Money in, revenue out — the full breakdown.

The read

Frontier labs are the largest single source of forward compute commitments this week. Anthropic alone disclosed 8.5+ GW across NVIDIA, Trainium, and TPU — distributed across three platforms specifically to reduce single-vendor dependency. The other labs are following: OpenAI's Stargate restructure, Google DeepMind's TPU absorption, and xAI's Memphis expansion. The capital is committed faster than disclosed revenue can absorb it; that gap is the entire reckoning.

The read

Hyperscaler capex deployment this week is dominated by Microsoft picking up Stargate's orphaned 1.6 GW capacity. Azure's deceleration on guidance is a wedge against the broader thesis but doesn't yet contradict the aggregate ~$700B 2026 capex trajectory. Q1 prints (Apr 29 - May 6) test whether the platform-pull-through narrative holds under disclosed numbers.

The read

Neocloud backlog is up 4x year-over-year, but conversion velocity is the unresolved question. CoreWeave's $66.8B total backlog now includes the new Meta $21B six-year commitment through 2032; Crusoe-MS expansion adds another lever; Nebius and Applied Digital are tracking similar scaling. The capital-in / revenue-out spread is the widest in the stack and depends entirely on customers ramping into committed capacity.

The read

Indirect spend through GPU shipments, sovereign programs, and enterprise on-prem deployments. DeepSeek V4 crossing the closed frontier on coding is the demand catalyst this week — sovereign programs aggregate to $80B+ of forward commitments across UAE, Germany, France, Mistral-Sweden, GMI Japan, IndiaAI, and the UK AI Growth Zones. The category has no consolidated revenue line; spend shows up in NVIDIA's data-center revenue, OEM hardware shipments, and government program disbursements.