Each row corresponds to a row in the summary table on the issue page.
Capital flow scorecard
Capital in, revenue out, burn ratio, and movement.
| Category | Capital in | Revenue out | Burn to revenue | Movement |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frontier LabsOpenAI, Anthropic, Google DeepMind, xAI | ~$95BPrior ~$90B · Up | ~$21BPrior ~$20B · Up | ~1.3x | The frontier-lab capital story went public: SpaceX, with xAI embedded, priced the largest IPO ever and closed near a $2.1T valuation, the first traded read on a frontier lab. |
| Hyperscaler-HostedAzure-OpenAI, AWS-Anthropic, Google Cloud-Gemini, Oracle-OCI | ~$185BPrior ~$181B · Up | ~$62BPrior ~$60B · Up | ~0.3x | Oracle's $638B RPO and ~$70B FY27 capex guide made hosted AI demand visible as contracted backlog, but negative free cash flow sharpened the can-it-be-funded debate. |
| NeocloudsCoreWeave, Nscale, Crusoe, Lambda, Fluidstack, IREN | ~$12BPrior ~$12B · Flat | ~$5BPrior ~$5B · Flat | ~3x | CoreWeave priced $3.25B of senior notes at 8.5-9.625%, putting a hard number on the neocloud cost of unsecured capital. |
| On-Prem / HybridEnterprise GPU clusters, sovereign and national programs, Cisco / Dell / HPE | ~$93BPrior ~$91B · Up | ~$36BPrior ~$35B · Up | ~2x | Sovereign and power-first capacity advanced: NAVER and NVIDIA committed to a gigawatt-scale Korean AI factory, and Stark Power moved to acquire a 5.6GW gas-paired data-center pipeline. |
Category
Frontier Labs.
OpenAI, Anthropic, Google DeepMind, xAI
- Capital in
- ~$95Bvs ~$90B · Up
- Revenue out
- ~$21Bvs ~$20B · Up
- Burn / rev
- ~1.3xLower means more capital out than in.
The read
W24 turned private frontier-lab marks into a public-market signal. SpaceX (xAI merged in February) priced ~$75B and popped ~19% to ~$2.1T on its Nasdaq debut, embedding xAI's value in a traded security, while OpenAI's confidential S-1 (Jun 8) and Anthropic's confidential DRS keep the next two labs pre-public. Investors finally have a frontier-lab proxy to price against; the first audited public S-1 remains the regime change to watch.
This week's transactions
| Date | Transaction | Amount | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 11-12 | SpaceX (with xAI embedded) prices largest-ever IPO; closes ~$2.1T (Nasdaq: SPCX) | ~$75B raised | CNBC; SEC filing |
| Jun 8 | OpenAI submits confidential draft S-1 (not publicly visible on EDGAR) | Undisclosed | OpenAI |
Trend across recent issues
- Capital in
- $50B, $52B, $52B, $52B, $52B, $90B, $90B, $95B
- Revenue out
- $30B, $35B, $45B, $48B, $48B, $20B, $20B, $21B
Category
Hyperscaler-Hosted.
Azure-OpenAI, AWS-Anthropic, Google Cloud-Gemini, Oracle-OCI
- Capital in
- ~$185Bvs ~$181B · Up
- Revenue out
- ~$62Bvs ~$60B · Up
- Burn / rev
- ~0.3xLower means more capital out than in.
The read
Oracle's Q4 print is the clearest in-window evidence that AI infrastructure demand is being booked as long-duration backlog (RPO $638B, +363% YoY), with ~1GW more capacity targeted in Q1 FY27. But FY26 free cash flow was about -$24B and the shares fell on a planned debt/equity raise, so the hyperscaler-hosted row is now a financing-risk story as much as a demand story. Boards should read contracted backlog as real but watch conversion velocity (only ~12% of RPO converts within 12 months).
This week's transactions
| Date | Transaction | Amount | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 10 | Oracle Q4 FY26: RPO $638B (+363% YoY); OCI/IaaS +93%; ~$70B FY27 net capex guide | $638B RPO | Oracle Investor Relations; CNBC |
Trend across recent issues
- Capital in
- $48B, $58B, $58B, $58B, $60B, $180B, $181B, $185B
- Revenue out
- $10B, $13B, $13B, $15B, $20B, $60B, $60B, $62B
Category
Neoclouds.
CoreWeave, Nscale, Crusoe, Lambda, Fluidstack, IREN
- Capital in
- ~$12Bvs ~$12B · Flat
- Revenue out
- ~$5Bvs ~$5B · Flat
- Burn / rev
- ~3xLower means more capital out than in.
The read
The neocloud row held flat on capacity but repriced on funding cost: CoreWeave's $3.25B senior notes ($1.25B at 9.625% plus EUR 2B at 8.5%, due 2032) carry roughly 8.5-9.6% coupons versus ~5.9% on its investment-grade, GPU-backed facilities. That spread quantifies how the market prices balance-sheet risk against contracted-asset risk. Operators evaluating neocloud counterparties should weigh cost of capital alongside backlog.
This week's transactions
| Date | Transaction | Amount | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 11 | CoreWeave prices $1.25B + EUR 2B senior notes (8.5-9.625%, due Jul 2032) | $3.25B | CoreWeave Investor Relations |
Trend across recent issues
- Capital in
- $15B, $18B, $28B, $30B, $30B, $12B, $12B, $12B
- Revenue out
- $1.6B, $2B, $3B, $3B, $3B, $5B, $5B, $5B
Category
On-Prem / Hybrid.
Enterprise GPU clusters, sovereign and national programs, Cisco / Dell / HPE
- Capital in
- ~$93Bvs ~$91B · Up
- Revenue out
- ~$36Bvs ~$35B · Up
- Burn / rev
- ~2xLower means more capital out than in.
The read
The sovereign and power-first build-out kept compounding. NAVER and NVIDIA committed to a gigawatt-scale Korean sovereign AI factory (55MW in H1 2027 scaling toward 1GW; ~$18B revenue goal by 2030), and Stark Power agreed to acquire Sagebrush's 5.6GW co-located, gas-paired pipeline. Neither is a hyperscaler behind-the-meter deal, but both confirm that firm power and land now gate strategic compute. Sovereign and on-prem buyers should assemble power and permitting before announcing GPU counts.
This week's transactions
| Date | Transaction | Amount | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 7-8 | NAVER + NVIDIA gigawatt-scale sovereign AI factory (DSX; 55MW -> 1GW roadmap) | ~$18B revenue goal by 2030 | NVIDIA Newsroom; NAVER |
| Jun 8 | Stark Power to acquire Sagebrush Infrastructure (5.6GW gas-paired DC pipeline) | 5.6GW pipeline | PR Newswire |
Trend across recent issues
- Capital in
- $42B, $42B, $42B, $45B, $45B, $90B, $91B, $93B
- Revenue out
- n/a, n/a, n/a, n/a, n/a, $35B, $35B, $36B