Capital flow drill-down
Money in, revenue out: the full breakdown.
Issue 01 · Week 17 of 2026.
The four-category capital scorecard expanded with named transactions, burn-to-revenue context, and per-category trends across recent issues. Each row corresponds to a row in the summary table on the issue page.
Capital flow scorecard
Capital in, revenue out, burn ratio, and movement.
| Category | Capital in | Revenue out | Burn to revenue | Movement |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frontier LabsOpenAI, Anthropic, Google DeepMind, xAI | ~$50BPrior ~$30B · Up | ~$30BPrior ~$25B · Up | 0.6 | Anthropic +8.5 GW across NVIDIA, Trainium, TPU — forward-buy that locks in vendor diversity and outruns disclosed demand. |
| Hyperscaler-HostedAWS Bedrock, Azure Foundry, Vertex, OCI | ~$48BPrior ~$30B · Up | ~$10BPrior ~$8B · Up | 0.21 | Microsoft absorbs ~1.6 GW from Stargate Abilene — orphaned frontier capacity rerouted into hyperscaler platforms. |
| NeocloudsCoreWeave, Crusoe, Nebius, Applied Digital | ~$15BPrior ~$10B · Up | $1.6BPrior $1.1B · Up | 0.4 | CoreWeave backlog +4x YoY to $66.8B (incl. Meta $21B six-year) — conversion velocity is now the metric, not gross backlog. |
| On-Prem / HybridEnterprise GPU clusters, sovereign and national programs | ~$42BPrior ~$25B · Up | IndirectPrior Indirect · Flat | n/a | DeepSeek V4 open crosses frontier; sovereign programs surge — workload migration from rented to owned compute has a frontier-class trigger. |
Category
Frontier Labs.
OpenAI, Anthropic, Google DeepMind, xAI
- Capital in
- ~$50Bvs ~$30B · Up
- Revenue out
- ~$30Bvs ~$25B · Up
- Burn / rev
- 0.6Lower means more capital out than in.
The read
Frontier labs are the largest single source of forward compute commitments this week. Anthropic alone disclosed 8.5+ GW across NVIDIA, Trainium, and TPU — distributed across three platforms specifically to reduce single-vendor dependency. The other labs are following: OpenAI's Stargate restructure, Google DeepMind's TPU absorption, and xAI's Memphis expansion. The capital is committed faster than disclosed revenue can absorb it; that gap is the entire reckoning.
This week's transactions
| Date | Transaction | Amount | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 7 | Anthropic-Google / Broadcom 3.5 GW TPU deal | $100B / 10 yr | TechCrunch, Broadcom 8-K |
| Apr 20 | Anthropic-AWS expansion to 5 GW | undisclosed | anthropic.com, AWS news |
| Apr 22 | Stargate Abilene capacity restructure passed back to Microsoft | $21B / 1.6 GW | DCD, GlobeNewswire |
Trend across recent issues
- Capital in
- $50B
- Revenue out
- $30B
Category
Hyperscaler-Hosted.
AWS Bedrock, Azure Foundry, Vertex, OCI
- Capital in
- ~$48Bvs ~$30B · Up
- Revenue out
- ~$10Bvs ~$8B · Up
- Burn / rev
- 0.21Lower means more capital out than in.
The read
Hyperscaler capex deployment this week is dominated by Microsoft picking up Stargate's orphaned 1.6 GW capacity. Azure's deceleration on guidance is a wedge against the broader thesis but doesn't yet contradict the aggregate ~$700B 2026 capex trajectory. Q1 prints (Apr 29 - May 6) test whether the platform-pull-through narrative holds under disclosed numbers.
This week's transactions
| Date | Transaction | Amount | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 6 / Mar 27 | Microsoft absorbs cancelled Stargate Abilene capacity | $21B / 700 MW + 900 MW | DCD, GlobeNewswire |
| Apr 25 | Azure guidance commentary heading into Q1 print | n/a | Microsoft IR commentary |
Trend across recent issues
- Capital in
- $48B
- Revenue out
- $10B
Category
Neoclouds.
CoreWeave, Crusoe, Nebius, Applied Digital
- Capital in
- ~$15Bvs ~$10B · Up
- Revenue out
- $1.6Bvs $1.1B · Up
- Burn / rev
- 0.4Lower means more capital out than in.
The read
Neocloud backlog is up 4x year-over-year, but conversion velocity is the unresolved question. CoreWeave's $66.8B total backlog now includes the new Meta $21B six-year commitment through 2032; Crusoe-MS expansion adds another lever; Nebius and Applied Digital are tracking similar scaling. The capital-in / revenue-out spread is the widest in the stack and depends entirely on customers ramping into committed capacity.
This week's transactions
| Date | Transaction | Amount | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 2025 | CoreWeave revenue backlog (cumulative) | $66.8B | CoreWeave Q4 25 press |
| Apr 20 | Meta-CoreWeave six-year through 2032 | $21B | CoreWeave press |
| Apr 22 | Crusoe-MS expansion announcement | undisclosed | Crusoe press |
Trend across recent issues
- Capital in
- $15B
- Revenue out
- $1.6B
Category
On-Prem / Hybrid.
Enterprise GPU clusters, sovereign and national programs
- Capital in
- ~$42Bvs ~$25B · Up
- Revenue out
- Indirectvs Indirect · Flat
- Burn / rev
- n/aLower means more capital out than in.
The read
Indirect spend through GPU shipments, sovereign programs, and enterprise on-prem deployments. DeepSeek V4 crossing the closed frontier on coding is the demand catalyst this week — sovereign programs aggregate to $80B+ of forward commitments across UAE, Germany, France, Mistral-Sweden, GMI Japan, IndiaAI, and the UK AI Growth Zones. The category has no consolidated revenue line; spend shows up in NVIDIA's data-center revenue, OEM hardware shipments, and government program disbursements.
This week's transactions
| Date | Transaction | Amount | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 22-24 | DeepSeek V4 release (open weights, frontier-class on coding) | n/a (catalyst) | HuggingFace, deepseek.com |
| Q1 2026 | Sovereign AI commitments aggregate across 8 countries | $80B+ | various government announcements |
| Apr 21 | UK AI Growth Zones aggregate | $38.5B | UK government |
Trend across recent issues
- Capital in
- $42B
- Revenue out
- n/a